A zonal inference model based on observed smart-card transactions for Santiago de Chile

The collection of origin–destination data for a city is an important but often costly task. This way, there is a need to develop more efficient and inexpensive methods of collecting information about citizens’ travel patterns. In this line, this paper presents a generic methodology that allows to infer the origin and destination zones for an observed trip between two public transport stops (i.e., bus stops or metro stations) using socio-economic, land use, and network information. The proposed zonal inference model follows a disaggregated Logit approach including size variables. The model enables the estimation of a zonal origin–destination matrix for a city, if trip information passively collected by a smart-card payment system is available (in form of a stop-to-stop matrix). The methodology is applied to the Santiago de Chile’s morning peak period, with the purpose of serving as input for a public transport planning computational tool. To estimate the model, information was gathered from different sources and processed into a unified framework; data included a survey conducted at public transport stops, land use information, and a stop-to-stop trip matrix. Additionally, a zonal system with 1176 zones was constructed for the city, including the definition of its access links and associated distances. Our results shows that, ceteris paribus, zones with high numbers of housing units have higher probabilities of being the origin of a morning peak trip. Likewise, health facilities, educational, residential, commercial, and offices centres have significant attraction powers during this period. In this sense, our model manages to capture the expected effects of land use on trip generation and attraction. This study has numerous policy implications, as the information obtained can be used to predict the impacts of changes in the public transport network (such as extending routes, relocating their stops, designing new routes or changing the fare structure). Further research is needed to improve the zonal inference formulation and origin–destination matrix estimation, mainly by including better cost measures, and dealing with survey and data limitations.     

一种基质沥青快速升温装置的研制

现代交通的发展和道路等级的提高,对路用沥青的性能提出了更高的要求。在沥青中加入SBS、PE和橡胶粉等添加剂以改善基质沥青性能的方法得到了越来越广泛的应用,但改性沥青制作工艺对基质沥青的工作温度有严格的要求。探讨基质沥青的快速加热工艺和相关专用设备的研发是保证改性沥青制作质量的关键之一。     

心理因素影响下游客节假日错峰旅游出行行为研究

错峰出行是解决出行时间集中引起交通拥堵问题的重要措施. 本文以节假日游客错峰出行行为为研究对象，探究心理潜变量对其错峰出行意向及行为的影响机理. 基于计划行为理论，同时考虑节假日旅游满意度，构建节假日游客错峰旅游出行行为的结构方程模型. 定量研究了态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制、节假日旅游满意度4 个心理因素对游客节假日错峰旅游行为意向及行为的影响. 最后通过问卷调查数据进行了实例分析. 研究结果表明，4 个潜在变量对节假日错峰旅游出行行为意向具有显著影响，其中知觉行为控制是关键因素且影响最大，节假日旅游满意度对节假日错峰出行行为意向及行为有显著负向影响. 本研究可为节假日游客错峰旅游出行措施的制定提供参考依据.     

非时齐马氏链转移矩阵的性质

对非时齐马氏链转移矩阵的分析性质进行了讨论起因于非时齐马氏链广泛应用于随机控制和奇异摄动.得到了转移矩阵的一些连续性性质,特别是对Q-矩阵函数的概率意义进行了详细讨论,得到了在一状态停留的时间服从一指数分布,从一状态跳到另一状态的概率等较完整的结果,最后还给出一个Q-矩阵函数有界的充要条件.     

船舶设计过程中的变更管理

介绍船舶设计过程中项目管理新的组织模式:矩阵式组织,对新模式下船舶设计管理过程涉及的主要项目管理领域如:范围管理、进度管理、人力资源管理、沟通管理及其变更管理进行分析和论述.     

Nonlinear feedforward–feedback control of clutch-to-clutch shift technique

To improve the shift quality of the vehicle with clutch-to-clutch gear shifts, a nonlinear feedforward–feedback control scheme is proposed for clutch slip control during the shift inertia phase. The feedforward control is designed based on flatness in consideration of the system nonlinearities, and the linear feedback control is given to accommodate the model errors and the disturbances. Lookup tables, which are widely used to represent complex nonlinear characteristics of powertrain systems, appear in their original form in the designed feedforward controller, while the linear feedback controller is calculated through linear matrix inequalities such that the control system is robust against the parameter uncertainties. Finally, the designed controller is tested on an AMESim powertrain simulation model, which contains a time-variant model of clutch actuators.     

大功率变流技术与应用（三）——矩阵变流器

矩阵变流器是强迫换相的PWM交-交直接变流器，即是直接的、完全对称的多相输入-多相输出网络，由电力电子开关组成，没有笨重的电感器和电容器。其优点是，输入电流为正弦形的，且功率因数高，双向功率流，不产生亚谐波分量。这种变流器满足电机调速、节能和电能质量管理对变流器所期望的电性能。文章系统地描述了矩阵变流器的原理、换流、调制，并介绍减少了开关器件的稀疏和超稀疏矩阵变流器。     

船舶危险品运输的风险分析

船舶危险品安全运输是船舶运输安全的重要方面。它既取决于船上危险品本身的安全，又取决于船舶的航行安全。风险分析就是在识别其本身和船舶航行两个方面存在的潜在危险即风险源的基础上，通过定性、半定量或定量的分析方法，分析这些危险可能导致的后果和这些后果发生的可能性，从而得到相应的风险水平。文中在介绍风险分析的步骤和方法的基础上，阐述了适用于船舶危险品运输的风险分析方法。     

δ—Al2O3f／Al合金基复合材料的强度研究

对挤压铸造法制得的δ－Ａｌ２Ｏ３ｆ／Ａｌ合金基复合材料，测量其短纤维地位向分布，导出了一个位向分布密度函数。在此基础上考虑在体抗拉强度高低和不同界面结合的影响，对复合材料的拉伸强度进行了预测，预测结果和实测值符合较好     

基于高次最小二乘原理的连续刚构桥挠曲线拟合分析

为充分利用连续刚构桥桥梁健康监测系统中有限数量位移传感器,提出一种基于高次最小二乘原理的数值拟合方法,用有限测点信息有效拟合全桥的挠曲线方程。以某连续刚构桥为实际算例,全桥挠曲线拟合分析结果表明:该方法拟合连续刚构桥挠曲线方法简单、思路清晰,有利于工程实践;在边跨和中跨的拟合值与实测值的最大相对误差均小于5%,用高次最小二乘原理拟合连续刚构桥挠曲线具有足够精度。