基于FCM的内河一类船长实操考试效能评估

为解决内河一类船长实操考试效能评估问题,提出了一种基于模糊认知图的评价模型(FCMES).在建立影响因素层的不同评价等级基础上,通过问卷调查辨识出了25个影响因素;据专家意见将收集到的定性数据转化为三角模糊数,得到不同的模糊矩阵;利用模糊推理规则的方法聚合各模糊矩阵,再解模糊化,获取邻接矩阵.采取输入端数、输出端数及中心度3个指数的方法,分析FCMES中各因素的重要程度,选出核心变量.利用Matlab实现对FCMES认知图的推理仿真,检验核心变量的准确性.结果表明,绩效评估、评估员素质、模拟器效能、考试流程设计合理性,这4个影响因素对内河一类船长实操考试的效能有重要影响.     

Spatial econometric analysis of automobile and motorcycle traffic on Indonesian national roads and its socio-economic determinants: Is it local or beyond city boundaries?

The purpose of this paper is to verify the justification provided for a centralized national road policyin Indonesia, namely, that trips on national roads are typically inter-urban, by measuring the spatialdimensions of automobile and motorcycle trips on national roads in Indonesia. The study finds thatmotorcycle trips are characteristically local; by contrast, automobile trips extend beyond city boundaries,although to a limited extent. The results suggest the decentralization of transportation policies for thedevelopment and maintenance of national roads by granting autonomy to local governments when nofiscal externality exists. The results also indicate that road capacity, gasoline prices, income, populationand worker density, city size, and the number of public buses are strong predictors of vehicle kilometerstraveled.     

A tool to aid redesign of flexible transport services to increase efficiency in rural transport service provision

Rural areas generally have lower and more dispersed demands for travel which cannot sustain conventional public transport services and consequently have a greater number of flexible and demand responsive transport services operating. These services usually operate on a stand-alone basis, are often subsidized and are typically only accessible by certain passenger types or for specific trip purposes. This generally results in uncoordinated and inefficient transport provision overall. The Flexible integrated transport services (FITS) system featured in this paper has been designed to address this problem. FITS can be used as a planning tool to assess potential benefits from relaxing operating constraints (e.g., a service's operating boundaries), which can potentially suggest service redesign. It also includes the capacity to assign subsidy payments on a trip by trip basis to increase cost efficiency whilst meeting a greater proportion of transport needs. The case study in the paper focusses on transport to health in the Aberdeenshire and Morayshire areas of Scotland in the UK. Despite flexible transport operators receiving public funds to meet passenger needs, this is currently being supplemented by public bodies paying large amounts in taxi fares in instances where there is a statutory obligation to provide travel but where no other suitable transport service exists. The results demonstrate the potential substantial savings which could be realized by allowing transport operators to redesign their services by relaxing constraints and by the reassignment of subsidies: resulting in more passenger demands being met and a reduction in public spending on taxi fares.     

考虑风险分布特征的危险品运输路径优化（双语出版）

为控制危险品运输风险大小并提高风险分布合理性,兼顾运输商的利益诉求,对多种类型危险品在同一路网内运输时的多路径组合优化问题进行研究。首先根据运输路径物理特征,结合路段风险值给出路径间的物理相异度计算方法,并根据各路段在路网内的地理位置,给出路径间的空间相异度计算方法;然后设置总风险阈值和最小相异度约束,建立同时考虑累积运输风险、运输费用和运输时间的多目标优化模型,改进第2代非支配排序遗传算法（Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-Ⅱ,NSGA-Ⅱ）对模型求解,利用动态拥挤距离来提高群体中个体分布的均匀性;最后通过随机网格网络算例对多种类型危险品在不同起讫点间单次、多次运输场景下的路径选择进行仿真优化,并利用实际路网数据对优化方法的可行性进行验证。结果表明：设置危险品运输路径之间的相异度约束,可减少共用路段/节点数量,避免运输风险在局部区域内过度集中;适当增加累积运输风险,有利于提高路径之间的物理相异度和空间相异度,使运输风险的分布更为分散,同时扩大了运输商的路径优化空间。研究结果可为政府部门对危险品运输风险控制及风险分布管理提供新的方法,为运输商的路径选择提供决策支持。     

陆上空箱调运模糊优化研究

应用模糊规划的方法建立了内陆空箱多式联运调运优化模型,研究多种运输方式下的内陆集装箱空箱调运问题。在调运优化模型的基础上给出了不同运输时间和不同运输费用下的成本最低的调运方案.旨在为船公司提供费用最低的内陆空集装箱调运方案,提高船公司的空箱管理水平。     

基于宜兴市居民出行特征的客运交通发展对策研究

居民出行调查是城市交通规划、建设和管理的基本依据．本文根据宜兴市2002年居民出行调查的有关数据,对人均出行次数、平均出行时耗、出行方式构成、出行目的和出行时间分布等进行了分析,并在此基础上,结合宜兴市交通现状及城市总体规划,从优先发展公共交通、重视自行车交通、控制摩托丰发展、加强交通管制、强化市场机制、加强企业管理和政府扶持相结合以及颁布公交行业服务标准等方面,提出了宜兴市客运交通发展的几点对策．     

浅谈集装箱的表面处理工艺

集装箱在现代物流中扮演着重要角色,其箱体广泛使用表面涂装技术来延长其使用寿命。本文主要从工程的角度,阐述了集装箱表面整个喷涂流程以及需要注意的事项。     

公路客运市场退出影响因素实证分析

通过对广东省公路客运企业和政府主管部门的问卷调查,采用因子分析方法,从影响客运市场退出的相关主体及相关行为中筛选出关键变量．运用非参数检验过程,就各关键变量对退出的影响程度进行比较,最终得出驾驶员和承包经营人的相关行为对公路客运市场退出最具影响的结论,为政府部门进行行业管理和政策制定提供了实证依据．     

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针对传统铁路场站设计以能力放大法赋予其应对不确定因素的能力所存在问题,结合工程设计中的优化设计和现代制造系统中的柔性设计思想,提出了集装箱中心站柔性优化设计是采用优化设计方法,协调中心站系统柔性大小、柔性增值效益以及费用函数三者关系的过程. 运用随机规划方法建立了集装箱中心站优化设计模型,并利用遗传算法对模型进行了求解. 最后,以昆明铁路集装箱中心站柔性优化设计为例,对模型及算法进行了验证. 结果表明,所建模型及算法在赋予集装箱中心站应对市场变化的柔性能力方面具有高效和实用的特点.     

充分发挥道路客运在综合运输体系中的比较优势

以石太客运专线的开通为例,分析了高速铁路的开通对道路运输业造成的冲击,阐述了道路运输相对于铁路运输的优势,并从充分发挥道路运输业比较优势的角度提出了切实可行的建议。