波浪中破损船舶的运动响应研究

波浪中破损船舶的运动会同时受到波浪激励和进出水的影响,而船体运动也会影响进出水过程,二者的相互影响机理十分复杂.本文重点研究波浪中破舱进出水对船舶运动响应的影响,文中首先基于势流理论建立了考虑破舱进出水的4DOF(横荡-垂荡-横摇-纵摇)相互耦合时域预报方法,在计算中假设舱内的液面水平,利用修正的伯努利方程模拟破舱进/出水,利用Ikeda's经验公式修正阻尼系数.然后以一艘ITTC破损稳性标模为例,研究了波浪中考虑破舱进出水的数学模型以及破舱进出水对运动响应的影响,并研究了不同自由度、破舱口位置对运动响应的影响.研究表明,本文基于势流理论建立的时域预报方法可以定量的预报破损船舶的运动响应.     

船型参数对骑浪/横甩薄弱性衡准影响研究

骑浪/横甩是IMO船舶第二代完整稳性的五种失效模式之一,是一种基于概率的稳性衡准,制定规范的目的是更有效地保障船舶在实海域中的航行安全,确保不发生稳性失效情况.本研究中,以IMO有关成员国提出的最新版骑浪/横甩薄弱性衡准草案为基础,基于自主开发的骑浪/横甩薄弱性衡准校核软件,针对围网渔船开展了样船计算和比较分析,研究IMO正在制定的骑浪/横甩薄弱性衡准方法对该类船型的适用情况,分析船型参数对骑浪/横甩薄弱性衡准的影响,为我国参与国际法规制定,提出针对骑浪/横甩薄弱性衡准的提案提供技术支撑和依据.     

基于船模水池试验的船舶顺浪纯稳性损失计算扩展模式

船舶顺浪航行的纯稳性损失研究,已成为国际航海界和国际海事组织(IMO)关注的课题之一.在Ю.И.涅查耶夫根据28艘渔船和运输船船模水池试验的船舶顺浪纯稳性损失计算方法的基础上,提出了扩展模式,扩大了其适用范围,并给出了大长宽比(船长/船宽)舰艇纯稳性损失的算例,同时实现了该扩展模式的程序化,生成了实用化的软件.最后通过与CFD试验方法和一般理论计算法所得结果的对比,验证了该扩展模式计算结果的可信度.     

深海海山周围航船噪声建模与特性研究

本文以抛物方程模型为基础,结合声场的互易性,提出一种深海低频航船噪声建模方法,该方法将声源与接收点位置互换,大大降低了声场计算的运行次数和运行时间,基于该方法对深海海山周围的航船噪声进行计算和分析.研究结果表明:海山对声传播损失的影响取决于接收阵元与海山的位置关系以及海山的几何参数.由于海山的遮挡作用,海山附近航船噪声的水平指向性具有不均匀性,在有海山遮挡的方向噪声级明显低于无海山遮挡的方向,海山附近航船噪声的垂直指向性会出现多个峰值.此外,单个尖峰海山的遮挡对接收阵元处的航船噪声总级影响较小.     

Simulating ad-hoc demand-responsive transportation: a comparison of three approaches

Transport models are used to evaluate new infrastructure and public transport services, varied levels of demand, and new ideas for demand management. Exploring these proposals virtually is easier than implementation and testing in situ. However, existing models are based around traditional forms of transportation. As part of a feature analysis using a case study approach, three different simulation packages (a simple custom-developed package, traffic microsimulation, and agent-based simulation) are used to develop and demonstrate simulations of demand-responsive transportation (DRT) and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of each simulation approach for evaluating DRT. While the simulations display some relational replication (meaning they produce similar relational patterns with respect to certain variables), they do not show distributional replication (that is, the value of the results is not statistically similar), meaning that under- or over-estimation of predicted travel could occur. Recommendations for the application of each modeling approach are made.     

