基于随机森林结合前向序列选择算法的铁路隧道防水板检测数据关键影响因素识别北大核心

针对参数特征复杂度高的铁路产品,提出了一种基于随机森林(RF)结合前向序列选择(SFS)算法的铁路产品检验检测数据关键影响因素识别方法,以辅助基于经验的识别方法。创新使用RF-SFS算法,将其应用于铁路隧道防水板检验检测数据关键影响因素的识别研究。根据多年铁路隧道防水板检测数据,建立RF模型,获得了影响铁路隧道防水板检测结果的特征关键性评分序列。随后,结合SFS方法得出关键性评分序列的阈值,将排名前6位的影响因素识别为关键特征,模型的预测能力达到99.98%。为验证关键特征识别方法的有效性,对比分析3种模型在使用不同特征子集时的预测能力。当仅选用关键特征时,3种模型的预测能力均达到最佳,加入冗余特征后模型的预测能力逐渐降低。     

多类型信息下的网络交通流演化模型

交通信息发布机构提供描述信息和规范信息给不同的出行者，描述信息接收者依据信息和经验更新路径行程时间认知，根据认知选择路径；规范信息接收者仅根据经验更新认知.规范信息遵从者选择推荐路径，非遵从者依据认知选择路径.两类信息遵从率都取决于信息准确度.依据非线性动力学理论分析了模型性质，研究表明，模型不动点存在但是不一定唯一，不动点状态与信息混合使用情况有关.数值试验结果表明，模型不动点与随机用户均衡点不同，以恰当比例混合使用两类信息可提高交通流稳定性.     

The uplift capacity of single-plate helical pile in shallow dense sand including the influence of installation

The helical pile has been used to resist the tension for a long time. However, the prediction of the uplift capacity of helical piles including the influence of installation is still a challenge in design. Based on the change in stress according to Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, a simple theoretical method has been developed, which can calculate the uplift capacity of shallow pre-embedded circular plate anchors and the uplift capacity of helical piles installed by torque and compression. In order to analyse the influence of installation process of a single-plate helical pile on its uplift capacity and verify the theoretical model, a series of model tests have been conducted in dense saturated sand. The single-plate helical piles with different out diameters of helixes have been installed with different installation speeds, and then, the single-plate helical piles have been moved up monotonically. The test results show that the installation speed and the size of the out diameter of the helix have significant influence on the uplift capacity of the helical piles, and the results of the theoretical method have a good fit with the test results. Using this simple theoretical method, the designer can easily predict the uplift capacities of helical piles, which includes the influence of installation.     

基于可靠性方框图与蒙特卡洛仿真的船舶配电网可靠性分析方法

国船舶工业发展迅速,尤其在近几年迎来了跨越式的发展。船舶建设工业的发展能充分体现一个国家的经济和国防建设水平。但船舶配电网拓扑结构与陆上电网不尽相同,其运行环境非常恶劣,供电连续性和可靠性成为衡量船舶生命力的重要指标,同时也深刻影响大型船舶的平均寿命。因此,可靠性研究在船舶建设中发挥着越来越重要的作用。本研究以典型大型船舶中压配电网结构为研究对象,在全系统元件正常运行时相互独立的情况下,重点研究不可维修与可维修下的系统可靠度、MTBF、可用度、停运时间和失效数等,并进行详细的分析与讨论。首先,本文综合考察各种可靠性分析方法的适用性和准确性,选择利用可靠性框图、最小路集分析法计算并分析不可维修情况下系统的可靠度、平均故障间隔时间等可靠性指标；接着,本文简述了配电网的多种维修任务类型,并采用最小路集法与蒙特卡洛仿真法相结合的方法计算并分析可维修系统的可用度、停电时间、失效数等指标。本文研究结果对船舶配电网的设计、建造、运行和维修等具有积极的意义。     

