Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

Development and Deployment of Public Transport Policy and Planning in Taiwan

Over the past decade, the escalating roadway congestion and environmental deterioration due to heavy use of private vehicles have provoked the Taiwan government to realize the importance of public transport systems. Under the “carrot-and-stick” rationales, the government has formulated public transport policies and exercised a series of related initiatives by providing sufficient and higher quality of public transport services so as to attract more private vehicle users. In this paper, the planning philosophy and policy formulation of Taiwan’s public transport development are highlighted. The most important initiatives, including the Five-year Enhancement of Mass Transportation Program and the upgrading public transport schemes in the National Development Plan are examined. Based on previous experience and lessons, we point out the most challenging issues that the government will encounter. Suggestions for the future of public transport planning are also addressed.     

论国土资源管理领域中的地质工作

地质工作与国土资源管理工作联系紧密,地质学科的专业知识在管理工作中应用广泛。最近十几年来,地质管理工作的深度和广度不足。由于政府的重视,地质工作重新得到了充分的肯定,地质工作在国土资源管理领域做出了越来越大的贡献。建立系统项目库、与信息技术的结合、加强地质人才的培养及促进人与地质环境和谐是地质工作发挥更大作用的几个发展方向。     

Aggregate expenditure elasticity for transport and communication in Australia

For the purpose of estimating Engel elasticity, one needs to find the best functional form among various alternatives. In this paper, a new function, which is called the double semi-log Engel function turns out to be the best functional form for the transport and communication items in Australia on the basis of the distance function (D²) criterion, and the non-nested hypothesis testing procedure. This function is then used to estimate total expenditure elasticity, and the percentage change in consumer demand due to changes in total expenditure and total expenditure inequalities; using the 1975–76 Household Expenditure Survey data. The results of the analyses demonstrate that transport and communication is a necessary item in Australia on the basis of two criteria, viz., its elasticity is not significantly greater than unity, and the percentage change in demand increases with a decrease of the total expenditure inequality [emphasised by Iyengar (I960)]. Policy implication of the analyses has also been discussed.     

局域轨道交通系统规划编制思路和方法探讨——以上海市宝山区为例

宝山区作为上海市北部门户,要积极加强对外辐射和对内联系,推动上海大都市圈一体化协同发展,客观上需要进一步强化交通功能,完善综合运输体系,形成上海北部枢纽。从轨道交通市域线、市区线、局域线三个层次,对区内轨道交通系统规划编制思路、客流预测、线网规模、布局方案等进行了探讨,以期对区域总体规划编制提供参考和借鉴。     

Time windows in workers' activity patterns: Empirical evidence from the Netherlands

This paper assumes that activities at the home and work location are important determinants of individuals' paths through time and space. Fixed activities at these locations determine to a large extent the duration and timing of time windows – blocks of time available for participation in travel and out-of-home non-work activities. Taking the time spent at home and at the workplace as a starting point, this paper classifies activity patterns on workdays into six groups with distinct home- and work-stay patterns. For this, data are used from the 1998 Netherlands National Travel Survey. The six clusters vary in terms of the duration and timing of time windows and some of the differences can be explained by commute characteristics, types of non-work activities performed, workers' sociodemographic attributes, and their spatiotemporal environment. However, the impact of sociodemographic and spatiotemporal variables on cluster membership is shown to be weak.     

北京城市交通发展战略研究

本文综合分析了北京城市交通现状，运用生产力布局的理论对北京城市交通拥堵的原因进行分析，探索了国内外大城市交通发展的最新趋势，根据发展“首都经济”的要求．提出解决北京城市交通拥堵问题，必须采取标本兼治，并提出北京城市交通发展战略研究的有关建议。.     

基于火场信息的地铁车站智能疏散技术研究

火灾是城市轨道交通车站内影响最为严重的事故之一,科学合理的安全疏散方案是突发火灾时确保乘客出行安全的重要保障。然而,目前地铁车站火灾疏散方案中的疏散路线难以根据火场情况动态调整。针对地铁车站疏散路径固定单一的弊端,基于地铁车站内的监控系统,利用计算机视觉技术识别人员分布信息和火灾发生位置,建立空间拓扑模型,利用改进的蚁群算法规划出耗时最短且转弯次数较少的疏散路线,实现站内乘客更科学高效的疏散,最后通过3个场景的案例应用验证本文所提疏散方法的有效性。     

基于顶层设计的佛山市 TOD综合开发总体策略

为提高轨道交通沿线土地综合开发效益,引导城市轨道交通站点综合开发有序发展并保障对城市可持续发展的支撑作用,基于顶层设计的角度创新研究佛山市 TOD(transit-oriented development)综合开发总体策略。首先,梳理作为粤港澳大湾区重要特大城市的佛山市现阶段轨道交通综合开发工作中面临的利益共享机制缺失、沿线土地未提前收储、场站选址规划统筹不足、轨道建设与综合开发时序错配等实际问题;然后,在建立合理开发的整体协调框架的基础上提出完善顶层设计、加强战略统筹、提前土地整备收储、探索多元供地等开发对策;最后,以佛山市城市轨道交通第二期建设规划线路(4 号线一期、2 号线二期和 11 号线)沿线用地规划实践为例,从顶层政策问题、顶层规划问题(国土空间规划与综合交通规划统筹问题)、土地问题(土地整备收储、多元供地模式问题)、TOD 建设模式问题等多个层面,探索建立符合佛山市特色的综合开发顶层设计实践路径,提出适合佛山市实际的 TOD 综合开发总体策略,有效指导沿线站点周边土地综合开发实施落地,为国内类似的都市圈特大城市提供有借鉴意义的顶层设计实践经验与参考依据。     

公路网络路线布局优化的双层规划模型及算法研究

首先分析了省、市级公路网布局的特点和要求,然后通过将连续变量离散化、引入双层规划模型,建立了适合省、市级公路网络的路线布局双层规划模型。最后研究了模型的求解算法,将模拟退火算法应用于公路网络路线布局优化问题中,应用V isual Basic 6.0语言开发了相应的算法程序。