基于排队论的舰艇编队网络化协同防空效能分析

通过排队论的方法,研究了舰艇编队网络中心化防空作战体系,建立效能评估模型,为决策提供了理论依据。     

基于FCE对近岸岛屿进攻战斗炮兵部署优化研究

战斗部署的内容是决心方案的主体部分,优化战斗部署方案,可提高作战指挥决策的科学性。论文根据战斗部署的定义和战斗部署的要求,建立了近岸岛屿进攻战斗炮兵部署的评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定其权重,最后使用模糊综合评价法对战斗部署方案进行评估。     

灰关联分析在船用制冷系统故障诊断中的应用

灰关联分析方法是一种实用性强、可信度高的设备故障诊断方法,但其存在一定的应用限制。将D-S证据组合规则与灰关联方法相结合,能有效地处理故障征兆与故障类型关系的复杂性与不确定性,且诊断结果可信度较高。通过对某船用制冷系统故障实例计算,证明该方法简单、实用、诊断准确率高。     

A shockwave profile model for traffic flow on congested urban arterials

In this paper a new traffic flow model for congested arterial networks, named shockwave profile model (SPM), is presented. Taking advantage of the fact that traffic states within a congested link can be simplified as free-flow, saturated, and jammed conditions, SPM simulates traffic dynamics by analytically deriving the trajectories of four major shockwaves: queuing, discharge, departure, and compression waves. Unlike conventional macroscopic models, in which space is often discretized into small cells for numerical solutions, SPM treats each homogeneous road segment with constant capacity as a section; and the queuing dynamics within each section are described by tracing the shockwave fronts. SPM is particularly suitable for simulating traffic flow on congested signalized arterials especially with queue spillover problems, where the steady-state periodic pattern of queue build-up and dissipation process may break down. Depending on when and where spillover occurs along a signalized arterial, a large number of queuing patterns may be possible. Therefore it becomes difficult to apply the conventional approach directly to track shockwave fronts. To overcome this difficulty, a novel approach is proposed as part of the SPM, in which queue spillover is treated as either extending a red phase or creating new smaller cycles, so that the analytical solutions for tracing the shockwave fronts can be easily applied. Since only the essential features of arterial traffic flow, i.e., queue build-up and dissipation, are considered, SPM significantly reduces the computational load and improves the numerical efficiency. We further validated SPM using real-world traffic signal data collected from a major arterial in the Twin Cities. The results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the model. We expect that in the future this model can be applied in a number of real-time applications such as arterial performance prediction and signal optimization.     

基于TBM工法的隧洞工程进度定量分析——以引红济石隧洞工程TBM段为例

文章结合QTBM理论,对引红济石隧洞工程前期的开挖进度数据进行了分析统计,结果表明:该工区TBM在Ⅲ类、Ⅳ类围岩中掘进速率较为稳定,而在V类围岩中掘进速率较低;同时,获得了适合该工区的岩体品质参数以及TBM净掘进速率、平均使用率等相关参数;并据此对该工程TBM待开挖段的工程进度进行预测,预测表明剩余6600m的开挖尚需...     

Real time queue length estimation for signalized intersections using travel times from mobile sensors

We study how to estimate real time queue lengths at signalized intersections using intersection travel times collected from mobile traffic sensors. The estimation is based on the observation that critical pattern changes of intersection travel times or delays, such as the discontinuities (i.e., sudden and dramatic increases in travel times) and non-smoothness (i.e., changes of slopes of travel times), indicate signal timing or queue length changes. By detecting these critical points in intersection travel times or delays, the real time queue length can be re-constructed. We first introduce the concept of Queue Rear No-delay Arrival Time which is related to the non-smoothness of queuing delay patterns and queue length changes. We then show how measured intersection travel times from mobile sensors can be processed to generate sample vehicle queuing delays. Under the uniform arrival assumption, the queuing delays reduce linearly within a cycle. The delay pattern can be estimated by a linear fitting method using sample queuing delays. Queue Rear No-delay Arrival Time can then be obtained from the delay pattern, and be used to estimate the maximum and minimum queue lengths of a cycle, based on which the real-time queue length curve can also be constructed. The model and algorithm are tested in a field experiment and in simulation.     

基于多分辨率分析的区间类型2模糊系统

为了更有效地表达和处理系统的不确定性,提出了基于多分辨率分析的区间类型2(简称多分辨率区间类型2)模糊系统,构造了多分辨率区间类型2隶属度函数,并给出了基于尺度函数分解的结构和参数学习算法.多分辨率区间类型2模糊系统的前件是多分辨率隶属度函数,后件是输入的线性函数,因此系统可以自适应地划分输入论域空间,优化系统结构.将多分辨率区间类型2模糊系统应用于带有噪声的时间序列预测,预测结果的复杂度较小,均方根误差为0.105 2.     

隧道路面类型选择及调查研究

采用理论分析和实际调查相结合的方法分析了隧道内温度、湿度、噪声、基础强度、交通条件等对隧道路面类型选择影响.为了选择舒适、安全、耐久的隧道路面类型,基于灰靶分析理论从路面整体强度、耐久性、平整度、抗滑性能、耐磨性能及修复难易程度六个方面对沥青和水泥两种路面进行综合评价.结果表明沥青路面在隧道中具有更好的适用性.经对近百座隧道路面实地调查,验证了理论分析的正确性.随着施工、阻燃等技术进步,沥青路面将逐渐取代水泥路面在隧道内得到广泛应用.     

基于应变梯度的微切削第一变形区几何分析模型的研究

应用应变梯度塑性理论构建了微切削第一变形区的力学模型,在此力学模型的基础上提出了第一变形区几何尺寸的分析预测方法和影响因素,得出当材料的内禀长度l越小,即材料相对均匀时,第一变形区厚度赿小.当切削厚度增大时,第一变形区的长度增大.设计了正交切削实验来验证模型的有效性,实验结果表明随着进给量的增大,第一变形区厚度减小而第一变形区的长度反而增大.     

城市公交车到站规律及站台服务水平研究

城市公共交通是城市可持续发展的必由之路,对城市交通具有重大意义.本文从公交车的运行特点入手,用数学方法描述公交车从发车到到站的运行过程,建立公交车到站模型,并利用简化模型分析公交站台车辆到站规律,计算车辆到站频次.最后,利用排队理论建立公交站台服务水平的计算模型.运用排队论模型对北京市某公交站台进行评价,证明对站点设置位置和停靠模式以及站台的线路数和线路发车频率的合理设置,可以有效地控制站台内公交车的排队情况,提高公交站台的运行效率,缓解交通拥堵.