Impact assessment of extreme weather events on transport networks: A data-driven approach

The present paper presents a data-driven method for assessing the resilience of the European passenger transport network during extreme weather events. The method aims to fill in the gap of current research efforts regarding the quantification of impacts attributed to climate change and the identification of substitutability opportunities between transport modes in case of extreme weather events (EWE). The proposed method consists of three steps concerning the probability estimation of an EWE occurring within a transportation network, the assessment of its impacts and the passengers’ flow shift between various transport modes. A mathematical formulation for the proposed data-driven method is provided and applied in an indicative European small-scale network, in order to assess the impacts of EWE on modal choice. Results are expressed in passenger differentiated flows and the paper concludes with future research steps and directions.     

一种基于动态分析的突变和异常波动预警方法

针对模拟量的突变和异常波动预警,给出一种基于动态分析的、可以应用于各种模拟量的统一预警方法,该方法已被应用于CSM-TH型集中监测程序和智能分析系统中,在多条线700余站现场运行的7年中,收到良好效果,得到用户认可。     

高架快速路上跨宝鸡东编组站方案比选

宝鸡市斗中路高架快速路,跨越宝鸡东编组站的10股轨道线和铁路专用线,同时桥下的城市主干路以框架桥的形式下穿宝鸡东编组站。桥位处需保留现状的地面交通、铁路框架桥和周围的高层建筑,桥址处空间局促,建设条件复杂,导致桥梁墩位布置困难。桥梁的布置方案与施工方案相互影响和制约。上跨方案是控制整条快速路的关键节点。综合考虑主墩的合理位置、恰当的孔跨布置和适宜的施工方案,对矮塔斜拉桥、刚构桥等方案进行详细的对比分析,确定采用(97+97)m的转体刚构桥方案。该方案的安全性和经济性均较优。该桥方案的研究过程和方法,为类似的复杂城市环境下,建设高架桥梁跨越铁路编组站提供参考和借鉴。     

Extreme hawser tension assessment for FPSO vessel during offloading operation in Bohai bay

The Floating Production Storage and Offloading Unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport.Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during offloading operations, posing an operational risk. In this paper, AQWA has been used to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions. Experimental validation of numerical results has been discussed as well.This paper advocates methodology for estimating extreme response statistics, based on simulations (or measurements). The modified ACER (averaged conditional exceedance rate) method is presented in brief detail. Proposed methodology provides an accurate extreme value prediction, utilizing all available data efficiently. In this study the estimated return level values, obtained by ACER method, are compared to the corresponding return level values obtained by Gumbel method. Based on the overall performance of the proposed method, it is concluded that the improved ACER method can provide more robust and accurate prediction of the extreme hawser tension.Data declustering issue has been addressed. Paper highlights ability of ACER method to account for a set of varying sea state probabilities, as required in engineering long term statistical analysis.Described approach may be well used at the vessel design stage, while defining optimal vessel parameters that would minimize potential FPSO hawser tension.     

兰州地铁地温分布特性及其演化规律

以兰州地铁所在地区为研究对象,实测地铁隧道开挖前的地温(简称为初始地温),根据实测数据,提出地铁初始地温预测模型公式。采用非稳态传热的数值模型,分析运营条件下地铁隧道围岩温度的演化规律。结果表明:兰州地铁初始地温随环境气温和埋深的变化而变化;年变温层位于自地表至埋深12m处;年恒温层位于埋深12m及其以下,温度为15℃左右;年变温层中,1年内初始地温变化规律与环境气温变化规律相似,近似呈正弦曲线状分布,但存在相位滞后的现象;1年中初始地温的振幅随埋深的增大呈指数下降趋势。在隧道内空气与围岩之间热交换中,兰州地铁隧道围岩的温度及其梯度、热透厚度(未达到极限时)均与隧道内环境温度、热交换时间成正相关关系,但与距隧道内壁的距离成负相关关系。     

