声吸收系数对声自导鱼雷作用距离影响的仿真分析

鱼雷自导作用距离与声波在海水中的传播损失有关,论文通过研究仿真声吸收系数对鱼雷自导作用距离和鱼雷捕获概率的影响,得出了增加吸收系数能有效减少来袭鱼雷自导作用距离,降低其捕获概率的结论,对水下作战平台防御鱼雷攻击有着重要意义.     

Analysis of train derailment after hitting the pier of tongling yangtze river bridge combined road with railwayEI北大核心

Research purposes: Precise prediction for mechanical behavior of the bridge under ship collision force is important to assess the analysis of train derailment after hitting the pier. This paper focuses on the Tongling Yangtze River Bridge Combined Road with Railway for ship collision simulation, uses the nonlinear finite element software of ANSYS/LS-DYNA to simulate the ship's bow section of 10000 t and 5000 t class hitting bridge tower column at front and axle to 20° of side in highest navigable water level, conventional navigable water level and the minimum navigable water level. Curves of collision force-period at different working conditions are summarized. On this basis, when the impact load affects as input loads, the displacement and acceleration response can be used by finite element analysis under the collision and study the dynamic response of the bridge caused by a train derailment risk. Research conclusions: (1) The impact force of the bridge is largest when a laden ship is hitting the pier at the highest navigable water level. In the most unfavorable condition, the collision have lardge impact on bridge structure and derailment risk of trains. (2) The transverse acceleration of the girder on the top of 2# pier can reach to 0.922 m/s2, but it does not exceed acceleration excitation limit (1 m/s2) when 3# piers are hitted by the 10000 t ship at the peak load of collision, so the probability of train derailment is minimal. (3) Based on the probability formula of the derailment by simplifying risk criteria, the derailment probability of train is 9×10-5~1.5×10-4 during the ship-bridge collision. (4) The research results can provide the reference for train traffic safety on railway bridge caused by ship collisions.     

The effect of green time on stochastic queues at traffic signals

Many analyses of traffic signal queues use Webster and Cobbe's formula, which combines the net effect of the red/green cycle with a term representing stochastic effects, idealised as an M/D/1 queue process having random arrivals and uniform service. Several authors have noted that this component should depend not only on demand intensity but also on throughput capacity in each green period, although an extra empirical term may partially allow for this. Extending the service interval in M/D/1 (M = Markovian, i.e. random, D = deterministic, i.e. uniform, 1 = one server) enables the effect to be reproduced, but no exact expressions for its moments are found. Approximate formulae for the extended mean exist but are accurate only near saturation. The paper derives novel approximations for the equilibrium mean and also variance and utilisation, using functions linking traffic intensity with green period capacity. With three moments, equilibrium probability distributions can be estimated for which a method based on a doubly nested geometric distribution is described.     

在役隧道环境侵蚀下管片承载能力概率劣化模型

在役盾构隧道管片衬砌的承载能力劣化模型是隧道结构耐久性评价及科学养护的基础.以建立能考虑工程不确定性的钢筋混凝土管片概率承载能力劣化模型为目标,考虑隧道运营环境的主要侵蚀因子及管片衬砌的压弯受力特性,建立碳化侵蚀与氯离子侵蚀下管片主筋的锈蚀模型;考虑锈蚀管片中钢筋的截面面积损失以及钢筋[混凝土黏结滑移,以钢筋锈蚀率为媒...     

基于一类桥梁样本的混凝土简支桥梁地震易损性分析方法

基于一类简支桥梁样本进行地震易损性分析,通过非线性时程分析得到构件响应,建立概率需求模型。采用定义的损伤状态函数计算构件的易损性曲线,并通过各个构件连接方式的串联假定,计算得到桥梁体系的易损性曲线。分析可知,桥台是最易损的部位,如果各个构件相互独立,体系易损性曲线与最易损构件的易损性曲线相差无几。     

液化石油气铁路罐车运输风险研究

风险分析是实施事前预防和事后救援的依据.为了进行定量风险分析,在对液化石油气铁路罐车运输风险进行定性分析的基础上,引入事故概率修正系数计算泄漏事故概率,并确定了构成事故后果的3个要素.应用Alo-ha软件模拟泄漏过程和泄漏区域,进而建立了风险度量模型.最后,针对主要的风险影响因素,提出了减缓风险的可行措施.     

