Deconstructing delay: A non-parametric approach to analyzing delay changes in single server queuing systems

This paper introduces an empirically driven, non-parametric method to isolate and estimate the effects that changes in demand and changes in throughput have on delay – in particular, arrival and departure flight delay at airport runways. Classic queuing concepts were used to develop a method by which an intermediate, or counterfactual, queuing scenario could be constructed, to isolate the delay effects due to shifts in demand and throughput. This method includes the development of a stochastic throughput function that is based entirely on data and has three key features. Firstly, the function relies on non-parametric, empirically-based probability distributions of throughput counts. Secondly, facility capacity needs not be explicitly defined, as it is implicitly included in the probability distributions of throughput. Thirdly, the throughput performance function preserves the effect of factors that cause capacity (and, therefore, throughput) to fluctuate over a given period. Temporal sequences of high, moderate, and low capacity are maintained between the observed and counterfactual scenarios. The method was applied to a case study of the three major New York area airports of LaGuardia (LGA), Newark Liberty (EWR), and John F. Kennedy (JFK), using operational data extracted from the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA’s) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) database. The focus was on the peak summer travel seasons of 2006 and 2007, as these airports experienced record levels of delay in 2007. The results indicate that decreases in both demand and throughput were experienced at LGA and EWR, although the decreases in throughput had more significant effects on operational delays as they increased overall at these airports. At JFK, the increase in departure throughput was not sufficient to offset the increase in departure demands. For arrivals, demand increased and throughput decreased. These trends caused a significant growth in delay at JFK between 2006 and 2007.     

基于时间依赖网络的城市交通紧急疏散线路研究

研究时间依赖网络的城市紧急疏散交通线路问题.在对考虑疏散过程中交叉口延误和通行能力、紧急疏散网络防堵塞改造已有研究的基础上,对紧急疏散时城市交通网络的时变特性进行分析,提出了动态路阻交通紧急疏散线路的思想.考虑到紧急疏散时不一定满足FIFO要求的特性,将研究对象转化为时间依赖非FIFO网络交通紧急疏散线路的确定问题,建...     

基于广义互相关法的水下被动测距时延估计技术

针对被动测距的性能严重依赖于时延的估计精度,提出设计一种基于广义互相关法的高精度的时延估计器,分析了时延估计器原理,得出了测距时延差ε的真值,仿真分析时采用时延差内插算法,对四点内插法时延估计精度进行了分析,满足了实际需求。     

互相关时延估计器的硬件设计与实现

基于互相关分析的时延估计方法是无源定位领域中一种重要的时间延迟估计算法。文章给出了基于互相关分析的时延估计方法的信号模型,研究了时间延迟估计的数字信号处理算法,在此基础上基于MSP430单片机、TMS320C54X系列DSP处理器及FPGA芯片实现了一种实时互相关时延估计器。水池试验结果表明了该时延估计器的有效性。     

On the use of “average delay” as a measure of train reliability

We investigate how passengers on long-distance trains value unexpected delays relative to scheduled travel time and travel cost. For scheduled services with high reliability and long headways, the value of delays is most commonly assumed to be proportional to the average delay. By exploring how the valuation of train delays depends on delay risk and delay length, using three different stated choice data sets, we find that the “average delay” approach does not hold: the disutility increases slower than linearly in the delay risk. This means that using the average delay as a performance indicator, a guide for operations planning or for investment appraisal will underestimate the value of small risks of long delays relative to large risks for short delays. It also means that estimated valuations of “average delay” will depend on the delay risk level: valuations will be higher the lower the risk levels in the study are.     

宏观交通模型中信号交叉口延误函数研究

针对不同进口道形式对交叉口分类,利用杭州市信号交叉口的实际观测延误数据,以统计出的进口道饱和度和延误值为基础,通过对饱和度和延误值关系的分析拟合,得出适合杭州市信号交叉口的延误函数,应用于杭州市宏观交通模型中,可提高模型的精确程度,并且在杭州市交通信息平台中得到了验证。     

基于过街方式的信控路段行人-机动车冲突分析与延误模型

不同过街方式产生不同类型的行人与机动车冲突与延误,并影响城市道路运行效率.在分析信控路段人行横道处行人过街与机动车运行行为及机非冲突场景的基础上,构建4类行为判定原则,阐述不同过街方式下行人和机动车冲突与延误的产生过程,建立基于过街方式的行人-机动车人均延误模型.以北京市某主干路为对象,仿真一次过街和二次过街条件下延误...     

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行人过街交通是混合交通流中重要的组成部分,解决行人与机动车之间的干扰与冲突问题是改善我国城市交通运行状况的重要内容. 本文对交叉口行人二次过街方案及其对行人的延误进行研究,意在解决交叉口行人与机动车之间的干扰与冲突问题. 通过总结行人过街行为及需求特性,结合行人二次过街设施的设置条件及评价指标,提出行人二次过街方案,得出行人二次过街延误模型. 并以北京北三环四通桥为例,进行实例研究. 通过仿真模拟,得出行人延误及交通流量等结果,其结果表明,行人二次过街方式能够提高行人过街安全性,减小行人过街等待时间,增加行人的通过效率,减少行人违章过街率,从而降低与机动车之间的冲突.     

时滞网络化群体编队控制系统收敛性分析

针对时滞网络化群体的编队控制问题,设计了PD控制器进行控制.群体为双积分系统,群体中的个体之间基于固定的拓扑结构图进行交互作用.个体的反馈控制作用仅仅基于个体与其邻居之间的相对信息,通信拓扑结构图可以为无向和有向图.设计了PD控制器来提高系统的收敛性.通过仿真确定了PD控制器的比例系数、微分系数对系统收敛性的影响,并给出了设计控制器参数的方法.仿真结果表明所设计的PD控制器提高了系统的收敛性.