基于组合赋权-云模型的水上机场场址评价方法

当水上机场与航道共处于同一片水域时,难免会形成水上飞机与船舶的会遇局面,对水上飞机的起降、滑行安全以及附近水域的船舶航行安全造成影响。为保障水上飞机和船舶的安全,评价水上机场场址的合理性与安全性尤为重要。提出了组合赋权和云模型相结合的水上机场场址评价方法,选取了气象环境、水文环境、通航环境和起降水域空域环境4个一级评价指标和11个二级评价指标,构建了水上机场场址评价指标体系。利用改进层次分析法与熵权法分别求得评价指标的主客观权重,以偏差极小化为目标,引入对策模型计算主客观权重最优的线性组合系数,获得组合权重,结合云模型构建了水上机场场址综合评价模型。以镇江大路水上机场为例进行实例验证,结果表明：镇江大路水上机场场址的评价结果为较好。该机场自建成运营以来未发生安全事故,评价结果与该机场的实际运营情况相符。同时在计算过程中云模型兼顾了数据的随机性和模糊性,可以较好地解决模糊综合评价法在隶属度函数选择时的不确定性问题,进一步增加了评价结果的可靠性。与经典的模糊综合评价法进行对比验证,二者的评价结果一致,验证了该模型的有效性和实用性,该模型可用于拟建水上机场的选址,也可对已建机场的营运安全进行评估分析。     

Auction-based tolling systems in a connected and automated vehicles environment: Public opinion and implications for toll revenue and capacity utilization

Autonomous and connected vehicles are expected to enable new tolling mechanisms, such as auction-based tolls, for allocating the limited roadway capacity. This research examines the public perception of futuristic auction-based tolling systems, with a focus on the public acceptance of such systems over current tolling practices on highways (e.g., dynamic and fixed tolling methodologies). Through a stated-preference survey, responses from 159 road-users residing in Virginia are elicited to understand route choice behavior under a descending price auction implemented on a hypothetical two-route network. Analysis of the survey data shows that there is no outright rejection of the presented auction-based tolling among those who are familiar with the current tolling methods. While males strongly support the new method, no clear pattern emerges among other demographic variables such as income and education level, and age. While high income respondents and regular commuters are more likely to pay higher tolls, no statistical significance between different genders, age groups, household sizes, and education levels is found. Based on the modeling results and the hypothetical road network, it is found that descending price tolling method yields higher average toll rates, and generates at least 70% more revenue when travel time saving is 30 min, and improves capacity utilization of the toll road significantly compared to fixed tolls.     

Adapting the shipping sector to stricter emissions regulations: Fuel switching or installing a scrubber?

This paper examines how the existing fleet in the shipping industry can be adapted to the new emission regulations through the two main techniques that currently exist: (a) the use of low-sulphur marine diesels; and (b) the installation of scrubbers. A method is presented here for drawing up an economic assessment of both these techniques under uncertainty. It enables the best option to be selected at any given time taking into account fuel prices (spot and futures), scrubber installation costs, the time that the vessel operates in an Emission Control Area (ECA) and the remaining useful lifetime of the vessel. The paper also considers the possibility of an unexpected change from a non-ECA navigation area to an ECA. The assessment is carried out in a manner consistent with marine diesel and crude oil spot and futures market quotes. Our results show the net present value of investing in the installation of scrubbers and investing in changing fuel types for different assumptions on how vessels are operated. We also analyse increases in fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions as a consequence of using scrubbers and how they affects the financial analysis if such incremental emissions must be paid under a CO₂ pricing mechanism.     

Continuous approximation models for mixed load school bus routing

School bus routing is a complex and expensive transportation problem for many public school districts. Typical school bus routes serve a single school, but mixed load school bus routes carry students for more than one school at the same time. A mixed load policy reduces the number of stops and distance to pick up and drop off children, but it can increase travel distance by visiting multiple schools. This paper provides a general strategic analysis using continuous approximation models to assess the conditions under which mixed loading is likely to be beneficial. We also present a case study for a semi-rural Missouri school district to illustrate the application of the models in practice. Results show that mixed load routing is more beneficial for larger districts, when a large percentage of bus stops are shared by students of different schools, and when schools are closer together.     

