On the cost of misperceived travel time variability

Because individuals may misperceive travel time distributions, using the implied reduced form of the scheduling model might fall short of capturing all costs of travel time variability. We reformulate a general scheduling model employing rank-dependent utility theory and derive two special cases as econometric specifications to study these uncaptured costs. It is found that reduced-form expected cost functions still have a mean–variance form when misperception is considered, but the value of travel time variability is higher. We estimate these two models with stated-preference data and calculate the empirical cost of misperception. We find that: (i) travelers are mostly pessimistic and thus tend to choose departure times too early to achieve a minimum cost, (ii) scheduling preferences elicited using a stated-choice method can be relatively biased if probability weighting is not considered, and (iii) the extra cost of misperceiving the travel time distribution might be nontrivial when time is valued differently over the time of day and is substantial for some people.     

相邻双交叉口的三级模糊协调控制算法分析

提出一种相邻双交叉口三级模糊协调控制的算法,并通过遗传算法对模糊控制器各参数的隶属度函数顶点进行优化,设计实现相邻双交叉口协调控制的三级模糊协调控制器。通过使用MATLAB7．1进行编写仿真程序,在不同到达率情况下进行仿真,并且与传统单交叉口模糊控制方法进行比较。仿真结果表明,三级模糊协调控制可以有效减少相邻双交叉口车辆的平均延误。     

Optimal subwork zone operational strategy for short‐term work zone projects in four‐lane two‐way freeways

Roadside trees in Singapore are regularly trimmed for the purpose of traffic safety and roadside tree‐trimming project is one typical type of short‐term work zone projects. To implement such a short‐term work zone project, contractors usually divide an entire work zone into multiple subwork zones with the uniform length. This paper aims to determine an optimal subwork zone strategy for the short‐term work zone projects in four‐lane two‐way freeways with time window and uniform subwork zone length constraints. The deterministic queuing model is employed to estimate total user delay caused by the work zone project by taking into account variable traffic speeds. Based on the user delay estimations, this paper proceeds to build a minimization model subject to time window and uniform length constraints for the optimal subwork zone strategy problem. This paper also presents a variation of the minimization model to examine the impact of unequal subwork zone length constraint. Since these minimization models belong to the mixed‐integer non‐differentiable optimization problems, an iterative algorithm embedding with the genetic simulated annealing method is thus proposed to solve these models. Finally, a numerical example is carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed models. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling major traffic incident impacts and estimation of their associated costs

Network area-wide impacts due to major traffic incidents can be assessed using a microsimulation approach. A VISSIM microsimulation model for a motorway network has been developed and is used to quantify impacts of a major incident in terms of associated costs. The modelled results reveal that a 65% capacity reduction results in 36% more incident-induced delay when compared with the application of a 50% capacity reduction assumption for a two-hour incident clearance duration that blocked one lane of a two-lane motorway. Additionally, an incident which caused a full blockage incurred 40 times more associated impact costs when compared with a major incident which caused a one lane blockage. A 23% cost saving can be achieved by clearing one lane of a fully blocked two-hour major traffic incident after 90 minutes, while a 37% cost saving can be achieved by clearing all blockages after 90 minutes.     

考虑续航能力的新能源汽车充电站递阶延时布局研究

递阶延时布局对降低新能源汽车充电站选址成本投资决策具有重要作用.本文分析递阶延时布局特征：空间维,以续航能力为半径的邻域衔接覆盖性;时间维,随交通流密度的双螺旋同步增长性;投资维,公共资源配置的有效性.在此基础上,基于截流选址方法建立扩展的OD交通路网,构建续航能力约束下的递阶延时布局优化模型;利用改进的逐步推进法求解,对实际案例进行测试和应用,以及相应投资决策分析.结果表明：递阶延时建设可以节约投资,资金成本越高效果越明显;续航里程增加可以减少充电站建设数量,达到节约投资的目的.本文为实际区域递阶延时充电站布局提供决策依据.     

基于时延数据融合的港口船舶监控策略研究

在对现有港口船舶航行监控方法以及导航技术详细分析的基础上,结合基于Kalman滤波的数据融合技术,讨论了利用雷达、GPS以及AIS数据进行港口船舶导航算法和监控策略的设计问题。针对现有的时延平滑估计存在的缺点,提出一种基于时延的集中式预测估计融合算法。新算法具有很高的实时性和可实施性,同时,将新算法与现有的时延平滑估计融合算法相集成,提出一种完整的船舶导航和监控策略,计算机仿真算例验证了新算法的优越性,同时显示了新监控策略的有效性。     

Smith预报器在船舶航向控制上的应用

在用PD控制船舶航向的基础上,加上Smith预报器,去除闭环特征方程中纯滞后因素的影响,达到改善系统的性能和控制器输出性能的目的。通过对船舶航向控制系统仿真的结果分析可知,如果系统的纯滞后不大,加上Smith预报器后,控制效果基本相同,而增加系统的纯滞后到一定程度时,具有Smith预报器的PD控制明显提高了系统的控制性能。     

多功能车辆总线系统性能分析

现场总线技术在铁路通信领域起着关键作用,分析、评估总线网络的性能可以指导合理的网络配置。本文介绍了多功能车辆总线的数据类型,数据的传输特点以及数据的传输内容。该总线采用周期轮询的介质访问控制方式,在轮询周期内,主设备发送轮询帧,从设备发送响应帧。结合现有地铁车辆故障诊断系统的实际情况,介绍车辆级故障诊断系统的车辆编组结构、控制网络的配置以及系统参数的设定等情况,进而建立数学模型,分析该系统的轮询周期、报文分组在服务站内的平均等待时间,利用排队理论分析网络的延迟性能以及服务站缓存器的容量问题,与实际情况及一般经验参考公式做对比分析,得出系统轮询周期的经验参考值与实验分析值之间的对比结果,提出了该总线网络的性能分析方法。     

线性中立型时滞系统的稳定性判据

用基于频域的特征方程方法研究线性中立型时滞系统的渐近稳定性．利用与系统的状态、时滞及微分项有关的系数矩阵的结构特征，推导了与时滞无关的代数稳定性判据．与已有结果比较，新判据减弱了对系数矩阵的限制，扩大了稳定参数域．用新判据确定了算例的渐近稳定性，而对此算例原有判据已不适用。     

基于多媒体业务移动自组网路由协议的研究--自适应选择与性能分析

基于对多媒体业务的支持，研究了发送速率为144kb／s的条件下移动自组网中路由协议AODV和DSR的性能．通过对它们的性能进行比较和分析，结果表明，AODV能获得较高的报文投递率，且随移动性的变化较小；同时，在高移动性时AODV平均的端到端时延也较小，但在低移动性时DSR能获得比AODV更小的平均端到端时延。