基于 EM D桘BPN 方法的高速铁路短期客流预测

高速铁路短期客流预测是铁路运输系统的重要组成部分。无论是对列车开行方案的制定,还是对如何采取正确的营销策略,都具有重大的现实意义。通过混合经验模态分解方法和神经网络方法相结合的EMD-BPN方法来预测高速铁路短期客流量。组合方法主要分为三步：首先,使用经验模态分解方法将客流时间序列分解;其次,将IM Fs作为BP神经网络的输入;最后,应用神经网络对客流量做出预测。数值实例表明,该方法对于高速铁路短期客流预测在精度和稳定性上都有良好的表现。     

钻探方法对粉细砂标贯试验值的影响

各种钻探方法对粉细砂层原始状态的影响不一,获得的标贯N值有一定差异。冲击钻对粉细砂层原始状态的影响较大,获得的标贯N值与实际相差较大,而回转钻对粉细砂层原始状态的影响较小,获得的标贯N值与实际比较接近。     

基于局部均值分解与局部离群因子动力电池故障诊断

动力电池故障诊断是保证电动汽车正常运行的关键。提出一种基于局部均值分解和局部离群因子的动力电池故障诊断方法,用于电池组故障识别与定位。通过局部均值分解对电压信号预处理,并根据相关系数高低重构电压信号。进一步提取重构信号的峭度因子作为故障特征输入到局部离群因子算法中,根据局部离群因子算法自适应阈值输出故障电池。采用实车数据验证了所提方法能有效、准确地检测出故障,具有较好的可靠性与鲁棒性。     

沥青混凝土路面预防性养护效益计算及参数

路面预养护效益分析是路面预养护技术的核心,是比选预养护方案和确定实施时机的前提。根据美国等路面预养护效益分析的经验,结合我国公路养护技术水平,对沥青混凝土路面预养护效益分析中的效益指标、效益计算基线和预养护时间范围展开了讨论;进而,提出我国现阶段沥青混凝土路面预养护分析中效益指标选用建议和它们计算下基线的参考值,以及预养护时间范围的控制指标和控制标准的建议值。     

Papahānaumokuākea: Integrating Culture in the Design and Management of one of the World's Largest Marine Protected Areas

Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument is one of the world's largest marine protected areas and was designated the first mixed conservation site in the United States due to its natural and cultural importance. It is also the world's first cultural seascape, being recognized for its continuing connections to indigenous people. As the westernmost place in the Hawaiian universe, many believe these islands and seas are the pathway that Native Hawaiians travel after death, returning to pō (night; realm of the gods). This intimate kinship has profound implications for contemporary management. Current management emphasizes integration of science, policy, cultural knowledge, traditions, and practices to create successful management strategies appropriate for both natural and cultural resources. This management is based on Native Hawaiian values and practices that incorporate observation and understanding of the natural world, indigenous principles and philosophies, cultural norms, community relationships, and unique epistemologies deeply imbedded in and formed by relationships of people with place. A cornerstone of this effort has been the direct involvement of cultural practitioners in policy, management, education, and research. This biocultural approach has led to more effective management of the monument and serves as a model for conservation around the world.     

The Dependency of People on the Great Barrier Reef,Australia

Understanding how people are dependent on Large Scale Marine Protected Areas (LSMPAs) is important for understanding how people might be sensitive to changes that affect these seascapes. We review how resource dependency is conceptualized and propose that it be broadened to include cultural values such as pride in resource status, scientific heritage, appreciation of aesthetics, biodiversity, and lifestyle opportunities. We provide an overview of how local residents (n = 3,181 face-to-face surveys), commercial fishers (n = 210, telephone surveys), and tourism operators (n = 119 telephone surveys) are potentially dependent on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), a region currently experiencing significant environmental, social, and economic change. We found that commercial fishers and tourism operators were dependent not only financially on the GBR, but also because of their age, years in the industry and region, lack of education, and the number of dependents. These stakeholders lacked flexibility to secure alternative employment. All stakeholder groups, regardless of economic imperatives, were dependent on the GBR because of their cultural connections. We propose that resource dependency also provides an umbrella concept to describe the cultural services provided by an ecosystem, which can be described through place-based dependence and place-identity.     

