基于累积前景理论的无信控路段人车通行冲突博弈分析

无信控路段具有强交互性和高事故率,由于缺乏交通信号将人车进行分离,导致其容易形成人车通行冲突,影响道路通行效率和交通安全.为此,以各道路使用者的损失最小为目标,构建了基于累积前景理论的人车通行冲突博弈模型.通过研究过街行人与机动车辆的交互作用,分析双方决策行为影响因素并构建得失矩阵;同时在考虑决策者主观心理感知的前提下...     

考虑用户时间冲突的停车共享方案优化研究

随着机动车保有量的快速增加,大城市中心区用地的有限导致停车位不足,而许多居民区的私人车位在白天处于空闲状态.停车共享策略可以很好地解决不同群体对同一地块停车需求在时间上的互补问题.然而,停车共享的实施必须要解决好一个问题,即,车位提供者与外部使用者之间的冲突.本文主要研究如何实施停车共享,根据需求调节共享终止时刻、泊位供应率,使得在避免冲突的情况下停车管理者收益最大.     

Dual right-turn lanes in mitigating weaving conflicts at frontage road intersections in proximity to off-ramps

At frontage road intersections located downstream of freeway off-ramps, the use of dual right-turn lanes may provide improved weaving environments for right-turning vehicles from the off-ramp and reduce forced merges toward the desired right-turn bay. This paper investigates the safety impacts of the installation of dual right-turn lanes at frontage road intersections. A two-stage approach is used to estimate weaving conflicts as safety surrogates. In the first stage, micro-simulation models are calibrated based on field data to simulate vehicle trajectories. In the second stage, the trajectories are processed to estimate surrogate safety measures and frequency of weaving conflicts under different conditions. The two-stage approach is validated by correlation analysis between predicted weaving conflicts and actual crash rates. The results show that dual right-turn lanes can reduce weaving conflicts significantly compared to single exclusive right-turn lanes, and the safety benefits increase exponentially as weaving distance is reduced.     

Robust flight-to-gate assignment using flight presence probabilities

In this paper we present a novel method to improve the robustness of solutions to the Flight-to-Gate Assignment Problem (FGAP), with the aim to reduce the need for gate re-planning due to unpredicted flight schedule disturbances in the daily operations at an airport. We propose an approach in which the deterministic gate constraints are replaced by stochastic gate constraints that incorporate the inherent stochastic flight delays in such a way so as to ensure that the expected gate conflict probability of two flights assigned to the same gate at the same time does not exceed a user-specified value. The novel approach is integrated into an existing multiple time slot FGAP model that relies on a binary integer programming formulation and is tested using real-life data pertaining to Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. The results confirm that the proposed approach holds out great promise to improve the robustness of the FGAP solutions.     

高速公路互通立交安全性评价研究综述

高速公路互通立交区道路、交通和行车环境条件的复杂程度远高于基本路段,是制约高速公路运行安全和通行效率的瓶颈路段。互通立交安全性评价研究虽取得了一系列成果,但离实际应用仍有一定差距,有必要对其研究现状进行回顾、总结与展望。为此,针对互通立交安全性评价研究进行系统梳理和总体框架搭建,将其具体分为人因工程理论、交通冲突理论、运行速度协调理论三大理论,事故统计法和层次分析法两大方法,并对其进行综合评述。研究结果表明:人因工程理论适用于主线和匝道的安全性评价,能更准确排查行车安全隐患点、段,但应考虑车辆类型和合理的试验样本量,提高评测指标的稳定性;交通冲突理论适用于主线上存在明显交通冲突区域的安全性评价,但未考虑道路条件对安全性的影响,且应进一步完善交通冲突评价指标体系、划分阈值以及分、合流形式的研究;运行速度协调理论较为成熟,已应用于高速公路基本路段的安全性评价,但主线和匝道的运行速度段落划分和预测模型精度均有待进一步提高;事故统计法的结论客观可靠,但事故数据统计和共享难度大,层次分析法可确定安全性评价的重点内容和关键影响因素,但评价结果主观性较强,2种方法的适用性均存在较大限制。未来研究应针...     

联合机动编队兵力配置冲突消解

联合机动编队兵力配置是攻防作战的前提,众多兵力同时配置产生的冲突制约编队战斗力的发挥。着眼于联合机动编队整体作战效益,对联合机动编队兵力配置中的冲突消解问题展开研究。在分析联合机动编队兵力配置冲突产生原因的基础上,确定消解冲突的原则,针对联合机动编队兵力配置中的典型冲突问题提出消解方法,为解决联合机动编队兵力配置中的冲突问题提供思路。     

基于 Petri 网的终端区冲突避免方法研究*

终端区空域结构复杂,航空器飞行架次过多,是飞行事故高发区,针对该问题,提出一种基于Petri网的终端区冲突避免方法。首先分析终端区空域运行结构,利用Petri网建立终端区空域运行模型,并根据终端区空域管制规则,建立其约束模型。然后综合约束模型,利用库所不变量方法建立终端区空域控制策略。最后针对控制策略进行案例分析,结果表明,此方法能够有效解决终端区空域运行安全问题,减轻管制员负荷。     

Struggling Angel——Comparison between Tess and Marguerite

In literature,there are many successfully created women characters.The essay chooses two of them:Tess and Marguerite.Tess was a typical example in British literature,while Marguerite was a typical example in French literature.Hardy and Dumas fils are the two who were greatly influenced by their own experiences;meanwhile,they witnessed the suffering of the women in the lower class of society.So they could vividly and truthfully depict the inner state of the women in their time.In fact,that's why the two characters were so real to the readers.Both of the two women were regarded as impure and unacceptable to the contemporary people,however,in the writer's eyes,they were not only pure,but also noble in nature.For although they suffered a lot after the turns in their lives,neither of them stopped treating others kindly.Especially when they found their true love,they courageously devoted to it.For their true love,they unexceptionally chose to suffer themselves in order to make their lovers happy after the strong conflict in their heart.In the end,each of the two won others' respect and their lovers' love and understanding.     

基于风险矩阵的干线公路弯道路段交通冲突风险评估模型

为评估干线公路弯道路段(AHBS)交通冲突风险,基于交通冲突前5 min集计交通流数据、冲突路段道路线形特征和行车环境数据,分别建立交通冲突可能性及严重度评估指标体系.集成运用随机森林模型和多层次模糊综合评价法分别确定交通冲突可能性和严重度等级,进而采用风险矩阵法确定交通冲突风险等级.以云南省元双干线公路为例进行验证....     

基于元胞自动机的 城市道路冲突车流建模

为研究无信号控制条件下2条单车道的车辆汇入同一车道时形成的冲突车流特征,通过分析车辆通过冲突点的运动规则,建立城市道路冲突车流的元胞自动机模型。模拟分析在道路处于不同进车概率下车辆的时空运行状态及道路的进车概率对交通流量和车辆平均速度的影响,研究结果表明:其中一条道路的进车概率小于临界值(0.2)时,该道路的交通流量和车辆平均速度不受另一条道路进车概率的影响;其中一条道路的进车概率大于临界值(0.2)时,另一条道路进车概率大于0.01时,该道路的交通流量和车辆平均速度随另一条道路进车概率的增大而减小,直到另一条道路进车概率达到临界值(0.2)。