Towards improved port capacity investment decisions under uncertainty: a real options approach

ABSTRACT

Port activity plays an important role in facilitating international trade. Sufficient capacity is indispensable for a port to attract flows to a region and retain them. The capacity decision is the result of a trade-off between investment and waiting costs. Traditional methods to value expansion projects do not deal adequately with managerial flexibility in the face of uncertainty from different sources in the complex port environment. In this paper, real options (RO) models are identified as an alternative method to making project valuations and investment decisions, as they attribute the correct value to managerial flexibility under uncertainty. In order to be able to build and use such RO models for port capacity investment decisions, the sources and implications of uncertainty in the port and the different RO model specifications need to be understood. To this end, both the literature about uncertainty in the port context and the literature about real options models are reviewed in order to provide researchers who want to build their own decision-making models, with the necessary knowledge of both fields. The review makes clear that the complex interactions in and competition between the logistics chains and their actors coming together in ports have significant impacts on port capacity. Uncertainty is also caused by uncertain international trade flows and changes in legislation following new technologies and environmental impacts. An analysis of the components of some general RO models shows how the options of flexible output, investment size and timing are valued by RO models in a setting with demand uncertainty. Moreover, the review presents researchers with insights in how to deal with cooperative and competitive interactions in the chain, time to build, cyclical markets and legislation changes. It also shows how to value the expansion and the phased investment options. The new insights resulting from this review are subsequently combined in a framework that serves as a guideline to build RO models for port capacity investments. Finally, an exemplifying application of the framework is used to build an actual port capacity investment decision model.     

Valuation mismatch and shipping q indicator for shipping asset management

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to develop an adaptation of the Tobin Q investment model for the shipping asset management in order to monitor valuation mismatch and bubble pricing of shipping assets. In this circumstance, the market prices of various shipping assets (e.g., Capesize or Panamax dry bulk carriers in different age profiles) are compared to the measured long-term asset value with second-hand ship prices. The mark-to-market prices of shipping assets are led by current market trends and freight rates, while the long-term asset value is estimated by using past data under certain assumptions (mean reversion, trend reversion). The discrepancy between market prices and the long-term nominal value of a shipping asset reflects any mispricing, which in turn sheds light on investment timing and market entry-exit decision.     

机车重量、轴重和轮重的计算探讨

分析机车重量、轴重和轮重计算的目的,给出了轴重和轮重计算的力学模型,并介绍了目前计算中采用的标准和考察的项点。     

节点验工计价在二连浩特物流园铁路EPC项目中的应用

以二连浩特物流园铁路工程建设为例,阐述EPC项目验工计价应按照各工点在工程量清单中所归属的章节、节点设置无漏项或重复、结合项目工程量清单和施工组织设计设置节点3个方面的要求,遵循计价程序及流程,对工程进行节点设置与划分。为今后总承包EPC项目进行节点验工计价提供借鉴。     

基于工程量清单计价的铁路项目全过程造价管理研究

我国铁路发展深入推进,工程量清单计价模式广泛应用于铁路建设项目。为进一步合理确定工程造价、有效控制铁路工程投资,需要基于工程量清单计价对铁路工程实施全过程的造价管理与控制。此文在分析研究工程量清单对铁路工程全过程造价管理体系影响的基础上,提出进一步完善铁路项目全过程造价管理的有效措施。     

谈铁路征地拆迁验工计价管理

在铁路工程建设中,加强建设项目征地拆迁验工计价管理,不断完善验工计价管理体系,是保证建设资金合理、安全使用和征地拆迁工作顺利进行的重要措施。此文在论述征地拆迁应采用统一标准确认拆迁工程量、计算原则、拆迁范围和补偿标准的基础上,提出只有做好各类资料的归集与审查,完善征地拆迁验工计价程序,才能做好相关工作,并建议国家有关部门应尽快制定配套措施,以保证工程建设中征地拆迁工作的顺利进行。     

铁路工程计价模式研究与分析

随着铁路工程量清单计价模式的逐步推行,明确清单计价模式与定额计价模式的区别,分析现行铁路工程计价模式现状,对深化铁路工程造价管理改革、做好工程计价和造价管理工作具有重要作用。此文从定额计价模式和工程量清单计价模式的概念入手,深入阐述两种计价模式的区别,明确清单计价的优势,再根据铁路行业计价的特点和实际情况,分析现行铁路工程计价模式现状,指出现阶段我国铁路工程实行定额计价与清单计价并行模式的必然性,以此为基础指出＂双轨制＂计价模式在造价管理实践中遇到的问题并提出解决建议。     

简析《建设工程工程量清单计价规范》

2008版《建设工程工程量清单计价规范》与2003版计价规范进行比较,重点解析2008版计价规范的主要内容、亮点及其特点。     

Investor Protection, Ownership Structure and Corporate Valuation

Introduction The extent of legal protection of investors in acountry is an important determinant of the develop-ment of its financial markets[1,2]. In contrast to thedevelopment of Chinese economy, the developmentof stock market is not very satisfying. Co…     

Finding a balance: companies,seafarers and family life

Separation from partner and family has been found to be one of the most significant causes of stress for seafarers, with separation from the family one of the most important ‘stress’ factors influencing a decision to reduce planned sea service. Drawing on in-depth interviews with seafarers' partners in the UK, China and India, this paper focuses on the impact of seafaring on family life, with particular attention given to the effects of differing conditions of service and the range of company support available to seafarers and their partners. The paper concludes that the negative consequences of seafaring can be minimized by such policies as shorter trips, continuous employment (rather than employment by voyage) and opportunities for partners and families to sail. Whilst these measures may have financial costs, these can be off-set by improved retention of seafarers and the avoidance of stress-related illnesses. Indeed, at a time when there is a projected shortfall of well-trained seafarers, such steps may be sound company policy