基于模糊模式识别的城市道路安全状况综合评价

针对影响城市道路安全状况的因素众多且具有模糊性的特点,采用模糊模式识别与模糊综合评价相结合的评价模型来评价城市道路安全状况.建立了城市道路安全状况综合评价指标体系,应用层次分析法确定了指标权重,应用集值统计法对指标特征值进行了量化.通过对大连市黄河路的评价实例证明,该模型实用性较强,可用于完善道路安全设计及辅助道路安全管理.     

机动车超速行驶防范对策分析

机动丰超速行驶是引起交通事故的主要原因,是严重的道路交通违法行为之一。机动丰超速是由于驾驶人没有及时纠正驾驶过程中的误判、误动的结果。引起超速的原因包括驾驶人、机动车、交通安全设施和其他因素四个方面,应从教育培训、法律、交通安全设施、交通科技四个方面采取措施预防超速。     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

直升机舰上起降安全的影响因素研究

舰载直升机的起降安全涉及到舰机两方面,且影响因素较多。本文首先对舰载直升机起降安全因素进行了系统分析,梳理了其关键影响因素舰船空气流场中各特性参数对直升机操作性能的影响。然后介绍了用于舰船空气流场测量的三种典型方法,对舰船空气流场的深入研究有重要指导意义,并可为机舰动态配合研究提供参考。     

葛洲坝1号船闸增设防撞安全设施的探讨

葛洲坝1号船闸由于与三峡船闸匹配运行,船舶实行导航墙待闸,下行船舶在导航墙停靠时距离人字门较近,而且下行船舶首船进闸后停靠位置与下闸首人字门距离较近,都具有碰撞人字门的风险。针对葛洲坝1号船闸人字门存在被碰撞的风险,结合上、下闸首的现场情况分别就上、下闸首人字门增设防撞设施方案的可能性进行分析,提出提升式、侧开式和下沉式等方案,并讨论各方案实现的可能性、优势及不足,为船闸人字门防撞安全设施的方案设计及应用提供参考。     

In search of surrogate safety indicators for vulnerable road users: a review of surrogate safety indicators

Surrogate indicators are meant to be alternatives or complements of safety analyses based on accident records. These indicators are used to study critical traffic events that occur more frequently, making such incidents easier to analyse. This article provides an overview of existing surrogate indicators and specifically focuses on their merit for the analyses of vulnerable road users and the extent to which they have been validated by previous research. Each indicator is evaluated based on its ability to consider the collision risk, which can be further divided into the initial conditions of an event, the magnitude of any evasive action and the injury risk in any traffic event. The results show that various indicators and their combinations can reflect different aspects of any traffic event. However, no existing indicator seems to capture all aspects. Various studies have also focused on the validity of different indicators. However, due to the use of diverse approaches to validation, the large difference in how many locations were investigated and variations in the duration of observation at each location, it is difficult to compare and discuss the validity of the different surrogate safety indicators. Since no current indicator can properly reflect all the important aspects underlined in this article, the authors suggest that the choice of a suitable indicator in future surrogate safety studies should be made with considerations of the context-dependent suitability of the respective indicator.     

水力式升船机塔楼结构分析

塔楼结构是升船机的主体建筑物,针对景洪水电站水力式升船机塔楼的受力特点,采用数值计算方法及模型试验方法对水力式升船机塔楼结构进行深入研究。结果表明:数值计算结果和模型试验结果基本一致。通过施工完建后的相关监测结果对该设计进行论证,可为同类水力式升船机的塔楼设计提供借鉴。     

深圳港铜鼓航道抓斗船施工通航安全

深圳港铜鼓航道是大型货轮进出深圳各大港口的必经要道。针对抓斗船施工对通航船舶存在安全影响的问题,通过计算通航船舶的安全距离,确定抓斗船施工方案,在保证船舶通航安全的前提下,提高抓斗船施工效率,通过精确定位及合理避让方案确保边施工边有序通航。     

航行安全入级符号在超大型矿砂船上的应用

航行安全入级符号越来越多地受到船东青睐,挪威船级社的NAUT系列入级符号在航行安全设计中得到了广泛应用。针对NAUT-OC和NAUT-NAV两种入级符号,结合40万吨和32.5万吨两型超大型矿砂船的实船应用情况,对两种入级符号在桥楼视野、工作站配置、电源供应等方面进行了对比分析,以期望今后对该类航行安全入级符号的实船应用有所帮助。     

Vehicle mass as a determinant of fuel consumption and secondary safety performance

One interaction between environmental and safety goals in transport is found within the vehicle fleet where fuel economy and secondary safety performance of individual vehicles impose conflicting requirements on vehicle mass from an individual’s perspective. Fleet characteristics influence the relationship between the environmental and safety outcomes of the fleet; the topic of this paper. Cross-sectional analysis of mass within the British fleet is used to estimate the partial effects of mass on the fuel consumption and secondary safety performance of vehicles. The results confirmed that fuel consumption increases as mass increases and is different for different combinations of fuel and transmission types. Additionally, increasing vehicle mass generally decreases the risk of injury to the driver of a given vehicle in the event of a crash. However, this relationship depends on the characteristics of the vehicle fleet, and in particular, is affected by changes in mass distribution within the fleet. We confirm that there is generally a trade-off in vehicle design between fuel economy and secondary safety performance imposed by mass. Cross-comparison of makes and models by model-specific effects reveal cases where this trade-off exists in other aspects of design. Although it is shown that mass imposes a trade-off in vehicle design between safety and fuel use, this does not necessarily mean that it imposes a trade-off between safety and environmental goals in the vehicle fleet as a whole because the secondary safety performance of a vehicle depends on both its own mass and the mass of the other vehicles with which it collides.