The Bid-rent Land Use Model of the simple,efficient, elegant,and effective model of land use and transportation

Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. The financial, time, and staff requirements to develop these models has put them beyond the reach of most small to medium sized urban areas. This paper presents the land use allocation submodel of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective model of land use and transportation (SE³M), an integrated land use and transportation forecasting model founded upon Economic Base Theory and Bid-rent Theory. The Bid-rent Land Use Model (BLUM) is an agent based, spatial competition model utilizing unique utility curves for willingness to pay and incomes for budget constrained abilities to pay for each agent. The model structure, estimation, calibration, implementation, and validation are presented. With a single year of land use data available, the validation approach used the Kappa Index of Agreement to spatially check model outputs against base year control data while controlling for agreement by chance. The U.S. territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. Once calibrated, BLUM could solve the spatial competition problem on Guam in less than two minutes of processing time with over 90% accuracy.     

Assessing the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk using microscopic data and surrogate safety measures

Due to the difficulty of obtaining accurate real-time visibility and vehicle based traffic data at the same time, there are only few research studies that addressed the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk. This research was conducted based on a new visibility detection system by mounting visibility sensor arrays combined with adaptive learning modules to provide more accurate visibility detections. The vehicle-based detector, Wavetronix SmartSensor HD, was installed at the same place to collect traffic data. Reduced visibility due to fog were selected and analyzed by comparing them with clear cases to identify the differences based on several surrogate measures of safety under different visibility classes. Moreover, vehicles were divided into different types and the vehicles in different lanes were compared in order to identify whether the impact of reduced visibility due to fog on traffic crash risk varies depending on vehicle types and lanes. Log-Inverse Gaussian regression modeling was then applied to explore the relationship between time to collision and visibility together with other traffic parameters. Based on the accurate visibility and traffic data collected by the new visibility and traffic detection system, it was concluded that reduced visibility would significantly increase the traffic crash risk especially rear-end crashes and the impact on crash risk was different for different vehicle types and for different lanes. The results would be helpful to understand the change in traffic crash risk and crash contributing factors under fog conditions. We suggest implementing the algorithms in real-time and augmenting it with ITS measures such as VSL and DMS to reduce crash risk.     

Direct formulation and algorithms for the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment problem

This paper proposes simple and direct formulation and algorithms for the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment problem. It is only necessary to account for random variables independent of link flows by performing a simple transformation of the perceived link travel time with a normal distribution. At every iteration of a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure, the values of the random variables are sampled based on their probability distributions, and then a regular deterministic user equilibrium assignment is carried out to produce link flows. The link flows produced at each iteration of the Monte-Carlo simulation are averaged to yield the final flow pattern. Two test networks demonstrate that the proposed algorithms and the traditional algorithm (the Method of Successive Averages) produce similar results and that the proposed algorithms can be extended to the computation of the case in which the random error term depends on measured travel time.     

Impact of regional population density on walking behavior

Land use can influence walking (measured by the number of steps) and so the health of people. This paper presents the result of empirical research on the impact of regional population densities (inhabitants per inhabitable area) on the number of steps (all steps, both outdoors and indoors). With data collected from almost 11,000 respondents in 148 Japanese regions, we estimate polynomial regression models, the total number of steps being the dependent variable and densities being the main independent variable. Regional population density significantly affects the number of steps after controlling for individual and household attributes. The estimated population density that maximizes the number of steps is around 11,000?persons/km². Increasing densities, up to levels of around 11,000?inhabitants/km², could increase walking and consequently the health of inhabitants. The population density elasticity of the number of steps is 0.046–0.049 in a simple log linear regression model without a peak.     

利用SPS模拟川气东送管道压气站失效问题

为研究压气站失效与单台机组失效对输气管道的影响程度,采用SPS软件对压气站失效和单台机组失效进行了详细模拟。模拟结果显示:压气站失效与单台机组失效相比对管输系统影响较大;对于压气站失效,越靠近末站的压气站失效对管输系统影响越大;对于单台机组失效,越靠近首站的压缩机失效对管输系统影响越大。分析结果可为事故状态下的供气和抢修提供参考。