基于云重心理论的炮兵群（团）生存能力评估

利用云重心理论构建炮兵群（团）生存能力评估模型步骤为：确定评估对象指标体系、计算指标权重、列出指标的状态值、确定云的重心向量及确定加权偏离度,并通过实例验证了该模型的可行性。此方法简单易行,可操作性强,为炮兵群（团）生存能力评估提供了有效的方法。     

干扰功率控制技术在雷达抗干扰测试中的应用

研究基于等效模型的功率控制方法在雷达抗干扰性能测试中的技术应用。介绍了功率控制技术的提出背景和技术特点,重点分析了功率控制的等效模型和设计方法。详细叙述了功率控制技术在雷达抗干扰测试中的一个典型应用。     

不可压缩液体中自由气核分叉特性研究

空化气泡会引起强烈的声辐射和舰船壳体振动,自由气核振动的跨临界分叉研究对寻求空化气泡的生成机理具有重要意义.通过建立不可压缩液体中自由气核的振动模型,由中心流形定理对该振动模型进行约化,得出中心流形上的跨临界分叉方程,通过该振动模型的分叉研究,提出了产生气泡的新机理,并进行了仿真实验加以验证.仿真结果表明,跨临界分叉是自由气核产生气泡的一条途径.     

基于切片技术的点云数据预处理研究

针对扫描点云杂乱无序的特点,讨论了点云数据预处理的问题,提出了一种新的基于点云切片的数据预处理迭代算法．通过对点云最小包围盒进行均匀分割及分割后点云的密度分析,对密度过大的分割块进行迭代分割,建立了3个方向的点云切片和截面线．结果不仅大大减少了点云数据量,并且在点云密度过大的区域很好地保持了模型的原始特征,同时将原始的无序数据点集转化为具有层列结构的有序组织形式,确定了各点之间的相互关系,为后续曲线曲面拟合做了很好的准备．     

中小型集装箱码头装卸工艺模式分析

在分析中小型集装箱码头特性及发展趋势的基础上,分专用集装箱码头、多用途码头、综合性码头三类来研究装卸工艺的适应性,推荐了几种适合中小型集装箱码头特点的、发展前景较好的装卸工艺模式。     

Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

Investigating micro-simulation error in activity-based travel demand forecasting: a case study of the FEATHERS framework

Activity-based models of travel demand have received considerable attention in transportation planning and forecasting in recent years. However, in most cases they use a micro-simulation approach, thereby inevitably including a stochastic error that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components. As a consequence, running a transport micro-simulation model several times with the same input will generate different outputs, which baffles practitioners in applying such a model and in interpreting the results. A common approach is therefore to run the model multiple times and to use the average value of the results. The question then becomes: what is the minimum number of model runs required to reach a stable result? In this paper, systematic experiments are carried out using Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS (FEATHERS), an activity-based micro-simulation modelling framework currently implemented for the Flanders region of Belgium. Six levels of geographic detail are taken into account. Three travel indices – average daily activities per person, average daily trips per person and average daily distance travelled per person, as well as their corresponding segmentations – are calculated by running the model 100 times. The results show that the more disaggregated the level, the larger the number of model runs is needed to ensure confidence. Furthermore, based on the time-dependent origin-destination table derived from the model output, traffic assignment is performed by loading it onto the Flemish road network, and the total vehicle kilometres travelled in the whole Flanders are subsequently computed. The stable results at the Flanders level provides model users with confidence that application of FEATHERS at an aggregated level requires only limited model runs.     

A Bayesian Methodology for Estimating the Impacts of Improved Coastal Ocean Information on the Marine Recreational Fishing Industry

The study develops a model of recreational fish catch probabilities, based on angler fishing strategies, that is conditional on uncertain information about the coastal ocean environment. We calculate expected catch based on a hypothetical Baseline Data Set and hypothetical data from an Integrated Ocean Observation System (IOOS) to demonstrate potential benefits from IOOS. The role of Bayesian probabilities in Random Utility Models of recreational fishing is identified. The study discusses the types of information that will be required by recreational anglers in the Gulf of Mexico. Results have implications for the construction of ocean observation systems for recreational fishermen.     

Experimental and finite element analysis of fatigue strength for 300 mm2 copper power conductor

The fatigue strength of a 300 mm² stranded copper conductor was investigated experimentally and by finite element (FE) analysis. An analytical model was also developed and validated. Wires taken from the outer layer of the conductor were fatigue tested in tension–tension loading and compared with similar data for wires taken from a 95 mm² conductor. The wire cross section was deformed due to the compacting process that was applied during fabrication. When corrected for stress concentrations due to the deformation the data for the two sets of wire fell within the same scatter-band. Full scale testing was carried out in a specially designed rig with constant tensile load and reversed displacement controlled bending with a fixed curvature variation. The loading is a simulation of the loading of a power cable hanging from a floating vessel through a bellmouth. Conductors were tested in two states; dry and lubricated. A finite element model was established for the copper conductor. The model was formulated by a combination of elastic beam and beam-contact elements that included the effects of friction. The effect of local bending due to contact forces was included in the model. Two contact conditions were investigated; the point (trellis) contact between adjacent layers of wire and the inline contact within each layer and between the first layer (centre wire) and the second layer. The FE model was validated by a calibration test of a full scale conductor, and by sensitivity studies varying the size and the number of elements of the model. Fatigue analysis of the conductor was carried out, based on the S–N curve for individual wires. Taking into account the effects of friction and local bending, agreement was obtained between predicted and experimental fatigue strength of the conductor, for the FE model as well as the analytical model.     

Modelling parking choices considering user heterogeneity

We examine car driver’s behaviour when choosing a parking place; the alternatives available are free on-street parking, paid on-street parking and parking in an underground multi-storey car park. A mixed logit model, allowing for correlation between random taste parameters and estimated using stated choice data, is used to infer values of time, both when looking for a parking space and for accessing the final destination. Apart from the cost of parking, we found that vehicle age was a key variable when choosing where to park in Spain. We also found that the perception of the parking charge was fairly heterogeneous, depending both on the drivers’ income levels and whether or not they were local residents. Our results can be generalised for personalised policy making related with parking demand management.