A new composite decision support framework for strategic and sustainable transport appraisals

This paper concerns the development of a new decision support framework for the appraisal of transport infrastructure projects. In such appraisals there will often be a need for including both conventional transport impacts as well as criteria of a more strategic and/or sustainable character. The proposed framework is based on the use of cost-benefit analysis featuring feasibility risk assessment in combination with multi-criteria decision analysis and is supported by the concept of decision conferencing. The framework is applied for a transport related case study dealing with the complex decision problem of determining the most attractive alternative for a new fixed link between Denmark and Sweden – the so-called HH-connection. Applying the framework to the case study made it possible to address the decision problem from an economic, a strategic, and a sustainable point of view simultaneously. The outcome of the case study demonstrates the decision making framework as a valuable decision support system (DSS), and it is concluded that appraisals of transport projects can be effectively supported by the use of the DSS. Finally, perspectives of the future modelling work are given.     

Collision course? The North Airfield Safety Study at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)

The LAX North Airfield Safety Study was undertaken by an Academic Panel consisting of the present authors, and was based in large part on a simulation that was conducted at FutureFlight Central at NASA Ames Research Center. The primary aim of the study was “to estimate as specifically as possible the level of future safety associated with several geometrical configurations of the LAX North Airfield.” This paper describes the study, and how it combined information from human-in-the-loop simulations at NASA with historical data from LAX and other US airports about runway incursions and collisions. The analysis indicated that, even under its existing physical layout, LAX North would experience very low risk of runway collisions at traffic levels projected for 2020. That risk could be reduced by about half if the North Airfield runways were reconfigured, and some reconfigurations would also add appreciably to the operational efficiency of the airport. But because the “baseline” level of risk is so low, the Study concluded that “it would be difficult to construct a compelling case on safety grounds alone for reconfiguring the North Airfield.”     

Multi-objective optimization for asphalt pavement maintenance plans at project level: Integrating performance,cost and environment

Traditionally, asphalt pavement maintenance mainly considers pavement performance and cost and largely ignores the environment while substantial amount of environmental burdens are released in the process. In this study, a multi-objective optimization model was developed integrating the three elements in order to optimize the asphalt pavement maintenance plans at the project level. Pavement performance element was decided as the multiplier of pavement serviceability index and traffic volume. Cost element was represented by the net present value, including components of agency cost, vehicle operation cost and salvage value. Environmental element, integrating energy consumption, global warming potential, acidification potential and respiratory effects potential, was measured by the life cycle assessment model. A hypothetic asphalt pavement maintenance case study was conducted using the developed multi-objective optimization model and harvested 103 sets of feasible combinations of maintenance plans, each of which is non-dominated by the others. Trade-offs analysis was performed among the three objectives and visualized in both two- and three-dimension forms. It is found there is an opportunity of reducing the cost and environmental impacts to 80.3% and 77.8% and increasing the pavement performance to 146.6% compared to the base case. However, they are mutually compromised and cannot be reached simultaneously. The developed model reveals the quantitatively interactive relationship of the three objectives and helps optimize the asphalt pavement maintenance plans.     

Evaluating Flexible Transport Solutions

Abstract

Flexible transport services (FTS) have been of increasing interest in developing countries as a bridge between the use of personal car travel and fixed route transit services. This paper reports on findings from a recent study in Queensland Australia, which identified lessons from an international review and implications for Australia. Potential strategic directions, including a vision, mission, key result areas, strategies, and identified means of measuring performance are described. Evaluation criteria for assessing flexible transport proposals were developed, and approaches to identifying and assessing needs and demands outlined. The use of emerging technologies is also a key element of successful flexible transport services.     

Agent-based simulation framework for mixed traffic of cars,pedestrians and trams

In this paper, we report on the construction of a new framework for simulating mixed traffic consisting of cars, trams, and pedestrians that can be used to support discussions about road management, signal control, and public transit. Specifically, a layered road structure that was designed for car traffic simulations was extended to interact with an existing one-dimensional (1D) car-following model and a two-dimensional (2D) discrete choice model for pedestrians. The car model, pedestrian model, and interaction rules implemented in the proposed framework were verified through simulations involving simple road environments. The resulting simulated values were in near agreement with the empirical data. We then used the proposed framework to assess the impact of a tramway extension plan for a real city. The simulation results showed that the impact of the proposed tramway on existing car traffic would not be serious, and by extension, implied that the proposed framework could help stakeholders decide on expansion scenarios that are satisfactory to both tram users and private car owners.     

