小型机械开关抖动时间的测定

本文提出了一种通过测量小型机械开关抖动时间,对开关故障进行预测的一种方法。     

A hybrid scheme for real‐time prediction of bus trajectories

The uncertainty associated with public transport services can be partially counteracted by developing real‐time models to predict downstream service conditions. In this study, a hybrid approach for predicting bus trajectories by integrating multiple predictors is proposed. The prediction model combines schedule, instantaneous and historical data. The contribution of each predictor as well as values of respective parameters is estimated by minimizing the prediction error using a linear regression heuristic. The hybrid method was applied to five bus routes in Stockholm, Sweden, and Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that the hybrid method consistently outperforms the timetable and delay conservation prediction method for different route layouts, passenger demands and operation practices. Model validation confirms model transferability and real‐time applicability. Generating more accurate predictions can help service users adjust their travel plans and service providers to deploy proactive management and control strategies to mitigate the negative effects of service disturbances. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Urban traffic flow prediction: a spatio‐temporal variable selection‐based approach

Short‐term traffic flow prediction in urban area remains a difficult yet important problem in intelligent transportation systems. Current spatio‐temporal‐based urban traffic flow prediction techniques trend aims to discover the relationship between adjacent upstream and downstream road segments using specific models, while in this paper, we advocate to exploit the spatial and temporal information from all available road segments in a partial road network. However, the available traffic states can be high dimensional for high‐density road networks. Therefore, we propose a spatio‐temporal variable selection‐based support vector regression (VS‐SVR) model fed with the high‐dimensional traffic data collected from all available road segments. Our prediction model can be presented as a two‐stage framework. In the first stage, we employ the multivariate adaptive regression splines model to select a set of predictors most related to the target one from the high‐dimensional spatio‐temporal variables, and different weights are assigned to the selected predictors. In the second stage, the kernel learning method, support vector regression, is trained on the weighted variables. The experimental results on the real‐world traffic volume collected from a sub‐area of Shanghai, China, demonstrate that the proposed spatio‐temporal VS‐SVR model outperforms the state‐of‐the‐art. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

盾构法施工的环境保护技术

结合上海近年来在城市软土密集区盾构穿越施工的实践,对盾构穿越危险房屋、上方及下方穿越运营地铁的施工风险,以及变形控制标准与预测分析方法、土压力、注浆等关键施工工序及参数的控制细节进行了阐述和总结.明确提出:严格的地层损失率限制标准及强有力的监控手段,是化解盾构施工中各种风险的根本;针对特殊地质及环境条件下的盾构设备选型及相关工艺水平的改进与提高,是控制风险的决定性条件.     

浅谈锦屏电站引水隧洞TBM施工测量方法

锦屏二级电站1号引水隧洞采用TBM施工,配置有PPS激光导向系统,可实时监测TBM确切位置和掘进方向,为操作手提供TBM掘进方向与隧洞设计轴线之间的位置关系。根据PPS系统的定位原理,掌握PPs在TBM在掘进过程中产生偏差的原因,采取相应措施实施纠偏,可保证TBM掘进后隧洞实际轴线在设计允许的偏差范围之内,实现精确贯通。     

隧道超前地质预报中不良地质体的瞬变电磁响应特征

采用电磁场有限元方法,模拟计算隧道中瞬变电磁法预报不良地质体的视电阻率,研究视电阻率等值线图中断层、溶洞等不良地质体的瞬变电磁响应特征.研究结果表明:在不良地质体周围,视电阻率等值线相对密集,在不良地质体内部或者周围岩体,等值线相对稀疏;由此可根据等值线密集带和视电阻率相对大小,初步判断不良地质体的位置和大小.当掌子面前方存在富水溶洞时,溶洞部位视电阻率明显偏低且等值线密集;存在富水断层时,断层部位等值线密集且出现规则排列的塔形低阻区;存在干燥溶洞时,溶洞部位呈高阻区,且高阻区内部呈多个三角形组合分布;存在干燥断层时,断层部位出现近直线平行的视电阻率等值线密集高阻带.干燥溶洞和干燥断层的响应特征不易识别,需要结合地质资料进行更为细致的分析判断.部分响应特征已在实际工程中得到了应用和验证.     

铁路旅客列车票额智能预分研究

根据铁路的客流特点、季节特征和预售票规律,结合客流的历史数据和专家经验,采用时间序列分析方法建立旅客列车客流预测模型,预测旅客列车的OD客流.以预测的OD客流为基础,以旅客列车全程的客座率、收入以及整体效益最大化为目标,研究提出先长途后短途、先有座后无座、先按数量预分再按比例预分等旅客列车票额预分等主要原则,给出票额预分算法,并在此基础上构建铁路旅客列车票额智能预分系统.实际应用结果表明,该系统实现了铁路旅客列车票额的动态分配,提高了旅客列车沿途停靠车站组织客流的积极性,提高了旅客列车的客座率.     

填海造地工程中的软基沉降预测研究

基于某填海造地道路地基处理工程中的软基沉降监测实测数据,采用双曲线法、三点法和星野法对软土地基沉降进行了预测和比较研究,并对3种方法的预测结果和实测数据进行了对比分析.研究结果表明,双曲线法和星野法的预测沉降值与实测值比较吻合;三点法的预测沉降值与实测值偏差较大,且收敛速度较慢.所得结论对于类似工程中的沉降预测具有参考...     

非煤系构造连通型瓦斯隧道超前地质预报技术

穿越非煤系地层的隧道中的瓦斯的不可预见性很大,非煤系构造连通型瓦斯隧道是穿越非煤系地层的典型代表,现阶段对这类隧道还没有系统的超前地质预报技术,给施工安全造成了很大的威胁。为了准确预报非煤系构造连通型瓦斯隧道中的瓦斯运移途径,避免安全事故的发生,通过对现有超前地质预报技术包括地质法和物探法在非煤系构造连通型瓦斯隧道中适用性的分析,构建非煤系构造连通型瓦斯隧道的综合超前地质预报体系,并通过在肖家梁铁路隧道施工中成功应用,说明提出的超前地质预报技术是可行的。     

针梁横向滑模台车在长大隧洞弧形底拱衬砌中的应用

长大隧洞弧形底拱衬砌施工,存在气泡、水泡难以排出,外观质量差的通病。通过对锦屏二级水电站1#引水隧洞弧形底拱衬砌的研究,介绍了针梁横向滑模台车的设计思路、结构组成、关键施工技术等,经过现场实际应用,该台车不仅能够保证衬砌施工质量,而且可以大大提高施工效率,具有一定的先进性。