Costs of air pollutants from shipping: a meta-regression analysis

ABSTRACT

This study estimated the external cost of air pollution from shipping by means of a meta-regression analysis, which has not been made before. Three pollutants, which were included in most of the primary studies, were considered: nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur dioxides (SO₂) and particulate matters with a diameter of max 2.5 micrometres (PM_2.5). All primary studies included damages of health and a majority added impacts on agriculture and estimated the cost of air pollutants by transferring cost estimates from studies on costs of air emissions from transports in Europe. Different regression models and estimators were used and robust results were found of statistically significant emission elasticities of below one, i.e. total external costs increase by less than 1% when emissions increase by 1%. There was a small variation between the pollutants, with the highest elasticity for PM_2.5 and lowest for NO_x. Calculations of the marginal external cost of the pollutants showed the same pattern, with this cost being approximately six times higher for PM_2.5 than for the other pollutants. Common to all pollutants was that the marginal external cost decreases when emission increases. Another robust result was a significant increase in the cost of studies published in journals compared with other publication outlets. These findings point out some caution when transferring constant external unit cost of air pollutant from shipping, which is much applied in the literature, and the cost functions estimated in this study could thus provide a complementary transfer mechanism.     

海洋核动力平台全频段舱室噪声预报与降噪方案研究

随着新规范对船舶及海上工作平台提出了更高要求，舱室噪声的控制及优化设计越来越受到人们的关注。本文首先对全频段舱室噪声预报软件——VA One软件统计能量分析理论及软件概况进行了阐述，其次应用该软件对海洋核动力平台进行几何建模与仿真计算。通过对舱室仿真计算结果与标准指标要求的对比分析，在设计阶段提出了海洋核动力平台舱室空气噪声综合治理降噪方案，该措施可以缩短建造周期、降低制造成本，提高海洋核动力平台的舒适性与安全性，具有十分重要的经济效益和社会效益。     

A signal decomposition method based on repeated extraction of maximum energy component for offshore structures

Contrary to most signal decomposition methods that usually decompose an original signal into a series of components simultaneously, a novel approach based on repeated extraction of Maximum Energy Component (MEC) is proposed. The approach starts from determination of the MEC referring to the estimated Power Spectral Density (PSD) function, and then represents the MEC by employing an exponential function to fit the original signal. By defining a stopping criterion based on two adjacent estimated PSDs, each MEC can be accurately extracted with an improved performance throughout the entire signal decomposition. To verify the proposed method, a single degree-of-freedom system subject to harmonic loads has been examined. Numerical results show that the analytical response can not only be decomposed into four MECs corresponding to the excitation and the system, respectively, but also provide an accurate estimation of natural frequency and damping ratio of the system. Meanwhile, by observing results from the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and Prony based on state-space model (Prony-SS), an improved decomposition accuracy has been achieved from the proposed approach. Furthermore, experimental data from the Norwegian Deepwater Programme and two sets of field-test data from one fixed offshore platform and an offshore wind turbine have been used to demonstrate the correctness of the developed signal decomposition method. It is noted that divergence in results by Prony-SS can be observed when a very large model order is used, while the proposed method provides the better decomposition and reconstruction of signals.     

现代城市社区物业管理服务创新模式研究

物业管理作为一个新型的服务行业,近年来随着城市化迅猛建设而呈现高速发展的态势,对现代城市物业管理服务现有的模式进行分析,探索物业管理服务模式的特点,发现其中的问题所在,进一步挖掘物业管理服务企业在各方面多元的服务潜力,物业管理服务企业与业主共同协作延伸增值服务空间,缓解双方之间的矛盾,促进物业管理服务的发展。     

半潜式支持平台靠泊海洋生产平台碰撞概率建模

为有效解决深水半潜式支持平台靠泊海洋生产平台过程中存在的碰撞问题,从碰撞事故发生原因入手,借鉴挪威船级社(Det Norske Veritas,DNV)DNV-RP-107规范中的船与海洋平台碰撞概率模型和美国公路与运输协会(American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials,AASHTO)《美国公路桥梁防船撞设计指南》中的船桥碰撞概率模型,将支持平台发生向前的过分偏移引起的碰撞场景分为漂移碰撞和动力碰撞2种,建立事件树,得到支持平台靠泊海洋生产平台碰撞概率模型。在此基础上,估算支持平台靠泊碰撞海洋生产平台的概率,由此评估碰撞风险,为半潜式支持平台靠泊碰撞海洋生产平台场景下的相关规范制定提供参考。