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以复杂网络理论为基础,分析海运网络的拓扑结构具有无标度网络特性,可运用BA无标度网络模型构建演化海运网络.连接概率是BA模型中节点优先连接的重要依据,据此,针对海运网络港口节点进行研究,通过加权量化和MATLAB编程将影响节点间连接的因素组成节点吸引度,引入连接概率公式,改进了BA模型.分别选取2010年全球15个和25个主要集装箱港口的相关数据,运用上述改进BA模型分别得到不同规模的海运网络演化情况,演化结果验证了海运复杂网络具有无标度网络特征,呈现的特性与网络规模没有必然联系,规模大的网络平均路径更长、集聚性更强,度值相差更悬殊.进一步运用全球班轮航线实际网络进行验证,得到两者结构特性基本相同.     

Accommodating perceptual conditioning in the valuation of expected travel time savings for cars and public transport

Travel time variability (i.e., random variations in travel time) leads to a travel time distribution for a repeated trip from a fixed origin to destination (e.g., from home to work). To represent travel time variability, a series of possible travel times per alternative (departure time, route or mode) are often used in stated choice experiments. In the traditional models, the probabilities associated with different travel scenarios (e.g., arriving early, on time and late) shown in the experiments are directly used as weights. However, evidence from psychology suggests that the shown probabilities may be transformed (underweighted or overweighted) by respondents. To account for this transformation of probabilities, this study incorporates perceptual conditioning through a non-linear probability weighting function into a utility maximisation framework, within which the empirical estimate of the value of expected travel time savings is estimated. The key advantage of this framework is that the estimated willingness to pay value can be directly linked to the source of utility (i.e., the probability distribution of travel time), while taking into account the perceptual transformation of probabilities.     

双车道公路弯道驾驶轨迹跟踪模型

针对双车道公路弯道轨迹跟踪行为的瞬时多变性,及驾驶人模糊感知与主观决策能力导致的不确定性,通过分析驾驶人在前方弯道线形影响下的驾驶特性,引入转向驾驶行为控制因素,运用多目标模糊优选决策理论,研究了模糊性和主观性对轨迹跟踪行为的影响规律;基于灰色理论,利用主观与客观相结合的权重确定方法,建立了轨迹跟踪模型.选择5处曲线路段进行实地试验,通过试验结果与仿真结果的对比,验证了本文模型的有效性.研究结果表明:行驶轨迹弧长、横向力系数和轨迹侧向偏移是轨迹跟踪行为的控制因素;综合考虑主观与客观因素的权重确定方法,体现了驾驶人在模糊优选决策轨迹跟踪行为中的主观特性.      

基于类间和类内方差的快速二维阈值分割法

为了提高二维阈值分割法的处理速度,提出二维类间方差最大法的快速实现方法.首先,将二维最佳阈值（s*,t*）的求解拆分成两个一维最佳阈值s*和t*的求解,并引入类内距离的定义,提出新的最佳阈值判别式.其次,将原二维直方图分成M×M个区域,合并每个区域为一点,并构建新的二维直方图,在其上应用本文改进的阈值判别式D（s*,t*）求解,得到分割阈值所在的区域编号.最后,在该区域内再次使用D（s*,t*）求解得到原始图像的最佳分割阈值.理论分析及针对不同信噪比的多幅图像的实验结果表明,本文方法的分割错误率低于原始二维Otsu法,且将原算法的时间复杂度由O（L4）降为O（L1/2）,空间复杂度由S（L2）降为S（2L）.