Capacity drops at merges: An endogenous model

The Newell-Daganzo merge model is not only very simple but also accurately reproduces experimental findings. However, the capacity downstream of the merge is an exogenous variable in the model. This is a serious limitation for merges that behave as active bottlenecks because their downstream capacity is a direct consequence of the merging behavior. This paper proposes an analytical model that extends the Newell-Daganzo model by incorporating, endogenously, the capacity drop related to the merging process. Two cases are investigated depending on the traffic states on the on-ramp. The model properties are analyzed and a sensitivity analysis is performed to quantify the relative contribution of the each parameter in the capacity drop. Finally, the extended Newell-Daganzo model is validated with experimental data coming from an active merge bottleneck on the M6 freeway in UK.     

运用灰色理论预测隧道变形的探讨

隧道变形监测对于隧道的安全有着重要的作用.运用灰色理论GM模型对其变形数据进行预测分析,发现灰色理论对隧道的变形有一定的预测效果,同时了解到不同样本数据其预测精度存在差异.为此,提出使用二次拟合参数法对其进行改进,得出二次拟合参数法对低精度的预测模型有一定的改进效果,而对于较高精度的预测模型效果并不显著.     

视角受限传感器网络强栅栏覆盖判定算法

栅栏覆盖研究如何分配网络时空资源来确保移动目标穿越监控区域时被监测．本文通过视角受限节点传感方向的调整,设计一种分布式算法以判定网络能否提供强栅栏覆盖．算法主要思想是利用节点及邻居节点的物理位置关系构建强／弱栅栏对．另外,本文设计贪心策略优先选择邻居节点数多的候选节点构建强栅栏路径．仿真实验证明：本算法可以较小代价判定并改善网络强栅栏覆盖性能．     

混合动力汽车动力系统控制策略试验分析

介绍了一种混合动力客车动力系统的结构组成,阐述了该混合动力系统的各种工作模式、整车控制系统组成及控制策略,并通过其相关试验测试了数据信息。最后以该车能量消耗量试验过程数据为基础,分析了整车能耗状况、发动机工作区域及机械自动变速器与电机协调换挡控制策略。     

模拟退火算法在供应链生产调度中的应用

研究一个简单供应链中的生产调度问题,目的是找到一个合理生产排序使得单位时间的成本最小,建立该问题的单目标非线性规划模型。运用模拟退火算法,结合邻域搜索进行求解,最后举例验证算法的有效性。     

灰色模型在中长期用水量预测中的应用

为实现供水管网经济、可靠、科学的规划改扩建,给出一种基于记录时间较短、历史数据较少的用水量序列的GM(1,1)预测方法。该预测方法把原始用水量序列累加处理生成新序列后,用指数关系式拟合,通过构造参数矩阵,确定辩识参数,建立灰色模型的微分方程。通过对灰色预测方法建模机理的研究建立城市用水量预测GM(1,1)模型,并以东北某大型城市用水量为原始数据进行实际预测,模型精度检验的结果表明该模型的预测等级为高精度预测。该预测方法应用于S市的中长期用水量预测,为S市供水规划改扩建提供有效依据。     

城市公交站点自行车对公交车的干扰行为研究

以北京市两个不同类型的典型公交站点为例,研究了公交站点处自行车对公交车的干扰行为,并建立了不同因素影响下自行车对公交车的干扰行为模型,进而对其进行验证.最后,提出了几点减少公交站点处自行车对公交车干扰的建议.     

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公路运输效率高低是衡量公路运输发展水平的重要依据.随着可持续发展战略的实施,经济增长方式由粗放型向集约型转变,必然要求公路运输提高生产效率,优化发展模式.本文从投入和产出两个层面建立公路运输效率评价指标体系,基于DEA方法构建了综合评价模型,定量测算公路运输综合效率、技术效率和规模效率,并采用31省份的投入产出截面数据进行实证分析.结果显示：半数省份DEA有效,公路运输综合效率存在较明显的地域差异;2/3的省份达到规模效益递减或不变,增加要素投入对提高综合效率不具积极性;资源投入过度、要素使用效率低下是导致运输效率不高的主要因素.最后针对公路运输发展中存在的主要问题提出相应的发展模式.     

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发车间隔的确定是建立行车计划的基础,合理安排公交运营方案可以在优化公交企业运营成本的同时,有效满足乘客需求. 本文提出了在保证公交运营服务水平和所需运营车辆最少的前提下, 确定公交发车间隔的模型. 在现有的模型基础上考虑了道路交通拥堵对公交运行的影响. 引入拥堵系数,建立了基于载客里程的公交发车频率模型. 实例分析表明模型使得发车间隔的计算更简单直观. 拥堵因子的引入对发车间隔产生了较大的影响,且能有效地优化公交发车间隔. 使公交企业更好地平衡了乘客满意度与公交车运行成本.     

Modeling Correlation of Family Holiday Activities Based on Structural Equation Model

Previous researches in activities-decision have more in-depth study in context of individuals, while less work has been done within household activity decisions. The structural equation model is applied to analyze the relationship of three household activity categories on holiday using data from 2009 Jinan travel survey. Six attributes were first chosen as exogenous variables for the structural equation model. Meanwhile, six activity characteristic indexes were selected as endogenous variables including activity duration time and activity times in three kinds of activity, hereby Subsistence activity, maintenance activity and discretionary activity. respectively. Then, the paper attempted to discuss the correlation of all types of activities behavior through analyzing not only the influence of household economics and family members factors on activity but the correlation of holiday activities. The research shows that complex relationships among composition of the family, economic status, and activities-decision can be captured by the structural equation model structure. Specifically, the results show that flexibility of three categories activities will affect the activities of decision-making.