轨道交通列车运行延误仿真系统研究

简述了轨道交通列车运行延误仿真系统的基本框架结构;对列车延误模拟分析和运行模拟两个主要模块的模型建立、结构设计、功能实现及算法结构进行了描述.对列车延误仿真的评价指标进行了说明.系统可根据基础设施特点、列车运行组织方案、列车运行图以及列车运行延误的影响等,进行运行组织方案的可靠性、适应性及预期效果的定量分析和评价.     

车辆离散特性研究及仿真

针对目前有关分车道行驶的方案,对不同车辆行驶速度特征进行的研究,以及对不分车道行驶和分车道行驶两种情况下的车辆运行状况进行的有效仿真,可为当前公交优先通行提供较好的理论基础.     

基于延误分析的交叉口信号配时优化研究

为了有效减少在饱和度很大甚至超饱和状态下的信号交叉口延误计算误差,更好地优化周期长度和有效绿灯时间,以总延误为目标函数,从饱和度出发,根据饱和度的计算结果,选取不同的延误计算模型。在饱和度较小时,采用Webster稳态模型;当饱和度增大到0.9以后,采用Akcelik瞬态延误模型。并通过实例计算,把优化结果和原有结果进行比较,说明根据饱和度来选取延误的计算模型能有效减少延误,提高交叉口通行能力。同时对信号周期和有效绿灯时间进行优化,避免了单项优化的弊端。     

需求信息的延迟对牛鞭效应的影响

研究在一个库存环境中,用于未来需求预测的需求信息的延迟对于需求预测的影响.当通过一种补充订货策略控制补货时,这种延迟降低了历史订单信息的波动性,最终减弱了牛鞭效应的影响.     

轮胎滚动阻力与汽车燃油经济性的关系

通过对汽车行驶时轮胎滚动阻力的分析,阐述了不同路面,不同轮胎形成滚动阻力的原因及影响因素.并揭示了降低滚动阻力系数也是提高汽车燃油经济性的重要措施之一.     

一种优化的分布式光网络的动态带宽分配算法

在分析了EPON的拓扑结构及其调度机制的基础上,根据分布式计算的特点,提出了一种优化的可适用于分布式光网络的动态带宽分配算法CPDBA.该算法根据分布式计算任务的实时性和时序性,进行动态调度,并利用数据包的相关性,进行预测动态分配信用带宽.该算法能适用于分布式光网络,并减少了数据包的时延.     

Forecasting journey time distribution with consideration to abnormal traffic conditions

Travel time is an important index for managers to evaluate the performance of transportation systems and an intuitive measure for travelers to choose routes and departure times. An important part of the literature focuses on predicting instantaneous travel time under recurrent traffic conditions to disseminate traffic information. However, accurate travel time prediction is important for assessing the effects of abnormal traffic conditions and helping travelers make reliable travel decisions under such conditions. This study proposes an online travel time prediction model with emphasis on capturing the effects of anomalies. The model divides a path into short links. A Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA) framework is adopted to forecast link travel times based on historical data and real-time measurements. Furthermore, a probabilistic nested delay operator is used to calculate path travel time distributions. To ensure that the algorithm is fast enough for online applications, parallel computation architecture is introduced to overcome the computational burden of the FPCA. Finally, a rolling horizon structure is applied to online travel time prediction. Empirical results for Guangzhou Airport Expressway indicate that the proposed method can capture an abrupt change in traffic state and provide a promising and reliable travel time prediction at both the link and path levels. In the case where the original FPCA is modified for parallelization, accuracy and computational effort are evaluated and compared with those of the sequential algorithm. The proposed algorithm is found to require only a piece rather than a large set of traffic incident records.     

Estimating fuel burn impacts of taxi-out delay with implications for gate-hold benefits

The aviation community is actively investigating initiatives to reduce aircraft fuel consumption from surface operations, as surface management strategies may face fewer implementation barriers compared with en route strategies. One fuel-saving initiative for the air transportation system is the possibility of holding aircraft at the gate, or the spot, until the point at which they can taxi unimpeded to the departure runway. The extent to which gate holding strategies have financial and environmental benefits hinges on the quantity of fuel that is consumed during surface operations. A pilot of an aircraft may execute the taxi procedure on a single engine or utilize different engine thrust rates during taxi because of a delay. In the following study, we use airline fuel consumption data to estimate aircraft taxi fuel consumption rates during the “unimpeded” and “delayed” portions of taxi time. We find that the fuel consumption attributed to a minute of taxi-out delay is less than that attributed to minute of unimpeded taxi time; for some aircraft types, the fuel consumption rate for a minute of taxi delay is half of that for unimpeded taxi. It is therefore not appropriate, even for rough calculations, to apply nominal taxi fuel consumption rates to convert delayed taxi-out time into fuel burn. On average we find that eliminating taxi delay would reduce overall flight fuel consumption by about 1%. When we consider the savings on an airport-by-airport basis, we find that for some airports the potential reduction from reducing taxi delay is as much as 2%.     

一类随机环境下带有随机延滞的时序模型的极限性状

提出了一个随机环境下带有随机延滞的时序模型Xn 1=fZn 1(Xn,…,Xn-Zn 1) εn 1(Zn 1),应用马氏链的随机稳定性理论,讨论了该模型的极限行为,给出了关于{Xn}以几何速率按某种方式收敛的一个充分条件。     

延误对城市轨道交通 换乘站运营的影响及对策

列车运行延误易导致站台爆发大客流,引发 安全事故。首先研究列车运行延误对换乘站运营影响 的机理,然后从换乘站的客流结构、站台有效面积及形 式、换乘通道能力及形式三方面分析影响换乘站延误 处置的因素。进而提出换乘站可采取的客运组织措施 和行车调整措施,分析这些措施的具体内容、适用范 围,并从处置的有效性和影响程度两方面对不同处置 措施的优劣进行比较,为换乘站的延误处置提供依据。