Logistic performance evaluation of provinces in Turkey: A GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis

Logistics performance evaluation of provinces is considered in this study. To do so, a three-step solution approach is developed: (i) determination of 16 geographic and economic indicators, (ii) using geographic information system to assign a logistics score and (iii) prioritizing the indicators and ranking the provinces using multi-criteria decision analysis tools. Proposed methodology is applied to 81 provinces in Turkey as a case study. Results show that the provinces of Istanbul, Izmir, and Hatay are the pioneers. The proposed methodology provides the ability to analyze the impacts of indicators on logistics performance and create a logistics performance map of countries.     

Do people drive safer when accidents are more expensive: Testing for moral hazard in experience rating schemes

Using individual policies and claims data from the Croatian mandatory motor insurance we test the theoretical proposition that under moral hazard, experience rated pricing scheme should generate the negative state dependence in claims, i.e. that drivers should drive more safely after they had an accident. The empirical challenge in these tests is to disentangle the state dependence from unobserved heterogeneity. We propose a simple approach based on the explicit reliance on the cost of future accidents function which is used to filter out the pure incentives effect, whereas the bonus-malus scale is used to control for pure heterogeneity. Our results confirm the existence of negative dependence in claims indicating the presence of significant moral hazard effect. Increasing a 3-year cost of having an accident by approximately US$20 decreases the probability of having an accident by 6.5%.     

Stability and bifurcation in network traffic flow: A Poincaré map approach

Previous studies have shown that, in a diverge-merge network with two intermediate links (the DM network), the kinematic wave model always admits stationary solutions under constant boundary conditions, but periodic oscillations can develop from empty initial conditions. Such contradictory observations suggest that the stationary states be unstable. In this study we develop a systematic approach to investigate the stability property of stationary states in this and other networks within the framework of network kinematic wave theories. Based on the observation that kinematic waves propagate in a circular path when only one of the two intermediate links is congested, we derive a one-dimensional, discrete Poincaré map in the out-flux at a Poincaré section. We then prove that the fixed points of the Poincaré map correspond to stationary flow-rates on the two links. With Lyapunov’s first method, we demonstrate that the Poincaré map can be finite-time stable, asymptotically stable, or unstable. When unstable, the map is found to have periodical points of period two, but no chaotic solutions. We further analyze the bifurcation in the stability of the Poincaré map caused by varying route choice proportions. We apply the Poincaré map approach to analyzing traffic patterns in more general (DM)ⁿ and beltway networks, which are sufficient and necessary structures for network-induced unstable traffic and gridlock, respectively. This study demonstrates that the Poincaré map approach can be efficiently applied to analyze traffic dynamics in any road networks with circular information propagation and provides new insights into unstable traffic dynamics caused by interactions among network bottlenecks.     

Japanese perspective of driver information systems

A perspective view of of Japanese R&D activities of Driver Information Systems is given from the standpoint of developing joint projects by public and private sectors. First, a brief history of the R&D activities is illustrated from above mentioned standpoint. Then, two major projects, AMTICS and RACS, and the social backgrounds of these projects are explained. In order to give a clear idea of both projects some technical details are treated.Based on the history and the present status of the developments, the basic design conceptions of Japanese Driver Information Systems are explained and several factors or reasons which have influenced to the design conception are discussed. Then, the promoting systems of the R&D activities are generally explained and present status of the projects and future problems in developing more advanced systems are also handled. A brief discussion on the establishment of international standard is also mentioned as a final comment.     

基于HLA的智能交通信息试验平台研究

从智能交通信息平台的概念出发,研究利用已有的智能交通系统资源建立智能交通信息试验平台。首先对比分析了已有的平台体系结构开发方法,即面向过程的开发方法和面向对象的开发方法,两者都已不能适应复杂大系统的开发需求。通过引入计算机建模与仿真领域的HLA（高层体系结构）技术,创造性地提出了基于HLA的体系结构开发方法,结合信息试验平台需求分析,设计了智能交通信息试验平台的逻辑结构。平台分4层来组织,分别是基础数据层、数据库层、应用服务层和用户主体层,在若干接口程序的衔接下,各类联邦成员协同作用以实现信息平台的功能。结合现有的技术设备条件,实现了信息平台的物理连接。平台搭建后运营正常,已接入信息平台的ITS系统包括车载导航系统和城市商用车辆调度系统,并为其他子系统的接入预留了接口。     

小样本条件下混凝土强度代表值的确定

针对小样本混凝土强度代表值确定时不能利用数理统计模型的问题,引入了信息扩散原理,提出了小样本条件下混凝土强度代表值确定的实用计算模型。2个混凝土强度检测案例的计算结果表明,利用《公路工程质量检验评定标准》(JTJ071-98)进行灌注桩芯样混凝土强度代表值确定,得到的代表值保证率在95%左右波动,具有不确定性;利用《超声回弹综合法检测混凝土强度技术规程》(CECS 02:88)进行单一构件混凝土强度推定,推定值的保证率小于95%,对结构的可靠性鉴定而言是偏于不安全的,应引起试验检测人员的充分重视。     

基于GIS的城市道路掘路交通影响分析系统研究

构建了基于GIS的城市道路掘路交通影响分析系统的体系，提出了局域路网，D矩阵反推模型、局域路网掘路交通分配模型和局域路网掘路交通状况评价方法，为掘路工程实施的可行性和交通组织方案的优选提供了依据。     

信息管理与信息化

本文主要介绍武汉市水务局在信息设施建设方面取得的成果 ,并阐明笔者对水务防汛信息管理的见解     

CBTC系统基于站台局域无线覆盖的后备控制等级功能扩展

讨论目前CBTC系统中不同等级后备模式的工作原理及存在的功能缺陷,提出了一种在现有系统上增加站台区域车-地双向无线通信覆盖以实现站区紧急停车防护和站台屏蔽门控制的技术解决方案。     

导弹装备基于状态的维修理论研究

随着导弹装备的复杂化,传统的维修方式日益暴露弊端.基于状态的维修（CBM）在实践应用中日益显示其优越性和巨大的经济效益.论文分析了CBM的特点,阐述了CBM的实施条件,进一步分析了基于CBM的导弹装备维修流程.