Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

铁路牵引供电系统安全防护与优化技术方案硏究

为了提高铁路牵引供电系统安全防护等级,加强防范强电侵入的能力,减少雷击事故对铁路运输以及设备维护造成的经济损失,本文分析了牵引变电所常见的强电侵入类型及途径,针对现有问题逐一提出了优化技术方案,并阐述了研究思路及方案具体实施方法。     

现代城市社区物业管理服务创新模式研究

物业管理作为一个新型的服务行业,近年来随着城市化迅猛建设而呈现高速发展的态势,对现代城市物业管理服务现有的模式进行分析,探索物业管理服务模式的特点,发现其中的问题所在,进一步挖掘物业管理服务企业在各方面多元的服务潜力,物业管理服务企业与业主共同协作延伸增值服务空间,缓解双方之间的矛盾,促进物业管理服务的发展。     

基于Cognex视觉的机器人自动搬运控制

针对企业原有生产圆盘类连接轴的工艺,设计了基于Cognex视觉的机器人自动搬运系统,将S7-300 PLC、Cognex视觉系统和FANUC机器人系统集成在一起,实现了1台机器人同时为铣床和车床2个加工系统自动上下料;通过Profibus总线和Ethernet通讯将PLC技术、视觉技术与工业机器人结合起来,发挥了工业以太网传输速度快、信号稳定的优势,提高了机器人的柔性取料能力;目前已应用在企业当中,提高了企业的自动化程度及生产效率,降低了企业的用工支出。     

半潜式支持平台靠泊海洋生产平台碰撞概率建模

为有效解决深水半潜式支持平台靠泊海洋生产平台过程中存在的碰撞问题,从碰撞事故发生原因入手,借鉴挪威船级社(Det Norske Veritas,DNV)DNV-RP-107规范中的船与海洋平台碰撞概率模型和美国公路与运输协会(American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials,AASHTO)《美国公路桥梁防船撞设计指南》中的船桥碰撞概率模型,将支持平台发生向前的过分偏移引起的碰撞场景分为漂移碰撞和动力碰撞2种,建立事件树,得到支持平台靠泊海洋生产平台碰撞概率模型。在此基础上,估算支持平台靠泊碰撞海洋生产平台的概率,由此评估碰撞风险,为半潜式支持平台靠泊碰撞海洋生产平台场景下的相关规范制定提供参考。     

A new solution for two-bag air suspension system with leaf spring for heavy-duty vehicle

The design problem of a two-bag air suspension system for heavy-duty vehicles is formulated as a two-level (suspension system level and component level) optimization problem. At the suspension system level, optimal stiffness matrix of leaf spring, characteristics of damper and upper rod layout are determined by solving a multi-objective constrained optimization problem with response surface. At the component level, shape and thickness of the leaf spring are formed using cubic-spline curves to make the stiffness matrix as close to the target values cascaded from suspension system level as possible. Simulations using a vehicle model described by multi-body model and FEM of the novel leaf spring validate the suspension system thus derived.     

半约束模型试验--一种验证随浪和斜浪中波浪力计算的手段

本文采用半约束模型试验技术，对一条高速船在规则波中随浪和斜浪工况进行了流体动力系列试验，以探讨航运的安全性，验证作用于船体上波浪力的估算方法。对每次试验，以波动方程的形式采用数值估算方法确定环绕船模的波浪运动的时间历程。并用同样的方法从测量数据中提取垂荡和纵摇与模型测量运动，一阶波导纵荡、横荡作用力和首摇力矩。因此合理比较理论计算的波浪力与力矩的时间历程成为可能。这表明SSPA海事动力学的研究所(MDL)模型试验设施可以提供高质量的测量，与所述计算方法结合起来可用来验证理论计算和建立半经验方法。     

水深平均k—ε紊流模型在大尺度水域中的应用研究

本文利用Patanker求解紊动输运方程标准的SIMPLEC计算程式,对小尺度丁坝绕流进行了模拟计算,取得了与水槽试验一致的流速分布结果。为了探讨大尺度水域紊动量K、ε壁面边界条件的给定,本文将水槽看成是一种比尺模型,将水槽试验流速分布按重力相似和阻力相似准则延伸到大尺度水域,并以此研究k—ε模型模拟大尺度回流的置信水平。计算结果表明通过选择合适的紊动量壁面边界条件,该模型对大尺度回流计算也能取得较好的结果。     

整治建筑物壅水及重力相似偏离影响的初步研究

简述整治建筑物的壅水及其机理,归纳出局部水头损失壅水的通用公式。将丁坝工程壅水区分为床面摩阻损失增大壅水和局部水头损失壅水2部分。在ΔFr>0的模型中,采用换算式ΔZp=ΔZm.hλ,定性地说是偏大的。可采用换算式Δhfp=Δhfmhλ。而丁、潜坝局部水头损失的壅水,则应采用hjp=Δhjmλu02。     

几种常见形式的等效阶梯截面

针对许多平面杆系桥梁分析软件仅提供梯形分块法的截面尺寸输入方式和截面几何特性已知或者有解析表达式的带有曲边的截面不便直接使用梯形分块法的问题，利用桥梁结构平面计算中截面等效的概念．提出了等效算法，构造了节线数不多于6的等效阶梯截面，推导了等效阶梯截面几何要素的一般计算公式．给出了圆形、圆环等几种常用截面形式的不多于6条节线等效阶梯截面尺寸计算的具体而又简捷的公式。