Predicting travel time reliability using mobile phone GPS data

Estimates of road speeds have become commonplace and central to route planning, but few systems in production provide information about the reliability of the prediction. Probabilistic forecasts of travel time capture reliability and can be used for risk-averse routing, for reporting travel time reliability to a user, or as a component of fleet vehicle decision-support systems. Many of these uses (such as those for mapping services like Bing or Google Maps) require predictions for routes in the road network, at arbitrary times; the highest-volume source of data for this purpose is GPS data from mobile phones. We introduce a method (TRIP) to predict the probability distribution of travel time on an arbitrary route in a road network at an arbitrary time, using GPS data from mobile phones or other probe vehicles. TRIP captures weekly cycles in congestion levels, gives informed predictions for parts of the road network with little data, and is computationally efficient, even for very large road networks and datasets. We apply TRIP to predict travel time on the road network of the Seattle metropolitan region, based on large volumes of GPS data from Windows phones. TRIP provides improved interval predictions (forecast ranges for travel time) relative to Microsoft’s engine for travel time prediction as used in Bing Maps. It also provides deterministic predictions that are as accurate as Bing Maps predictions, despite using fewer explanatory variables, and differing from the observed travel times by only 10.1% on average over 35,190 test trips. To our knowledge TRIP is the first method to provide accurate predictions of travel time reliability for complete, large-scale road networks.     

客车行车安全监测系统中走行部节点功能校验系统的实现

为了对客车行车安全监测系统中车辆走行部节点功能进行校验 ,将以往典型试验的采样数据无失真的回放出来 ,代替车辆走行部节点的采样信号源 (传感器拾取的信号 ) ,车辆走行部节点装置对输出的波形进行采样、预处理和数据分析 ,方便实用     

受电摩擦磨损试验中磨损量与摩擦因数的实时测量

针对自行研制的高速大电流摩擦磨损试验机,介绍了试验中摩擦副的磨损量和摩擦因数的实时在线测量方法以及数据采集与处理系统     

机车车辆动力学试验线况识别的方法

在机车车辆动力学性能试验中 ,必须考察评价被试车在各种不同的速度、线况下的动力学性能 ,为此在动力学试验中必须采集线路状况。对目前采用的各种线况采集方法进行了分析比较 ,指出了它们的优缺点 ,并对它们的使用范围提出了建议     

Wave climate evolution in the Bay of Biscay over two decades

As a background, a review of long term evolution of wave climate in the North Atlantic is discussed. Most studies show that interannual evolutions in wave heights may be related to climatic factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index for example.Data of a waverider, consisting of a time series of 20 years in the Bay of Biscay (off Biscarosse, France), are analysed. Based on these data obtained from 1980, wave heights tend to decrease over the period. Also, interannual evolutions exist, particularly in the wave period. The fact that the annual wave periods at Biscarosse are found to vary more significantly than the annual wave heights led us to assume that it is an indirect effect of the evolution in the location of generating storms relative to the buoy. The relationships between wave parameters and climatic factors such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and the Garonne discharge have been derived: they show that the NAO index is negatively correlated with the river discharge and positively correlated with the wave period. This result is in agreement with the general climate scheme associated with NAO cycle proposed by Kushnir et al. [Kushnir, Y., Cardone, V.J., Cane, M., 1995. Link between Atlantic climate variability of surface wave height and sea level pressure. Proc. Fourth Int. Workshop on Wave Incasting and forecasting, Banff, AB, Canada, 59–64.]: NAO+ shifts storm tracks northward and dry weather are encountered in the southern part of Europe (conversely NAO− brings storm tracks and rainfall closer). Concerning wave heights, the lack of dependence on NAO index may be associated with compensation effects between wind intensity and storm tracks: wave energy is partly dissipated while reaching the Bay of Biscay in case of severe but distant storms (NAO+), which is not the case for storms generated nearer to the buoy and associated with moderate westerly winds (NOA−). However, the reason of the decrease in wave heights is not clear.     

改进的灰色模型在港口吞吐量预测中的应用

用提高原始数据列光滑度的方法来提高灰色预测模型(GM模型)的精度。利用函数a-xm(a>1,m>1)对原始离散数据列｛x(0)(k)｝进行变换,原始数据列变成a-[x(0)(k)]m ,很大程度上提高了预测精度。将这种方法应用于港口吞吐量的预测,结果比传统灰色预测方法精度高很多,对正确做出港口发展战略、统筹安排、正确决策以及减少损失有重大意义。     

智能型列车总线ARCNET通信网卡的研究

分析了ＡＲＣＮＥＴ网络协议及其特点，介绍了列车总线智能型ＡＲＣＮＥＴ通信网卡的硬件设计，给出了网卡的通信软件流程图。试验结果表明：该网卡能够减少主机的开销，并具有实时性好、可靠性高等优点。     

新型多模式高速无线多媒体数传技术的研究

为解决铁路高速无线数传的安全与可靠性,研制和试用对数据、话音、图像多业务信息适配、汇接与同传的软硬平台。采用非线性码MM高密度密钥,实现"加密与纠错兼容一体化",达到破译复杂度为O(2104),纠错能力为检4纠3,正确解密概率达0 999999988,数据信息传输速率高达3Mbps～22Mbps时传输误码率优于10-10,重传率为0。为实现多模式无线数传,研制出多速率、多路、多媒体复用器,具有低速异步及高、低速同步与多速率数传功能,同步时间小于1s,开机同步可靠率达99%,设有动态图像、数据、话音、文本等四路通道,具有自适应多模式信息组合数据通道,使数字系统可实现同一平台多作业信息复用传输。数传网络接口可支持OS/2与Windows两种操作系统相互平滑转换,开发出多点互联控制软件,实现局部网随机接入。设计出"线状"、"链状"、"面状"、"点 面混合"及"树状"五种信息网型,满足铁路运输信息化及应用多媒体数据2km～120km的传输需求。     

内河智能交通系统研究

内河航运在运输成本、环保、可持续发展等方面优势突出,而内河航运管理相对滞后。提出内河智能交通系统的概念,阐明内河智能交通系统的3个关键技术:船舶定位、无线数据通信、电子河图显示与信息系统,并对我国发展内河智能交通系统提出建议。