市政道路工程造价的有效控制

文章从当前市政道路工程造价文件的编制依据、造价从业人员的素质以及项目建设各阶段呈现的投资控制问题出发,提出实现市政道路工程造价有效控制的措施,为市政道路工程造价管理提供参考。     

Estimation of origin-destination matrices from link counts and sporadic routing data

Estimation of origin-destination (OD) matrices from link count data is a challenging problem because of the highly indeterminate relationship between the observations and the latent route flows. Conversely, estimation is straightforward if we observe the path taken by each vehicle. We consider an intermediate problem of increasing practical importance, in which link count data is supplemented by routing information for a fraction of vehicles on the network. We develop a statistical model for these combined data sources and derive some tractable normal approximations thereof. We examine likelihood-based inference for these normal models under the assumption that the probability of vehicle tracking is known. We show that the likelihood theory can be non-standard because of boundary effects, and provide conditions under which such irregular behaviour will be observed in practice. For regular cases we outline connections with existing generalised least squares methods. We then consider estimation of OD matrices under estimated and/or misspecified models for the probability of vehicle tracking. Theoretical developments are complemented by simulation experiments and an illustrative example using a section of road network from the English city of Leicester.     

Understanding members' carsharing (activity) persistency by using econometric model

Carsharing is an innovative travel alternative that has recently experienced considerable growth and become part of sustainable transportation initiatives. Although carsharing is becoming increasingly a popular alternative transportation mode in North America, it is still an under‐researched area. Current research is aimed at better understanding of the behavior of carsharing users. For every member, a two‐stage approach microsimulates the probability of being active in any month using a binary probit model and given that a particular member is active during a month, the probability of that member using the service multiple times using a random utility‐based model. The model is estimated using empirical data from one of the largest carsharing companies in North America. The model estimates reveal that the activity persistency of members is positively linked to previous behaviors for up to 4 months, and that the influence of previous months weakens over time. It also shows that some attributes of the traveler (gender, age, and language spoken at home) impact his or her behaviors. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are often not taken into account in cost-benefit analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules to predict variability, based on travel time data from Dutch highways. Two different concepts of travel time variability are used, which differ in their assumptions on information availability to drivers. The first measure is based on the assumption that, for a given road link and given time of day, the expected travel time is constant across all working days (rough information: RI). In the second case, expected travel times are assumed to reflect day-specific factors such as weather conditions or weekdays (fine information: FI). For both definitions of variability, we find that the mean travel time is a good predictor. On average, longer delays are associated with higher variability. However, the derivative of variability with respect to delays is decreasing in delays. It can be shown that this result relates to differences in the relative shares of observed traffic ‘regimes’ (free-flow, congested, hyper-congested) in the mean delay. For most CBAs, no information on the relative shares of the traffic regimes is available. A non-linear model based on mean travel times can then be used as an approximation.     

广西道路货物运输安全管理对策研究

文章介绍了当前广西道路货物运输行业的基本情况,阐述了广西道路货物运输安全生产存在的主要问题,并从行政管理和企业管理的角度,提出了切合广西道路货物运输行业实际的安全管理措施。     

里海远洋渔船无人机舱系统研究

针对我国远洋渔船装备落后、操纵性差、机舱环境恶劣、电站管理水平低、劳动强度大以及渔船机舱自动化水平低等问题,介绍里海远洋渔船无人机舱系统的设计与组成。通过采用主机遥控系统、电站功率管理系统、机舱监测报警系统以及网络通信等技术,将自动化、电气化、信息化和智能化控制技术等船舶前沿科技应用于实船,构建一个满足法国船级社(BV)机舱自动化最高等级AUT-UMS要求的无人机舱系统,以提高远洋渔船的操控性、安全性和可靠性,提升供电系统自动化管理水平,改善作业人员工作环境。对该自动化系统的效果和特点进行分析,结果可为我国远洋渔船自动化系统的研究提供策略和思路。     

Design and Practice of Cloud Computing Platform for TBM Operation Information北大核心CSCD

The problems of TBM construction data loss, information barriers and absence of data mining have con⁃ strained the advancement of basic technologies in TBM field. Aimed at building a cloud computation platform for TBM operation information, a new concept of 3B, i. e. Born by digit, Born in format and Born to the cloud, was pre⁃ sented, the issues of information acquisition, transmission and storage during TBM operation were solved, and massive heterogeneous information intelligent transmission system and big data warehouse of TBM group were established. A structure model of cloud computation platform was designed by taking Hadoop system as ecosphere, and a cloud computation platform was built to deploy related algorithm, realizing on-line monitoring and data sharing, further⁃ more the data law mining of interaction of rock mass versus TBM machine was conducted based on big data tech⁃ nique, exploring the development direction of the information platform. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Papahānaumokuākea: Integrating Culture in the Design and Management of one of the World's Largest Marine Protected Areas

Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument is one of the world's largest marine protected areas and was designated the first mixed conservation site in the United States due to its natural and cultural importance. It is also the world's first cultural seascape, being recognized for its continuing connections to indigenous people. As the westernmost place in the Hawaiian universe, many believe these islands and seas are the pathway that Native Hawaiians travel after death, returning to pō (night; realm of the gods). This intimate kinship has profound implications for contemporary management. Current management emphasizes integration of science, policy, cultural knowledge, traditions, and practices to create successful management strategies appropriate for both natural and cultural resources. This management is based on Native Hawaiian values and practices that incorporate observation and understanding of the natural world, indigenous principles and philosophies, cultural norms, community relationships, and unique epistemologies deeply imbedded in and formed by relationships of people with place. A cornerstone of this effort has been the direct involvement of cultural practitioners in policy, management, education, and research. This biocultural approach has led to more effective management of the monument and serves as a model for conservation around the world.     

Situation analysis forecasting: the case of European maritime clusters

Within the literature concerned with aspects of competitiveness, innovation and strategic management of industrial clusters, the body regarding forecasting of strategic management is still nascent. This work aspires to render a contribution within the domain of strategic management forecasting, through the indicative case of European maritime clusters. For this end, a two-tier model is formulated. A quantitative strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) methodology that derives from the fusion of a quondam situation analysis and crosstabs’ theory is generated. This leads to the utilization of the crosstab’s conditional probabilities as transition probabilities; the latter are called to compile the transition matrix of a Markov chain. Through this methodology, and the successive Markov chain’s transition matrices, strategic forecasts are extracted for a devised European maritime cluster case. This work relinquishes a novel application with respect to strategic management forecasting, that provides a dichotomy of practical interpretations and scenarios for quantitative situation analysis. Thus, it may enable effective real-time decision-making for strategic management and/or policy drafting. The situation analysis forecasting model may find applicability in a plethora of practical and theoretical cases, wherein forecasting may be desirable. It may as well pertain to an intrinsic methodology for situation analysis forecasting of maritime clusters.     

港口干散货物流供应链信息协同运作模式分析

在国内外供应链管理研究及河北港口群煤炭业务现状调研分析的基础上,剖析现阶段港口煤炭供应链运营管理的问题。聚焦河北港口群煤炭供应链模式构建过程,梳理港口煤炭供应链管理流程,构建河北港口群供应链管理模式、物流协同模式、物流体系及物流供应链协同信息化支撑模式,解决制约港口煤炭供应链的信息共享不及时、信息流通不畅等问题。对港口煤炭供应链协同运作信息化体系进行总体框架设计,并选择典型平台建设探讨供应链协同运作信息化体系支撑实现模式,形成高效、科学、先进的河北港口群煤炭供应链管理模式。