精确制导武器对地面目标毁伤效能研究

从对地攻击靶场效能评估的角度出发,讨论了制导武器毁伤地面目标效能的模型、所采用的效能指标及效能指标的计算方法,最后给出了一个对单个目标毁伤效能的算例分析。     

On the fundamental diagram and supply curves for congested urban networks

Macroscopic fundamental diagrams (MFD) of traffic for some networks have been shown to have similar shape to those for single links. They have erroneously been used to help estimate the level of travel in congested networks. We argue that supply curves, which track vehicles in their passage through congested networks, are needed for this purpose, and that they differ from the performance curves generated from MFD. We use a microsimulation model, DRACULA and two networks, one synthesizing the network for Cambridge, England, and one of the city of York, England, to explore the nature of performance curves and supply curves under differing patterns of demand.We show that supply curves differ from performance curves once the onset of congestion is reached, and that the incorrect use of performance curves to estimate demand can thus seriously underestimate traffic levels, the costs of congestion, and the value of congestion relief measures. We also show that network aggregated supply curves are sensitive to the temporal distribution of demand and, potentially, to the spatial distribution of demand. The shape of the supply curve also differs between origin–destination movements within a given network.We argue that supply curves for higher levels of demand cannot be observed in normal traffic conditions, and specify ways in which they can be determined from microsimulation and, potentially, by extrapolating observed data. We discuss the implications of these findings for conventional modelling of network management policies, and for these policies themselves.     

隧道与互通出口小净距路段换道可靠性研究

为分析高速公路隧道与互通出口小净距路段在不同交通流状况下的车辆驶出概率,提出了基于交通仿真的安全换道概率模型。首先,采用VISSIM标定仿真模型并进行正交试验,获取小净距路段在不同净距长度、交通量、驶出比例、大型车比例下的交通数据,在此基础上确定瞬时交通流密度及相应车流平均速度的计算方法,构建相应的分布模型,通过K均值聚类算法研究不同速度下的瞬时交通流密度大小和出现概率;同时引入可靠度方法并利用微分法来构建车辆安全换道概率模型,综合考虑车速、车流密度、目标车道临界可插入间隙等因素的不确定性,应用蒙特卡罗仿真法搭建求解概率模型的算法,并通过MATLAB对模型进行求解;针对分流车初始位置的不同,分别得到了不同交通量、大型车比例、净距长度下的换道驶出成功率,进而研究不同交通流状况组合下的净距长度。结果表明：交通量、大型车比例、净距长度对净距路段内侧车道车辆换道驶出成功率有显著性影响,研究结果可为规范的进一步完善提供参考。     

城市道路交叉口借道右转车道设置方法

为了弥补交叉口空间布局中对借道右转车道研究的不足,分析了借道右转车辆在两相邻交叉口间的运行过程,将两交叉口间距分为四部分。采用波动理论、考虑驾驶员的操作顺适性以及采用概率论方法,建立了借道右转的右转车道适宜开口位置模型、借道右转的绿化带开口长度模型和路段右转车辆的合流段长度模型,在此基础上得到了实施借道右转的两交叉口最小间距模型。实例分析表明,所得模型符合两相邻交叉口间的交通流运行实际,对于判断两相邻交叉口是否适合于设置借道右转,以及设置借道右转时如何对各构成部分进行分析具有指导意义。     

装配式梁桥横向协同工作性能度量指标的研究

为了表征运营期间装配式梁桥的横向协同工作性能,提出了一种间接度量指标——相邻预制梁间的应变相关系数;同时建立了装配式梁桥的简化力学模型,通过推导建立了该指标的解析表达式。理论分析和数值仿真研究表明,在保证足够的样本长度条件下,交通流荷载趋向统计稳定,此时结构特性成为该度量指标的唯一影响因素,证明了该指标具备表征装配式梁桥横向协同工作性能的条件。     

驳船的影响概率破舱稳性单因素研究

概率破舱稳性是干货船破舱稳性计算与校核的一项强制性要求,它不同于传统的破舱稳性计算,计算中涉及到大量的破损舱室的组合,目前仍然是在分舱之后才能进行分析计算,若不满足则需要返回重新分舱。在初步设计阶段,如何有效分舱以使船舶分舱设计能满足概率破舱稳性,以减少分舱的盲目性与重复性,从而找到基于概率破舱稳性的分舱指导原则,这将具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。以某实际工程驳船为研究对象,设计了大量的分舱方案,并分别对其进行概率破舱稳性计算。根据计算结果对影响分舱指数A的因素进行了定性分析,提出了改进分舱指数A的设计准则。     

内河航道工程财务效益探讨

以杭嘉湖航道网改造工程为实例,采用敏感性分析和概率分析的方法,分别按改扩建项目和新建项目,探讨不同收费方式下内河航道工程的财务效益。研究结果表明,运量大的长湖申线有一定的财务效益,项目自身具有生存能力,但运量小的六平申线,财务效益差,投资决策应注重其社会效益。     

舰载激光武器

本文简要阐述舰载激光武器研制背景，特点和分类，着重阐述激光武器的使命，组成，关键技术，高能激光器，发射系统，捕获，跟踪，瞄准系统，大气传输等。文末阐述了舰载激光武器装舰情况和应用前景。     

A new channel allocation scheme for hierarchical wireless networks

A channel allocation scheme for hierarchical wireless networks was proposed in terms of the connection-level quality of service. The channel allocation scheme was analyzed using both horizontal channel borrowing and vertical traffic overflowing. Pre-emptive priority strategies are used to classify real-time services and non-real-time services, real-time service is given higher priority for it is allowed to pre-empt channels used by non-real-time service. Some channel borrowing thresholds and acceptance ratios are used to avoid channel locking or dynamic power control, which can also be dynamically adjusted according to network load. Simula-tion results show that the proposed schemes can improve the system performance.     

铁道车辆液压减振器卸荷速度选取方法

为了精确选取铁道车辆各类液压减振器的卸荷速度,提出了一种选取卸荷速度的2σ方法。通过试验测试和动力学仿真计算,得到液压减振器两端的相对速度,并进行概率统计分析、参数估计和概率分布假设检验。在相对速度属正态分布的前提下,计算相对速度的2σ值,并作为减振器的卸荷速度。计算结果表明:通过该方法确定卸荷速度的液压减振器可使95%的车辆低频振动得到衰减,5%的高频振动得到过滤。