Effectiveness of travel time reliability indicators in the light of the assessment of dynamic managed lane strategy

ABSTRACT

The aim of traffic management is to ensure a high quality of service for a maximum number of users by decreasing congestion and increasing safety. Uncertainty of travel times decreases the quality of service and leads end users to modify their plans regardless of the average travel time. Indicators describing travel time reliability are being developed and should be used in the future both for the optimization and for the assessment of active traffic management operations. This article discusses the efficiency of certain reliability indicators in an ex-post assessment of a traffic management strategy. Ex-post assessment is based on an observational before–after study. As some factors other than the studied management strategy may intervene between the two periods, and as most reliability indicators require knowledge of the full travel time distribution and not only its average, a methodology is developed for the identification of the impact of these exogenous factors on the whole distribution. Many reliability indicators are split into different parts allowing the identification of the part due to the management strategy impact. The methodology is tested numerically on a managed lane operation consisting of Hard Shoulder Running (HSR) at rush hour on a section of a French motorway. The variation of some reliability indicators appears misleading, whereas the splitting of the indicators increases our understanding of the strategy and highlights its impact. The paper gives the reliability assessment of the HSR field test and discusses different reliability indicators to identify their potential performances and shortcomings.     

Robust traffic assignment model: Formulation,solution algorithms and empirical application

ABSTRACT

The deterministic traffic assignment problem based on Wardrop's first criterion of traffic network utilization has been widely studied in the literature. However, the assumption of deterministic travel times in these models is restrictive, given the large degree of uncertainty prevalent in urban transportation networks. In this context, this paper proposes a robust traffic assignment model that generalizes Wardrop's principle of traffic network equilibrium to networks with stochastic and correlated link travel times and incorporates the aversion of commuters to unreliable routes.

The user response to travel time uncertainty is modeled using the robust cost (RC) measure (defined as a weighted combination of the mean and standard deviation of path travel time) and the corresponding robust user equilibrium (UE) conditions are defined. The robust traffic assignment problem (RTAP) is subsequently formulated as a Variational Inequality problem. To solve the RTAP, a Gradient Projection algorithm is proposed, which involves solving a series of minimum RC path sub-problems that are theoretically and practically harder than deterministic shortest path problems. In addition, an origin-based heuristic is proposed to enhance computational performance on large networks. Numerical experiments examine the computational performance and convergence characteristics of the exact algorithm and establish the accuracy and efficiency of the origin-based heuristic on various real-world networks. Finally, the proposed RTA model is applied to the Chennai road network using empirical data, and its benefits as a normative benchmark are quantified through comparisons against the standard UE and System Optimum (SO) models.     

立交隧道相互作用三维数值模拟与实测对比研究

以温福铁路琯头岭隧道下穿同三高速公路隧道为例,研究新建下穿隧道与既有隧道工程之间相互影响的问题。采用ANSYS有限元软件,模拟上覆公路隧道和下穿铁路隧道的位移和应力变化情况,并与现场监控量测结果对比,得到以下结果:下穿隧道拱顶沉降量较小,水平收敛值较大,下穿隧道立交段拱腰和边墙是需要重点支护的对象;上覆隧道在立交段下沉值变大,变化幅度为仰拱边墙拱腰拱顶,隧道中部和下部水平收敛值变化较大;受下穿隧道开挖影响,立交隧道上覆地层受力产生不均匀变化,造成扭矩存在,地面水平位移整体呈现"8"字形,立交隧道的建设对地层产生了较大的转动扰动。     

潮位变化对上海某越江盾构隧道变形的影响规律研究

为了探究潮位变化与越江盾构隧道的沉降和收敛变形之间的关联性,采用数据统计分析、相关性分析和周期性分析方法,对上海某越江盾构隧道的监测数据与同时期隧道上部的潮位变化进行研究分析。研究表明:1)江中段隧道在潮位变化的作用下产生均匀沉降,其波动性与潮位起伏具有近似的周期性;2)陆域段隧道沉降变化的波动性程度与河流的距离有关;3)潮位变化引起隧道管片断面的横径和竖径产生循环的收敛变形,其横径收敛变形大于竖径收敛变形。以上研究可为越江盾构隧道设计、施工和运维提供参考。     

