Detailed assessment of global transport-energy models’ structures and projections

This paper focuses on comparing the frameworks and projections from four global transportation models with considerable technology details. We analyze and compare the modeling frameworks, underlying data, assumptions, intermediate parameters, and projections to identify the sources of divergence or consistency, as well as key knowledge gaps. We find that there are significant differences in the base-year data and key parameters for future projections, especially for developing countries. These include passenger and freight activity, mode shares, vehicle ownership rates, and energy consumption by mode, particularly for shipping, aviation and trucking. This may be due in part to a lack of previous efforts to do such consistency-checking and “bench-marking.” We find that the four models differ in terms of the relative roles of various mitigation strategies to achieve a 2 °C/450 ppm target: the economics-based integrated assessment models favor the use of low carbon fuels as the primary mitigation option followed by efficiency improvements, whereas transport-only and expert-based models favor efficiency improvements of vehicles followed by mode shifts. We offer recommendations for future modeling improvements focusing on (1) reducing data gaps; (2) translating the findings from this study into relevant policy implications such as gaps of current policy goals, additional policy targets needed, regional vs. global reductions; (3) modeling strata of demographic groups to improve understanding of vehicle ownership levels, travel behavior, and urban vs. rural considerations; and (4) conducting coordinated efforts in aligning historical data, and comparing input assumptions and results of policy analysis and modeling insights.     

华北二叠系泥岩隧道灾变机理及控制研究

针对太岳山隧道穿越华北二叠系紫红色泥岩段施工过程中发生的影响工程进度的地质灾害问题,对太岳山泥质岩隧道存在的地质灾害的关键性致灾因子以及其相互作用进行了理论分析,结合现场施工状况及工程处治实践,对支护措施选取及效果进行评价.研究结果表明,泥岩隧道存在四大主要致灾因子,分别为地质因子、岩体结构性质因子、水文因子以及施工因...     

高墩桥梁地震响应分析

近年来,高墩桥梁越来越多地在西部强震地区被采用,并且多采用简支梁桥、连续梁桥和刚构桥。对具有高墩的某桥梁工程进行高墩桥梁抗震性能分析,研究高墩动力特性和地震响应特点。并通过适当的改变结构形式降低桥墩的地震响应,达到较好的减震效果,可为高墩桥梁的建设和抗震设计提供参考。     

黏滞性阻尼器对千米级斜拉桥纵向减震效果的振动台试验研究

为了研究千米级斜拉桥纵向采用黏滞性阻尼器的减震效果,以一座主跨1 088 m的斜拉桥为工程背景,按相似理论设计制作了一座几何缩尺比为1：35的全桥振动台试验模型,通过改变塔梁间的连接方式,建立了塔梁间纵向无约束的非减震体系和塔梁间纵向采用黏滞性阻尼器的减震体系,选用4条具有代表性的地震动进行了4个振动台纵向一致激励的全桥振动台试验,然后将不同地震动输入下2种体系的试验结果进行对比分析。试验结果表明：千米级斜拉桥纵向无约束体系的地震响应受输入地震动的特性影响较大,对于长周期成分丰富,特别是对应于结构一阶周期的加速度谱和位移谱谱值较大的地震动,结构的地震响应较大;千米级斜拉桥非减震体系的地震响应同样也受输入地震动特性的影响较大;纵向采用黏滞性阻尼器的减震体系可以减小结构的梁端位移、塔顶位移以及塔底钢筋应变,但输入地震动的特性会影响黏滞性阻尼器的减震效果,对于特征周期较长、长周期成分丰富的地震动,黏滞性阻尼器的减震效果较好,而对于有明显速度脉冲的地震动,黏滞性阻尼器的减震效果相对较差,当地震动峰值加速度PGA为0.4g时,在场地人工地震动、Loma Prieta地震动作用下,梁端最大位移分别减小了62.41%、37.75%;对于有明显速度脉冲的地震动,需要选择阻尼系数更大的黏滞性阻尼器。     

临河黄河大桥主桥设计关键技术

临河黄河大桥处在严寒、高烈度场地条件下的地区,经研究确定该桥主桥采用一联（59．7＋11×100＋59．7） m 的超长联大跨连续梁桥,桥宽12 m ,梁体为单箱单室变截面箱梁,墩身为实体墩,主墩基础为钻孔灌注桩基础。设计过程中形成了超长联大跨连续梁桥减隔震设计、合龙工艺等成套关键技术：桥墩上设置大吨位双曲面球型摩擦摆隔震支座和柱面摩擦摆隔震支座,基桩上采用永久性抗震钢护筒,利用零弯矩理论指导合龙工序设计等。该套技术解决了超长联大跨连续梁桥抗震、长联施工等关键技术问题,减少了工程投资。     