基于遗传算法的潜艇首端耐压平面舱壁构架分级优化研究

探讨了潜艇首端耐压平面舱壁的结构优化设计,针对舱壁结构复杂、设计变量多、取值离散规格化等难点,确定两级优化方案,即先后分别对舱壁内部主构架和肘板进行优化,采用遗传算法作为优化方法,并利用ANSYS程序对舱壁结构进行受力分析.对遗传算法进行了改进,并在此基础上用MATLAB语言编程实现遗传算法操作,同时编程与ANSYS结合起来,完成结构优化设计.经过迭代优化,得到一个优化方案,优化部分的结构重量较初始方案降低了18.39%.     

Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail demand: A hybrid approach combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and gray support vector machine with real-world applications in China

Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail (HSR) passenger flow provides daily ridership estimates that account for day-to-day demand variations in the near future (e.g., next week, next month). It is one of the most critical tasks in high-speed passenger rail planning, operational decision-making and dynamic operation adjustment. An accurate short-term HSR demand prediction provides a basis for effective rail revenue management. In this paper, a hybrid short-term demand forecasting approach is developed by combining the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and grey support vector machine (GSVM) models. There are three steps in this hybrid forecasting approach: (i) decompose short-term passenger flow data with noises into a number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a trend term; (ii) predict each IMF using GSVM calibrated by the particle swarm optimization (PSO); (iii) reconstruct the refined IMF components to produce the final predicted daily HSR passenger flow, where the PSO is also applied to achieve the optimal refactoring combination. This innovative hybrid approach is demonstrated with three typical origin–destination pairs along the Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR in China. Mean absolute percentage errors of the EEMD-GSVM predictions using testing sets are 6.7%, 5.1% and 6.5%, respectively, which are much lower than those of two existing forecasting approaches (support vector machine and autoregressive integrated moving average). Application results indicate that the proposed hybrid forecasting approach performs well in terms of prediction accuracy and is especially suitable for short-term HSR passenger flow forecasting.     

Economic Valuation of Coastal and Marine Resources: Bohol Marine Triangle,Philippines

This article provides results on the net benefits generated from the natural resources in the Bohol Marine Triangle (BMT) in the Philippines. The BMT spans over 112,000 ha and its coastal ecosystems are rich in biodiversity and provide economic opportunities to the coastal communities. With a 10% discount rate, the accumulated total net benefits for the BMT resources over a 10-year period is US$11.54 million. Tourism and the municipal fisheries are the most important direct use values of the coastal and marine resources of the BMT accounting for 44% and 39% of the total net benefits. Annual revenues attributed to ecosystems were as follows: coral reefs, US$1.26 million; beach/intertidal area, US$1.12 million; marine waters, US$646,501; mangrove, US$239,561; and seagrass, US$105,990. The large market values indicate the dependence of the local community on the BMT coastal and marine resources. In the same way, non-market values show the important life-support functions of coastal and marine ecosystems. The net benefits reflect the magnitude of potential losses due to improper management of coastal and marine resources in the BMT. This valuation highlights the importance of the coastal services to the BMT economy and draws attention to the benefits the local stakeholders derive from BMT coastal resources. Policy measures can now take into account these values to justify a sufficient investment in coastal management efforts to sustain the flow of coastal services in the interest of current and future generations.     

Public transit subsidies, output effect and total factor productivity

This paper extends previous works on total factor productivity decomposition when firms receive both operating and capital subsidies. It shows that previous works considered either the lump-sum or substitution effects of these subsidies but not together. Using constrained cost minimization as the framework it offers formal proofs to show that cost increases are inevitable if the total effects of the subsidies are considered, and that total factor productivity growth results from increasing amounts of subsidies under economies of scale and in the absence of technical change. Applications of the decomposition equations derived to a sample of transit systems finds near constant returns to scale and negative contributions of these subsidies to total factor productivity growth. Technical change reverses this decline and results in total factor productivity growth. Further, it finds that the lump-sum effects of the subsidies reduce total factor productivity more than does the substitution effect.