市场经济条件下的航海职业教育模式研究

在市场经济条件下，依据高等职业教育人才培养的特点及对航海职业教师的素质的要求，针对当前航运业对高级人才的基本要求和需求情况，“订单”培养与航运企业联合办学是符合市场需求的人才培养的新模式．     

双壳驳模型的结构设计及约束扭转试验研究

本文从双壳驳模型结构设计、扭转试验技术两方面作了系统介绍。 在指导畸变模型设计的理论上,提出了两个独立的几何参数L、t的概念,基本解决了这类模型所必然存在的构件厚度与其它几何尺度不能取同一相似倍数的问题,从而使模型试验结果对实船进行相关预报成为可能。 在约束扭转试验技术方面,设计中采用了双滑轮悬吊支承,油顶-滑轮自平闭式加载系统,百分表随动臂架变形测量装置等,形成一套新的弯、扭组合测试技术,与国外类似试验相比,模型的边界条件更为合理。 本文结论对于箱形结构模型是适用的;所介绍的试验技术对于集装箱船、双体船、工程船和海洋平台等大比例尺模型试验具有一定的参考价值。     

尾矿库污染物传输过程的数值仿真研究及其经验

尾矿库中伴有各种复杂的理、化、生等效应下的污染物传递过程。分析了尾矿中污染物的传输机理和涉及的层流有限速率模型、涡耗散模型、涡耗散概念模型3种化学反应模型各自的特点。结合工程实际,应用FLUENT软件对比分析了三种模型下的尾矿污染过程,模拟结果显示:Laminar Finite-Rate模型的残差曲线迭代到160步开始收敛,Eddy-Dissipation模型的残差曲线迭代到300步后仍未稳定,EDC模型的残差曲线变化较平稳迭代到120步就趋于收敛。结果表明:涡耗散模型下污染物浓度变化规律更明显;计算效率上,涡耗散概念模型比层流有限速率模型模型低;层流有限速率模型和涡耗散概念模型比涡耗散模型的计算更加准确。     

广义摩尔库仑模型及其在FLAC3D中的实现

为了进一步研究材料的本构模型,并对岩土工程中本构模型的研究提供参考,基于摩尔库仑理论关于材料塑性屈服是因为在某截面上的剪应力超过一定值的假设,进行三维应力状态下塑性屈服准则以及流动法则的推导,得出三向应力状态下的本构模型。利用FLAC3D的二次开发接口,通过Visual Studio2008将推导出的本构模型写成一个动态链接库文件.dll,并导入FLAC3D。结合1个算例将开发出的模型同经典摩尔库仑模型进行比较。研究结果表明:推导出来的广义摩尔库仑模型在应力加载过程中,在三维斜截面上先于经典摩尔库仑模型产生塑性屈服,即剪应力在三维斜截面上超过了屈服极限强度。     

突发公共卫生事件下城市轨道交通 系统适灾韧性评估

为提升我国城市轨道交通系统适灾韧性水平,对突发公共卫生事件的特点分析,探讨基于突发公共卫生 事件背景下的城市轨道交通系统适灾韧性。从应急处理能力、乘客管理能力和公共管理能力三个方面构建了城市 轨道交通系统适灾韧性评价体系,采用 AHP 和熵权法分别计算指标主客观权重,并以线性加权法进行组合优化 得出最终指标权重分配,在此基础上建立可拓云韧性水平综合评价模型,计算轨道交通系统面对突发公共卫生事 件的适灾韧性水平等级。以重庆轨道交通为例进行模型应用,验证这一模型在城市轨道交通适灾韧性评价中的可 行性和适用性。结果表明：重庆城市轨道交通系统在突发公共卫生事件影响下的适灾韧性整体水平较好,但疫情 舆情管理控制度、乘客防疫知识储备度、收支管理合理度等二级指标韧性等级为中等水平,适灾和恢复能力较弱。 针对韧性等级较低指标分析原因并采取相应措施,可使突发公共卫生事件下城市轨道交通系统适灾韧性水平得到 有效提升。