大跨度中承式钢桁拱桥抗震性能分析

为研究大跨度中承式钢桁拱桥在地震作用下的地震响应以及减隔震措施,以主跨436 m的中承式钢桁拱桥——广州明珠湾大桥为背景,利用MIDAS Civil软件建立主桥空间有限元模型,采用反应谱法计算罕遇地震作用下的地震响应并进行抗震性能分析;选择双曲面球型减隔震支座作为减隔震措施,采用非线性时程分析方法计算罕遇地震作用下的地震响应,对比设置减隔震措施前、后抗震性能进行减隔震效果评估。结果表明:该桥自振基本周期长,罕遇地震作用下结构动力响应较大,桥墩桩基不能满足抗震性能要求;设置双曲面球型减隔震支座后,各向地震作用下大部分结构的内力响应均明显减小,其中桩基安全系数提高66%,改善了大跨度中承式钢桁拱桥的抗震性能,结构满足抗震要求。     

综合管廊抗震分析研究进展综述

针对目前城市综合管廊建设方兴未艾、抗震防灾需求日益凸显的现状，总结评述目前综合管廊抗震分析的研究进展。首先，归纳总结综合管廊结构的震害特点和关键影响因素，并在此基础上对国内外综合管廊抗震研究的发展历程和重要突破进行综述；然后，重点从影响综合管廊地震响应机制的关键要素出发，即从输入地震动特征、工程场地特性、管廊结构形式与构造特点3个方面对综合管廊抗震研究现状以及存在的不足之处进行综述；最后，对综合管廊减隔震研究现状进行讨论。研究表明： 1)输入地震动特征会对综合管廊地震响应产生显著影响，对于浅埋结构还应关注地表Rayleigh波的作用； 2)工程场地特性研究聚焦在饱和液化地层、断层破碎带等不利场地条件对综合管廊结构地震响应的影响机制方面； 3)新型管廊结构形式和节点构造层出不穷，但目前的研究工作主要关注管廊结构自身的地震响应特征。建议后续研究重视综合管廊功能性对抗震安全性的需求，进一步加强“结构-功能”一体化抗震性能设计方法与指标体系的研究工作。     

Remuneration models and revenue risk mitigation in road public–private partnership projects – a case study from Serbia

As a consequence of renewed interest in attracting private financing for infrastructure investments, public–private partnership (PPP) arrangements are mostly seen as a suitable mechanism for ensuring sound and quicker delivery of transport infrastructure projects. However, a general concern is that expectations of mobilizing private-sector funds have been overestimated in a number of cases. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the risk analysis of transport PPP projects with substantial exogenous demand risk which could serve as a rationale for choosing the appropriate PPP model. The objective of this paper is to construct an analytical cash flow-based project model to facilitate the choice of the remuneration mechanism suitable for both private investors and public sector. The model provides an indication whether the project should be implemented as a ‘users pay’, a hybrid or an ‘annuity’ PPP model. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a case study from Serbia.     

Exploring the trade-off between greenhouse gas emissions and travel time in daily travel decisions: Route and departure time choices

This study analyzes the problem of conflicting travel time and emissions minimization in context of daily travel decisions. The conflict occurs because the least travel time option does not always lead to least emissions for the trip. Experiments are designed and conducted to collect data on daily trips. Random parameter (mixed) logit models accounting for correlations among repeated observations are estimated to find the trade-off between emissions and travel time. Our results show that the trade-off values vary with contexts such as route and departure time choice scenarios. Further, we find that the trade-off values are different for population groups representing male, female, individuals from high income households, and individuals who prefer bike for daily commute. Based on the findings, several policies are proposed that can help to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation networks. This is one of the first exploratory studies that analyzes travel decisions and the corresponding trade-off when emissions related information are provided to the road users.     

滑坡堰塞湖危险性预测与铁路减灾策略

我国铁路已开始向滑坡堵江高危险区延伸,滑坡堰塞湖灾害链成为在选线设计阶段就应该防控的风险源。提出一套堵江危险性评估作业程式,以及各环节建议采用的理论公式。在此基础上以拟建的川藏铁路德沙滑坡为例,首先利用ANSYS有限元软件、FLAC3D三维有限差分软件建立三维滑坡模型,分析滑坡稳定性;然后利用经验公式计算大震情况下可能堵江的预测结论;最后预估堰塞湖影响范围,据此提出线路工程减灾对策。不仅可为研究区线位设计和重大工程布设提供参考,并希望通过范例性研究,推动山区铁路灾害链减灾技术的发展。