Environmental impacts of public transport systems using real-time control method

Public Transport (PT) systems rely more and more on online information extracted from both operator’s intelligent equipment and user’s smartphone applications. This allows for a better fit between supply and demand of the multimodal PT system, especially through the use of PT real-time control actions/tactics. In doing so there is also an opportunity to consider environmental-related issues to approach energy saving and reduced pollution. This study investigates and analyses the benefits of using real-time PT operational tactics in reducing the undesirable environmental impacts. A tactic-based control (TBC) optimization model is used to minimize total passenger travel time and maximize direct transfers (without waiting). The model consists of a control policy built upon a combination of three tactics: holding, skip-stops, and boarding limit. The environmental-related measure is the global warming potential (GWP) using the life cycle assessment technique. The methodology developed is applied to a real life case study in Auckland, New Zealand. Results show that TBC could reduce the GWP by means of reduction of total passenger travel times and vehicle travel cycle time. That is, the TBC model results in a 5.6% reduction in total GWP per day compared with an existing no-tactic scenario. This study supports the use of real-time control actions to maintain a reliable PT service, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and subsequently moving towards greener PT systems.     

Vehicle electrification in a developing country: Status and issue,from a well-to-wheel perspective

The increase of public attention, scientific research and political interest in environmental problems associated with transportation has provided the motivation for re-invention of electric vehicles. However the usage of grid-dependent EVs with a high-carbon electricity grid might produce more damage to the environment. This study aims to provide an environmental impact comparison of ICEVs, HEVs and EVs during their usage cycle, by modeling their energy consumption (electricity or fuel) and the supply chains of the supplied energy, (well-to-wheel) based on a life cycle assessment. The results show that running EVs with the existing mixed sources of electrical energy produce larger impacts on the environment 60% of the time; when compared to HEVs. When compared to ICEVs, EVs produce a larger environmental impact on 7 out of 15 environmental impact categories. Overall the environmental impacts of EVs are substantial based on the well-to-wheel analysis. It will continue to be so if no change is made to the methods of electricity generation in the near future. Given that the environmental profile of EVs is linked with the existing national electricity generation mix, the national electricity supply must be made cleaner before the electrification of the urban transport system.     

云南省高速公路气象灾害风险特征分析与应对

利用2013年～2015年云南省15条主要高速公路气象灾害风险普查和2016年高速公路气象敏感度调查数据,研究了云南省高速公路主要气象灾害风险特征、灾害成因,并提出了应对措施。研究结果表明:(1)云南省高速公路气象灾害隐患点主要集中在昆明、曲靖、楚雄、玉溪、普洱、文山和昭通北部等地区,从区域分布看,曲靖的隐患点数量最多为16个,从路段看,G56杭瑞高速隐患点数量最多为30个;(2)路面结冰、大雾、强降雨和团雾是影响云南省高速公路的主要气象灾害,占总数的94.4%,道路结冰是造成交通部门封路的主要气象灾害,占云南3年总封路次数的58.1%;(3)云南高速公路交通气象灾害主要是由于独特的地形、干湿分明的季节变化和相应的天气系统造成的;(4)制定了云南省高速公路气象灾害预警指标,并提出行车建议。     

车载网络安全的系统设计研究及关键技术开发

本文介绍了车载网络安全的系统设计研究及关键技术开发,以应对黑客通过网联攻击车辆,建立智能网联汽车车内网络信息安全交互模型;分析“外部网络环境”与“车内ECU群体”之间进行“信息资源”交互过程中的安全风险,研究其对车内网络信息安全的破坏机理;利用基于密码学理论研究车内网络安全通信协议的设计方法,解决车内网络在智能网联汽车环境下面临的信息安全问题。     

基于文本挖掘的地铁施工安全风险事故致险因素分析

地铁工程项目是典型的高风险大型复杂项目,施工安全风险事故多发且引发因素众多。为明确施工过程中存在的致险因素,为安全风险事故的预控提供依据,选取2002—2015年国内151例地铁施工安全风险事故报告,借助R语言和文本挖掘的方法,分别对事故报告进行分词处理、特征项选择、向量空间模型构建、共现规律识别,并利用词云和网络结构图等方法可视化文本挖掘结果;从中发现地铁施工安全风险事故的6项关键致险因素和23项一般致险因素,并以关键致险因素为基础构建致险因素集合,为地铁施工安全风险事故的预控提供参考。