公路隧道围岩稳定位移与突发失稳时间预报研究

从公路隧道开挖围岩变形位移历时曲线的特征出发,采用灰色Verhulst生物增长模型来预报其围岩变形的趋稳位移,用Verhulst反函数模型来预报围岩变形的突发失稳时间;实例研究结果表明,它们都具有较高的预报精度.     

低质量-阻尼因子圆柱体的涡激振动预报模型

本文考查了在均匀来流中作横向振荡的圆柱体与周围流体之间的能量转移,由此建立了基于受迫振荡实验数据的弹性支撑圆柱体在均匀流中的涡激振动响应预报模型.根据此模型,分析了低质量-阻尼因子圆柱体的涡激振动响应特性.就水中圆柱体涡激振动响应特性相关的几个关键性问题进行了深入的讨论,包括响应振幅的决定因素、附加质量对锁定范围及响应频率的影响.正确理解这些问题对于深水立管涡激振动响应的有效预报至关重要.     

黄土区公路沿线洞穴发育程度的层次预报模型

在黄土地区,黄土洞穴是造成公路损坏的主要原因。为研究黄土洞穴的发育规律,对陇西地区312国道沿线进行了重点调查和分析,阐述了黄土洞穴产生的主要影响因素,建立了该区黄土洞穴发育程度的分级标准,并利用层次分析原理建立了黄土洞穴发育程度的宏观地质条件预测模型,最后对预测结果进行了分析说明。     

日本城市轨道交通应用系统模式

简述了日本城市轨道交通系统的发展概况,介绍了该国的几种主要城市轨道交通模式,由此对中国的城市轨道交通模式选择提出了几点建议。     

Crash prediction model for two-lane rural highways in the Ashanti region of Ghana

Crash Prediction Models (CPMs) have been used elsewhere as a useful tool by road Engineers and Planners. There is however no study on the prediction of road traffic crashes on rural highways in Ghana. The main objective of the study was to develop a prediction model for road traffic crashes occurring on the rural sections of the highways in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. The model was developed for all injury crashes occurring on selected rural highways in the Region over the three (3) year period 2005–2007. Data was collected from 76 rural highway sections and each section varied between 0.8 km and 6.7 km. Data collected for each section comprised injury crash data, traffic flow and speed data, and roadway characteristics and road geometry data. The Generalised Linear Model (GLM) with Negative Binomial (NB) error structure was used to estimate the model parameters. Two types of models, the ‘core’ model which included key exposure variables only and the ‘full’ model which included a wider range of variables were developed. The results show that traffic flow, highway segment length, junction density, terrain type and presence of a village settlement within road segments were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables (p < 0.05) for crash involvement. Adding one junction to a 1 km section of road segment was found to increase injury crashes by 32.0% and sections which had a village settlement within them were found to increase injury crashes by 60.3% compared with segments with no settlements. The model explained 61.2% of the systematic variation in the data. Road and Traffic Engineers and Planners can apply the crash prediction model as a tool in safety improvement works and in the design of safer roads. It is recommended that to improve safety, highways should be designed to by-pass village settlements and that the number of junctions on a highway should be limited to carefully designed ones.     

瞬变电磁法对隧道含水不良地质体的探测规律

瞬变电磁法是一种对水体较为敏感的预报方法,为探索瞬变电磁法对探测隧道含水不良地质体的探测规律,通过现场大量瞬变电磁法探测实例,总结其对涌水通道、含水溶洞、含水裂隙的反应规律,以及后方低阻体对探测的干扰影响.结果表明,当探测前方存在含水通道时,视电阻率等值线会在其含水通道所在区域明显降低,且呈条带状分布,条带宽度与管道分...     

基于预防性养护的沥青混凝土路面使用性能预测模型研究

为了使路厩预防性养护措施选择与养护时机的确定更加合理.以沥青混凝土路面结构行为方程为基础建立了预防性养护前性能预测模型,并通过引入原路面有效厚度系数与养护措施特征系数建立了预防性养护后性能预测模型;进而简述了基于该模型的效益-费用分析法,应用该方法可以方便准确地确定最佳养护时机和养护措施.该文提出的基于预防性养护的沥青...     

基于优化灰色神经网络模型的内燃机气缸套磨损量预测的研究

气缸套磨损量是衡量汽车发动机寿命的重要因素。针对传统灰色预测模型的缺陷,采用均值修正策略,对样本数据进行预处理,实现灰色预测模型的优化;将灰色预测模型与BP网络相结合,建立了优化灰色神经网络预测模型;实例分析结果表明,优化模型能更精确地预测发动机气缸套的磨损量,为发动机的寿命预测与维修提供了更有效的方法。     

混合智能算法在城市道路短时交通流量预测中的研究

对城市道路短时交通流进行准确预测是实现城市交通控制与交通诱导的关键。针对目前单一预测方法预测精度不高的问题,提出了小波与支持向量机（SVM）融合的预测新方法;同时为了避免SVM知识学习过程陷入局部最优的问题,采用粒子群算法（PSO）来优化SVM的关键参数,以提高对短时交通流量的预测精度。通过对武汉市道路交通流数据的实验分析,结果表明所提出的方法能够准确提取实验数据关键特征,显著提高SVM的预测精度,且结果比单一使用方法提高了近9%。     

基于三维地形的道路虚拟视景构建方法

以道路交通仿真虚拟场景构建理论知识为基础,运用道路线形设计软件———纬地设计新建或改建道路线形,仿真建模软件Multigen-Creator提供的API函数实现道路主体仿真模型的构建,运用地形建模软件Terrain-Vista实现道路仿真模型与地形的无逢连接,虚拟场景驱动软件VSDesign实时显示道路设计参数并实现实时仿真,解决了各软件之间数据的通用问题。提出道路虚拟视景构建方法的技术路线。