基于FDS公路隧道火灾仿真研究

针对公路隧道突发火灾事故问题,采用模拟软件对隧道发生的火灾进行研究。分析火灾条件下公路隧道内被困人群的疏散行为特点,给出隧道内人员疏散的安全依据,按照隧道火灾条件下通风风速不同时火灾烟气蔓延情况,确定火灾可利用疏散时间(ASET),通过分析人员疏散特点计算出所需的疏散时间(RSET),通过对比得出:通风风速至少为3m/s时才能保证人员的安全疏散。     

基于时间约束的铁路空车调配系统可靠性分析

为弥补现有铁路空车调配系统缺乏空车调配可靠性研究的缺陷,在传统空车调配优化模型的基础上,本文提出了一种新的基于时间约束的空车调配可靠性分析方法。通过深入分析铁路空车调配过程,建立效益最大化目标函数,生成约束条件,以规定时间内的实际到达空车数与需求空车数之比计算出各需求站的空车调配可靠性,再利用各需求站可靠性均值求解空车调配系统的可靠性。最后,使用LINGO软件进行算例分析,论证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

考虑多人相互影响的舰船通道最短路径规划

将时间维引入既定舰船通道网络,把考虑多人相互影响的动态最优路径规划问题转化为时间依赖网络中的最优路径搜索问题。首先,论文的算法为所有人员随机生成走行路径,为了预测网络中的弧(路段)的走行时间,按人员速度从慢到快的顺序依次计算并记录人员到达路径中的各路段首节点的时刻,先记录到的人员将成为后记录到的人员的动态障碍。然后,将遗传算法与网络中弧的走行时间预测方法相结合,借助遗传算法的个体多样性天然地解决了人员走行任意性问题,因而获得了全局动态最优路径算法,并仿真计算了两人以及三人的最短时间路径;经与不考虑人员间相互影响时获得的最优路径相比较,论文的算法获得了人员遇到障碍时(或跟行或绕行)的最优走行路径。最后,借助时间依赖网络中的最优路径充要条件定理,说明了算法的有效性。     

子结构快速多极子边界元法声学迭代计算收敛特性分析

将子结构技术应用到快速多极子边界元法中,形成子结构快速多极子边界元法。通过复杂结构声场计算,对该方法的迭代计算收敛情况以及影响收敛的因素进行研究分析。经研究发现,应用Fortran语言编程求解问题时,矩阵方程构建方式,交界面的规模以及是否填充吸声材料对迭代法的收敛速度有着重要影响。最后,以应用子结构快速多极子边界元法与传统边界元法计算消声器传递损失为例,对该方法的准确性和精度进行验证。     

响应谱法与时程法在管道水锤分析中的对比研究

水锤是输流管道中经常发生的现象,由于阀门操作不当或设备突然停车引起的水锤极易引起管道的振动,造成设备及支架的破坏,严重影响管道系统的正常运行。文章运用CAESAERⅡ软件,对管道中的水锤现象分别采用响应谱法和时程分析法进行分析。结果表明:响应谱法有利于对振动响应过大模态的精确控制,时程法能精确求解时间历程内各时刻系统的整体响应。为全面分析水锤对管道应力的影响提供了一个研究思路。     

斜壁结构的水动力收敛方法研究

在分析波浪中的船舶运动或者计算大型结构的水动力系数时,往往采用时域格林函数方法。时域格林函数的一个重要局限性在于它在计算具有倾斜壁面的水动力系数时,结果很容易发散。时域格林函数本身的奇异性以及高频振动特性显然是水动力发散的一个重要原因。但即使该奇异性通过增加粘性以及表面张力的方式使之消失,计算具有斜壁结构的水动力时,发散现象依然存在。因此,该文提出一种滤波方法,除去时域格林函数的高频部分,留下其低频部分,并定义滤波系数,从而使作用于斜壁结构上的水动力值收敛。通过文中结果与频域兴波格林函数法的比较来确定最优滤波系数。结果表明：最优滤波系数几乎与运动幅值无关,但会受到运动频率以及物面形状的影响。