共享停车泊位数量可变下交通流逐日演化规律

为了揭示在共享停车泊位数量可变条件下的网络交通流逐日演化规律,首先构建了共享泊位交易系统,并考虑了交易市场中的共享泊位提供者可以选择2种异质性的价格预期方式,即理性预期方式和幼稚预期方式;而后对共享泊位的均衡价格、2种提供者的占比差、高峰时段公交和小汽车需求的演化规律进行了分析;其次,以2条平行路径的路网为例,对网络交通流量分配的最终演化结果进行了分析;最后,在对上述2个系统的最终演化状态给出定量判据后,以北京市实际路网为例进行了数值试验。理论分析和数值试验结果表明:①对于共享泊位交易系统,若供给曲线斜率小于需求曲线斜率,则共享泊位交易系统的唯一均衡解可实现无条件渐进稳定;否则若理性提供者的交易与预测成本之和大于幼稚提供者,则存在临界提供者选择强度,使得共享泊位交易系统在大于此临界值条件下出现分岔或混沌现象;②对于网络交通流系统,若出行成本对路径流量敏感度小,路径选择概率对出行成本敏感度小,小汽车需求量不大,则系统唯一的均衡解可能是渐进稳定的,否则系统会出现分岔或混沌状态;③当共享泊位交易系统处于渐进稳定状态时,若提供者对共享泊位的价格变动不敏感,用户对其价格变动敏感,潜在共享泊位需求量不大,理性提供者的交易与预测成本之和并非远大于幼稚提供者,提供者选择强度不大,则由于受到共享泊位交易总量的限制,高峰时段的均衡小汽车需求不大,导致网络交通流系统的最终演化状态容易趋向于渐进稳定;④当共享泊位交易系统处于混沌状态时,网络交通流系统会产生更加严重的分岔与混沌现象。     

Competitiveness of container terminal operating companies in South Korea and the industry–university–government network

Burgeoning container port facilities have fostered intensified competition among container terminal operating companies (CTOCs). However, despite research into their survival strategies which identified antecedents of competitiveness including hard factors such as facilities, available cargo and cargo processing ability, softer factors spanning human resource management, networks and strategic alliances with universities and government agencies in industry–university–government (I–U–G) networks have been overlooked. This study aims to examine both hard and softer antecedents of competitiveness as perceived by 152 professionals in South Korean CTOCs; empirical relationships among these antecedents, I–U–G networks, and competitiveness itself; and the significance of the I–U–G network in establishing and improving competitiveness. Posited antecedents of competitiveness included human resources, facilities, service quality, customer orientation, reputation, and government support policy as independent variables; the I–U–G network as a moderating variable; and competitiveness as a dependent variable. Empirical structural relationships revealed that excepting government support policy, each variable significantly affected CTOC competitiveness. Further, the I–U–G network moderated the relationships between the antecedents of competitiveness and competitiveness. Because an effective I–U–G network was pivotal in controlling CTOC competitiveness, improved competitiveness requires not only differentiation of human resources, facilities, service quality, customer orientation, and reputation factors but also I–U–G network developments.     

新建本科院校市场营销专业模块化教学改革——基于岗位和能力导向的应用技术人才培养

通过行业论证和企业调查,明确市场营销职业岗位类别设置及特征,掌握这些职业岗位对应用技术性本科学生知识、能力和素质等方面的现实需求,通过问卷调查本校市场营销专业学生对专业教学的现状及建议,参考广东部分新建本科院校的做法,建立市场营销专业的岗位需求、工作内容、职业能力、模块教学和任务学习为一体的教学模式。     

Evaluating determinants of attractiveness and their cause-effect relationships for container ports in Taiwan: users’ perspectives

The attractiveness of ports is usually a pre-requisite and necessary condition for ports to achieve competitiveness, as well as the springboard to explore the competitive advantages of ports. To determine whether a port is competitive, it is necessary to explore whether it boasts certain factors that make the port attractive to users. The main purpose of this article is to apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique to evaluate key determinants of attractiveness and their cause/effect relationships for container ports in Taiwan. The empirical results showed that: (1) Top six determinates of attractiveness for container ports are ‘ample cargo sources,’ ‘favorable port charges,’ ‘dense ship network and routes,’ ‘low transshipment costs,’ ‘efficient wharf operations,’ and ‘adequate wharfs and back-line land,’ respectively. (2) Among the above six determinants of attractiveness, ‘ample cargo sources’ is the cause determinant. Three determinants of port attractiveness, ‘favorable port charges,’ ‘dense ship network and routes,’ ‘low transshipment costs,’ which are the effect determinants. They are affected by the determinants of attractiveness of ‘ample cargo sources’. In addition, this study discusses the above findings and expects to provide the study results to Taiwan’s port authorities for reference.     

车务可视化信息系统设计与实现

车务可视化信息系统通过三维模型及虚拟漫游的展现形式,将铁路运行及运营的动态信息进行集成和柔性展示,实现旅客服务信息及运输管理相关数据的整合,通过可视化的展现方式既方便旅客及管理人员,又充分展示铁路信息化建设的成果。