融合可持续理念的交通规划方案比选方法——以亚特兰大大都市区为例

越来越多的机构开始为交通系统的可持续发展定义,并试图将这一概念融入区域交通规划过程.然而,只有极少数的区域规划机构意识到了交通系统和土地利用变化给经济、环境和社会生活质量(这三者通常被认为是可持续交通系统的三个基本方面)带来的广泛影响.首先,论述了使用多个可持续发展指标的多准则决策方法,并应用其评估亚特兰大大都市区的三...     

欺骗干扰机载预警雷达的辅助决策研究

针对欺骗干扰装有副瓣对消系统的机载预警雷达,分别给出了干扰站一线配置时欺骗干扰信号从雷达主瓣、副瓣进入的兵力部署和兵力需求优化决策方法,推导了在一定战术要求下的指挥辅助决策计算公式。     

基于多属性决策的无人驾驶自主变道决策技术研究

在无人驾驶领域,随着车辆上布置的传感器不断丰富,无人驾驶系统可以从周围环境获得更多的信息,从而为车辆的自主判断行为决策带来可能。然而即使是有经验的驾驶员在进行变道动作的时候也需要格外的小心,因此无人驾驶系统的变道行为分析需要做到足够准确和谨慎,才能保证安全性,这也正是目前为止还没有非常完善的无人驾驶变道决策系统的原因。本文提出一种基于多属性决策的无人驾驶自主变道决策技术,帮助无人驾驶车辆在道路行驶中进行更有效、更安全的自主变道决策。     

Transportation agencies experiences with decision support systems for airport ground access planning

This article reports on a field investigation into the ways that transportation agencies use quantitative and qualitative information for making strategic decisions regarding airport ground access. The study analyzes the value of this information for planning airport ground access improvements at seven major international airport sites.The major finding of the research is that quantitative modeling for strategic decision support is very difficult, costly and time consuming. Modelers are confident that the models are accurate and reliable but executives generally lack confidence in the results. Transportation officials believe that the information supplied is flawed by a number of defects that minimize its value for strategic decision makers. The information defects described in this article provide an analysis of the structural difficulty of using quantitative modeling for transportation problems of strategic importance. To date, qualitative information is not frequently used, but some transportation agencies are considering its application to designing transportation services. Although this study is limited to airport ground access, the authors feel that this evidence, in conjunction with the evidence from other studies in the transportation area, dictates a need for wariness in the development of decision support systems for transportation planners. Developers of decision support systems for transportation planners must be aware of modeling costs and defects and consider how to improve the timeliness, relevance and credibility of information quantitative models provide transportation executives. Fundamentally it is important to recognize that decision makers tend, either singularly or in concert with other individuals or groups, to be the champions of a long-term vision for the community. When modeling produces inconsistent or wide ranging results that contradict their position, decision makers may not only discard modeling activities, but lose confidence in the models altogether. As a consequence, transportation planners are faced with the challenge of how to improve quantitative modeling. The most reliable and effective means for improvement is incorporation of qualitative techniques which provide greater understanding of customer perceptions and human behavior.     

关于海事行政执法自由裁量权的几点思考

文章论述了海事行政执法自由裁量权的定义、种类和目前行使海事行政执法自由裁量权存在的问题及造成这种问题的原因，提出了正确行使规范海事行政执法自由裁量权的建议。     

决策树法在施工合同管理中的应用

决策树法是投标决策阶段常用的一种定量分析方法，但在施工阶段应用较少，此文介绍它的操作原理，并举例阐述在项目实施阶段合同管理方面的应用。     

基于模糊投影决策模型的铁路客运专线融资结构优化研究

通过对融资结构优化决策特点的分析，指出铁路客运专线融资结构优化决策实际上是复杂的多目标决策问题。在此基础上，建立铁路客运专线融资结构优化决策递阶结构模型、决策指标组合权重熵值法与专家主观意见相结合的计算模型以及模糊投影决策评价模型；并编制了决策系统和分析软件；给出了应用实例进行验证，证明此文建立的评价模型能充分利用信息，对表面上看起来复杂的方案进行优劣次序排列，且能使理论和经验结合起来。排序结果能够比较客观公正地反映我国铁路客运专线融资结构的实际情况，可为铁路客运专线的融资结构提供指标评价及方案优选服务，避免因主观原因而造成的决策偏差。     

不完全信息下的CGF主体决策行为及模型研究

着重分析了决策的风险特性,建立了CGF主体的决策行为模型。分析加入感知行为后对决策行为复杂性的影响;提出了一种不确定型决策方法用于处理不完全感知信息对决策行为的影响;最后用示例说明了该方法的有效性。     

舰艇主动力装置战损评估与抢修决策支持系统

针对舰艇主动力装置这一复杂系统的战损评估与抢修国内还没有一个完善的解决方案,提出了战损情况下主动力装置生命力分析和舰艇航速计算的方法;利用贝叶斯网络和损伤树的推理方法实现了装备的损伤定位;探讨了战场环境下主动力装置抢修决策的逻辑关系;构建了系统的基本框架并提出较完善的解决方案,根据此方案开发了某型舰主动力装置抢修决策支...     

The price of uncertainty in pavement infrastructure management planning: An integer programming approach

Currently there is a true dichotomy in the pavement maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) literature. On the one hand, there are integer programming-based models that assume that parameters are deterministically known. On the other extreme, there are stochastic models, with the most popular class being based on the theory of Markov decision processes that are able to account for various sources of uncertainties observed in the real-world. In this paper, we present an integer programming-based alternative to account for these uncertainties. A critical feature of the proposed models is that they provide – a priori – probabilistic guarantees that the prescribed M&R decisions would result in pavement condition scores that are above their critical service levels, using minimal assumptions regarding the sources of uncertainty. By construction of the models, we can easily determine the additional budget requirements when additional sources of uncertainty are considered, starting from a fully deterministic model. We have coined this additional budget requirement the price of uncertainty to distinguish from previous related work where additional budget requirements were studied due to parameter uncertainties in stochastic models. A numerical case study presents valuable insights into the price of uncertainty and shows that it can be large.