Twenty Years of Rail Crowding Valuation Studies: Evidence and Lessons from British Experience

Abstract

This paper reviews evidence from British experience of the valuation of rail crowding obtained over 20 years from 17 studies. It summarizes these studies, places some useful empirical evidence in the public domain and draws lessons from this considerable body of evidence and experience. Crowding valuations, both for standing and seated in crowding conditions, are summarized in terms of time multipliers, which are inherently more transferable than monetary equivalents. A meta‐analysis of 208 valuations is reported, finding the valuations to vary with load factor and journey purpose. The seating multiplier averages 1.19 and the standing multiplier averages 2.32. The latter is in line with widely used multipliers applied to walking and waiting time. The most recent evidence is based around the number of standing passengers per square metre, thereby providing a more accurate measure of the discomfort of standing since, unlike load factor, it allows for the layout of the carriage and ease with which crowding can be accommodated. As far as methodology is concerned, the paper covers issues such as presenting crowding in ‘stated preference’ exercises and the realism of the crowding levels offered, non‐linearities in the relationship between crowding multipliers and the severity and amount of crowding time, and probabilistic versus deterministic representations of crowding. The paper also identifies future areas for research.     

The Impact of Container Type Diversification on Regional British Port Development Strategies

Abstract

Despite a concentration of container traffic in the southeast of the UK over the last few decades, regional ports are attempting new development strategies to capture or retain specific traffic segments. These include intra-European short-sea traffic and a potentially increasing feeder market. These trends are reflected in the movement of different container types, which result in a number of planning challenges related to changing infrastructural and operational requirements. This paper uses highly disaggregated data on container type movements to address three issues that can inform these planning challenges. First, the imbalance of trade resulting in empty container repositioning; second, the requirement for gauge-cleared rail routes to cater for the increasing proportion of high-cube containers; and third, the specialisation of European short-sea traffic at secondary UK ports. The results reveal the disproportionate repositioning of empty containers at Scottish ports and the importance of 45?ft, high-cube and pallet-wide containers at regional ports, highlighting their focus on intra-European short-sea traffic and raising difficulties relating to their lower quality of landside infrastructure (particularly rail) in comparison to the large south-eastern ports. The potential repercussions on hinterland infrastructure development raise questions about both public and private sector responses to regional port development.     

长江中游干线降雨对航运影响的气候变化特征

根据降雨对内河航运影响的特点,将影响程度划分为轻微影响、一般影响和明显影响三个等级.利用长江中游干线17个站点1965-2008年的降雨数据,结合小波分析方法,研究了该地降雨对航运不同程度影响的气候变化特征.研究结果表明:降雨对航运业造成明显影响的频次较多且随时间波动大;降雨造成的各等级影响频次均具有微弱的下降趋势,气候倾向率的绝对值都＜0.3d/10 a;各等级影响频次变化的时间周期震荡大致相同,均为20 a左右,且周期分界点大致相同;由小波周期可以预测,未来15a内各等级影响的频次均将处于偏多时期,降雨将更加频繁地对航运业造成影响.     

航运服务产业链的内涵与生成机理

为研究航运服务产业链的内涵与生成机理,在对国内外相关文献梳理的基础上,提出了航运服务产业链的定义,分析其产业构成.在对航运服务产业链生成的三类研究路径分析的基础上,构建了一个综合分析框架:外部促进、内部驱动和适应性选择.根据该分析框架,分析了航运服务产业链生成的外生机理和内生机理,归纳了其生成的动力.     

基于博弈论的货主船队发展风险及合作研究

干散货船队业务经营范围遍及全球,其波动周期和变化规律与全球贸易及世界经济紧密相关.为了探讨干散货货主船队快速发展引发的航运市场风险及货主企业与专业船队合作共赢的途径,在理论分析的基础上,运用博弈论相关理论知识建立了货主企业与航运企业的动态博弈模型,并提出货主企业与专业船队应将共同组建船队及签订长期运输合同作为主要的合作模式.该研究对于促进干散货航运市场的稳定及货主企业和专业船队发展具有现实意义.     

海上安全和保安新形势下船员档案管理面临的机遇与挑战

从保障航运安全的角度考虑,船员档案管理有其突出的地位和作用。本文阐述并分析了我国船员档案管理的现状、管理的方式、存在的不足及面临的机遇和挑战,为我国船员档案管理的建设能够适应当前国际海运安全新形势的要求提供了一些借鉴和参考。     

人民币升值对国际航运业的影响

分析人民币升值对航运市场及国际航运企业财务状况、经营竞争力的影响,认为人民币升值使国际航运企业航运收入减少,航运成本增加,经营竞争力下降,并提出相应对策。     

坚持创新精神快速发展天津港

20世纪90年代以来,国际运输业正经历着由彼此割裂的运输方式向不断整合集约的运输方式发展,全新一代的港航发展模式正在酝酿中。港航合作战略,即指港口企业和航运企业之间,通过各种方式的合作,实现各自发展目标的一种总体设计和宏观规划。本文从理论角度分析港口航运企业合作原因以及合作过程中需要注意的问题。     

规模报酬递增在国际贸易理论中的地位与我国的政策选择

规模报酬递增说解释了许多传统贸易理论所不能解释的新贸易现象,从五个方面对传统理论进行了修正和完善,在国际贸易理论中占有重要的地位。根据规模报酬递增的贸易思想,我们应从培育规模经济出发,把产业政策与出口贸易政策更好地结合起来,实现由贸易大国向贸易强国的根本转变。     

中国铁路产业国际竞争力分析

研究目的：研究国际铁路市场环境和国内铁路产业现状，提出提升中国铁路产业国际竞争力的对策和建议，实现中国铁路产业在全球范围内的市场布局和资源利用。研究方法：通过对当前国际铁路市场环境、中国铁路产业国际竞争力的比较研究和实证研究，分析中国铁路产业参与国际铁路市场的竞争能力。研究结论：中国铁路产业已经具备参与国际市场竞争的比较优势，铁路建筑企业应利用国家政策扶持和金融支持，以资源整合能力、系统集成能力和独特的适应性技术优势，带动中国铁路产业整体“走出去”，不断提升中国铁路产业国际竞争力。