考虑不确定性因素的路径优化(英文)

A route optimization methodology in the frame of an onboard decision support/guidance system for the ship’s master has been developed and is presented in this paper.The method aims at the minimization of the fuel voyage cost and the risks related to the ship’s seakeeping performance expected to be within acceptable limits of voyage duration.Parts of this methodology were implemented by interfacing alternative probability assessment methods,such as Monte Carlo,first order reliability method(FORM) and second order reliability method(SORM),and a 3-D seakeeping code,including a software tool for the calculation of the added resistance in waves of NTUA-SDL.The entire system was integrated within the probabilistic analysis software PROBAN.Two of the main modules for the calculation of added resistance and the probabilistic assessment for the considered seakeeping hazards with respect to exceedance levels of predefined threshold values are herein elaborated and validation studies proved their efficiency in view of their implementation into an on-board optimization system.     

“南海发现号”FPSO的雷击风险评估

采用雷击风险评估的基本原则和方法,通过分析雷暴活动资料和雷击油轮时的破坏途径和机理,结合油船的特殊性找出"南海发现号"FPSO存在的雷击风险种类和各种风险分量,为实施防雷改造提供科学依据。     

系列自升式钻井平台桩靴设计与强度评估

自升式平台桩靴的设计形式和结构强度关系到整个平台性能和安全。针对所设计的400ft水深自升式平台两种桩靴结构形式,应用MSC/NASTRAN软件建立有限元模型,依据ABS规范要求并根据实际环境设计结构强度评估工况,对两种桩靴结构进行强度校核,同时计算桩靴各部分质量,分析计算结果最终得出一种较优的桩靴结构形式。     

船台工程结构的安全性评估

对达到或超过设计使用年限、擅自提高使用功能的船台,需对其进行安全性评估,分析和论证船台的造船和大修能力。安全性评估应在现使用荷载条件下对结构构件进行复核验算,验算内容应包括结构的受力、配筋或位移变化情况,并结合现场调查和检测情况综合分析。结合工程实例对船台工程结构的安全性评估进行阐述,可作为其它结构物评估的参考依据。     

城际铁路桥上纵向承台式无砟轨道扣件系统关键参数研究

为研究城际铁路纵向承台式无砟轨道扣件系统关键参数取值,基于车辆-轨道耦合动力学理论,建立客车-无砟轨道-桥梁耦合动力学模型,分析扣件刚度、扣件间距对桥上无砟轨道系统动力响应的影响规律,并基于层次分析法,对桥上无砟轨道系统动力特性进行综合评价。结果表明:随着扣件系统刚度增大,钢轨垂向位移减小,车体振动加速度、轮轨垂向力、轮重减载率和桥梁振动加速度均增大;随着扣件间距的增大,轮轨垂向力减小,车体振动加速度、轮重减载率、钢轨垂向位移和桥梁振动加速度均增大;综合考虑轨道变形以及工程造价,建议扣件系统刚度为50～80 kN/mm,扣件间距为0.6～0.7 m。     

新型中压逆变回馈装置在天津地铁中的应用研究

基于天津地铁在中压逆变回馈装置应用方面的实践经验,从系统安全性、保护配置、阈值设定、控制系统等方面分析技术可行性评价需考虑的关键问题。结合天津地铁7号线的线路条件,阐述用系统仿真软件进行节能效果分析时需考虑的因素,并进行数据计算及对比分析,给出系统容量选择时参考值的确定及校核方法。     

基于出行行为模型的出行感染风险评估 ——以新冠肺炎疫情期间江苏省地区为例

为准确评估新冠肺炎疫情期间的出行感染风险，在对出行行为进行全出行链建模基础上提出出行风险评估模型.基于江苏省确诊病例流行病学调查报告和线上问卷调查数据，分别对病毒携带者和普通出行者出行行为模型进行参数标定，对比分析病毒携带者和普通出行者出行行为的异同.进一步对疫情期间不同出行方式和出行活动进行感染风险评估. 得到结论：交通管制措施可有效降低出行感染风险，就医出行风险明显高于其他出行活动，差旅在疫情传播初期风险较高，非机动车出行风险相对较低.     

Sources and exposure risk of trace elements for traffic policemen in roadside locations

Samples of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ at four types of roadside location (major road, secondary road, branch road, and expressway) in Tianjin were collected and analyzed in 2015. The average annual roadside PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations were higher than the national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS: GB3095-2012). The chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), zinc (Zn), arsenic (As), and cadmium (Cd) concentrations in both PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ over four seasons displayed significant differences (p < 0.05). An enrichment factor (EF) analysis revealed that Cd, copper (Cu), Zn, As, Ni, and Pb in PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ mainly originated from anthropogenic sources. A factor analysis (FA) and correlation analysis (CA) revealed that vehicle emissions (exhaust and non-exhaust), soil dust, coal combustion, and industrial emissions were the main sources of roadside PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ in Tianjin. Both the total hazard quotients (total HQ) and the total carcinogenic risk (total CR) for selected elements in PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were within acceptable limits. The HQ of Pb was higher than for other metals, and it should therefore be given special attention. The CR for traffic policemen was highest for Cr exposure (1.01 × 10⁻⁵ for PM_2.5 and 1.52 × 10⁻⁵ for PM₁₀), followed by As and Ni. A sensitivity analysis showed that the total contributions of the metal concentrations, exposure time (ET), and exposure frequency (EF) accounted for over 50% of the risk for Cr, As, and Ni, suggesting that these metals had the greatest impact on the uncertainty of health risk assessments.     

基于ERP系统的产品生命周期评价

为了完善企业资源计划(ERP)系统中可用于产品生命周期评价(LCA)的数据，如材料、产品、工艺流程、运输和固体废弃物等，提出了一种支持LCA的ERP系统框架．在这一系统框架中，通过增加环境管理功能模块，可以连续跟踪、分析和控制产品环境数据，从而实现LCA数据收集的自动化．     

浅论公路工程特尔菲评标法

通过分析当前公路工程评标的现状,指出目前普遍采用的专家会议法的利弊,介绍一种较先进的评标方法——特尔菲法(Delphi)。