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31.
公路主枢纽方案评价中,定性因素与定量因素并存,正相关与负相关系数混杂。层次分析(AHP)法,需定量描述各方案每一因素的隶属度值,而这类隶属度值的确定十分困难,并且不可避免的融入较多的主观色彩。模糊一致矩阵法则避开了特征因子矩阵的建立,利用优先关系系数来描述方案间的优劣,在大量定性因素与定量因素并存的决策中成功地避开了隶属度确定。实践证明,采用模糊一致矩阵方法对长春公路主枢纽货运站场布局方案进行优选,效果理想。 相似文献
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Activity-based models of travel demand have received considerable attention in transportation planning and forecasting in recent years. However, in most cases they use a micro-simulation approach, thereby inevitably including a stochastic error that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components. As a consequence, running a transport micro-simulation model several times with the same input will generate different outputs, which baffles practitioners in applying such a model and in interpreting the results. A common approach is therefore to run the model multiple times and to use the average value of the results. The question then becomes: what is the minimum number of model runs required to reach a stable result? In this paper, systematic experiments are carried out using Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS (FEATHERS), an activity-based micro-simulation modelling framework currently implemented for the Flanders region of Belgium. Six levels of geographic detail are taken into account. Three travel indices – average daily activities per person, average daily trips per person and average daily distance travelled per person, as well as their corresponding segmentations – are calculated by running the model 100 times. The results show that the more disaggregated the level, the larger the number of model runs is needed to ensure confidence. Furthermore, based on the time-dependent origin-destination table derived from the model output, traffic assignment is performed by loading it onto the Flemish road network, and the total vehicle kilometres travelled in the whole Flanders are subsequently computed. The stable results at the Flanders level provides model users with confidence that application of FEATHERS at an aggregated level requires only limited model runs. 相似文献
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Katharina ParryMartin L. Hazelton 《Transportation Research Part B: Methodological》2012,46(1):175-188
Estimation of origin-destination (OD) matrices from link count data is a challenging problem because of the highly indeterminate relationship between the observations and the latent route flows. Conversely, estimation is straightforward if we observe the path taken by each vehicle. We consider an intermediate problem of increasing practical importance, in which link count data is supplemented by routing information for a fraction of vehicles on the network. We develop a statistical model for these combined data sources and derive some tractable normal approximations thereof. We examine likelihood-based inference for these normal models under the assumption that the probability of vehicle tracking is known. We show that the likelihood theory can be non-standard because of boundary effects, and provide conditions under which such irregular behaviour will be observed in practice. For regular cases we outline connections with existing generalised least squares methods. We then consider estimation of OD matrices under estimated and/or misspecified models for the probability of vehicle tracking. Theoretical developments are complemented by simulation experiments and an illustrative example using a section of road network from the English city of Leicester. 相似文献
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随着投入运营的时间增加,高速公路运营管理中的矛盾日益突出,如何确定科学合理的道路收费率,成为道路经营者普遍关注的问题。在收费标准基本模型的基础上提出了收费标准方案评估模型,利用判断矩阵选择最佳方案,并制定了相应的收费标准的动态调整方法。 相似文献
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针对传统的频率响应分析(FRA)法无法识别自耦变压器绕组常见轴向移位故障的问题,提出基于动态分频段的FRA法:首先,搭建自耦变压器轴向移位故障模拟平台,获取不同轴向移位故障下绕组频响数据;其次,将幅频特性曲线波峰点与相频特性曲线C-L过零点频率相同的点作为预备分频点,同时将频响数据动态划分为多个频段,并绘制分频段极坐标图;然后,提取极坐标图的4个灰度梯度共生矩阵纹理特征和对应的归一化特征参数;最后,通过图形与特征的变化规律分析自耦变压器绕组的状态。试验验证结果表明:采用基于动态分频段的FRA法,生成的极坐标图数据点重叠情况得到改善,有利于图形分析和特征提取;不同绕组发生轴向移位故障时,各频段极坐标图变化趋势明显;同一绕组发生不同程度轴向故障时,极坐标图随故障程度增加差异呈变大的趋势;采用基于动态分频段的FRA法能准确区分自耦变压器轴向移位的故障绕组与故障程度,并能为自耦变压器现场故障诊断提供参考。 相似文献
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利用差分扫描热分析研究了利用Al-Nb2O5系统制备Al2O3颗粒增强金属基复合材 料这的原位反应过程:用X-射线衍射分析了反应过程中的相变.实验结果表明,Nb 的还原和NbAl3金属间化合物的形成反应发生在Al的熔点以下;在939℃完成.在低温 下,试样的局部发生少量的原位反应;整个试样内部同时发生原位反应是在939℃放热峰 所覆盖的温度区间.最终显微组织中存在相同形态不同尺寸的NbAl3相.低温形成的 NbAl3相由于经历了长大过程而尺寸较大;高温形成的NbAl3相尺寸较小. 相似文献
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