A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip

A stated preference experiment was performed in Calgary in Canada to examine how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. A total of 635 complete observations were obtained. In each observation the respondent was presented with a set of possible departure time scenarios and asked to indicate the order of preference for these scenarios. Each scenario was described by specifying the automobile travel time, the expected arrival time relative to the movie start time, the parking cost, the probability of being at least ten minutes late for the movie and the length of time the movie had been running. This forced the respondent to trade off between conditions regarding these attributes. Age, gender and frequency of movie attendance were also recorded. The observations thus obtained were used to estimate the parameter values for a range of alternative utility functions in logit models representing this choice behaviour. The results indicate that all of the attributes included have significant effects on departure time choice in the situation being considered. They also indicate that travellers are prepared to arrive roughly two minutes early for each minute of travel time saved; that the money value of driving time for trips to recreational activities is about half that for trips to work; that one additional percent in the probability of arriving late is equivalent to roughly 0.20 Canadian dollars or 1.93 minutes drive time; and that there is a preference for a non-zero expected early arrival time regardless of the associated probability of arriving late. Some of these results are novel and others are consistent with findings for work trips in work done by others, which is seen to add credence to the approach being used here.     

基于非完备贝叶斯网络的车型识别方法

针对BP神经网络等车型识别算法不能很好地适应我国车型复杂状况，分析了贝叶斯网络（IDS-BN）算法中完备数据集的问题，提出了基于非完备数据集的贝叶斯网络车型识别方法和车型识别系统结构模块，基于该模块拟定了车型特征变量．构建了车型识别网络模型，并给出了模型参数学习、车型分类器等算法，包括MDL评分和贪婪搜索的结构学习、EM参数学习、随机模拟采样推理等。实验表明，该方法识别率较高，鲁棒性好，满足我国车型识别的实际要求。     

无线网络自适应带宽预留的准入控制技术研究

未来无线网络不仅向用户提供非实时的数据业务同时也提供实时的诸如话音、视频等多媒体业务，这就要求无线网络必需向用户提供不同要求的服务质量保证。提出一种基于自适应带宽预留的呼叫准入控制方案，该方案不仅考虑了切换呼叫优先于新呼叫，还考虑到实时业务对非实时业务的优先级，并将实时业务的掉线概率控制在预定的门限值以下，有效地保证各类业务的服务质量。     

列车轮对在线动态测量方法的评述

论述了列车轮对参数在线动态测量方法研究的重要意义,介绍了国内外在线动态测量的常见方案,并探讨我国在线动态测量系统的发展和应用。     

机车电器设备状态检测装置

介绍了一种机车电器设备状态检测装置，所使用的新型双微机系统，其前置机不配置人机对话设备．并从冗余、自校验、抗干扰等方面介绍了此装置的可靠性设计方法。     

高烈度地震区公路网抗灾能力评价方法研究

对高烈度地震区公路网的抗灾能力进行评价研究有着重要的意义。确立了从路段到路径,从路径到路网的公路网抗灾能力评价思路,提出了高烈度地震区公路网抗灾能力评价模型,并在此基础上,提出了高烈度地震区公路网生命线布局思路,研究成果为高烈度地震区的公路网规划建设、公路系统的抗震加固以及防灾对策提供理论根据。     

车辆荷载和车道荷载对桥梁结构可靠度的影响

公路桥梁结构的整体计算采用车道荷载,结构的局部计算采用车辆荷载,车辆荷载与车道荷载的作用不得叠加.将采用这2种荷载设计的结构进行可靠度对比,结果表明,按车辆荷载设计的结构满足正常使用功能的可靠度偏低,更容易发生损坏,这些损坏会影响到结构的正常使用.提出通过调整重型车辆通过桥梁时的交通行驶规则,增大结构按正常使用极限状态设计时车辆荷载的代表值,从而提高按车辆荷载设计的结构可靠度.     

基于高斯脉冲的超短波电台波形设计研究

针对GMSK基带信号的特点,在未引入编码条件下将Viterbi算法的思想运用于超短波高斯波形的最大似然序列估计中,相比逐符号检测达到最佳检测性能,获得了相应地功率增益,并仿真了不同BT值、定时偏差和抽样点数的波形性能。仿真结果可为超短波通信子网物理层波形设计提供理论基础,有较大的工程参考价值。     

反舰导弹对近程舰炮武器系统的突防概率仿真

针对反舰导弹突破近程舰炮武器系统防御阵地的战场需求,研究近程舰炮武器系统的开火时机和命中概率数学模型,分析其对反舰导弹产生有效可靠的毁伤时的射击持续时间,计算反舰导弹的突防概率.通过仿真,定量分析了超音速反舰导弹在中末段实施蛇行机动和跃升俯冲攻击时对近程舰炮武器系统的突防概率,为导弹突防和舰艇近程防御方面的作战使用提供参考.     

船舶自动化电站嵌入式监视仪表设计

文章讨论了船舶自动化电站的特点和实现船舶自动化电站的电力参数监测的必要性,为了解决参数监测中大量的数据计算和复杂的信息处理问题,采用DSP数字信号处理器和STM32高性能ARM处理器双CPU设计方案,设计了适合船舶自动化电站的嵌入式监视仪表。介绍了仪表的软硬件结构、参数监视方法与实现,并移植了uCGUI,设计了友好的人机界面。