一种基于动态分析的突变和异常波动预警方法

针对模拟量的突变和异常波动预警,给出一种基于动态分析的、可以应用于各种模拟量的统一预警方法,该方法已被应用于CSM-TH型集中监测程序和智能分析系统中,在多条线700余站现场运行的7年中,收到良好效果,得到用户认可。     

Extreme hawser tension assessment for FPSO vessel during offloading operation in Bohai bay

The Floating Production Storage and Offloading Unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport.Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during offloading operations, posing an operational risk. In this paper, AQWA has been used to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions. Experimental validation of numerical results has been discussed as well.This paper advocates methodology for estimating extreme response statistics, based on simulations (or measurements). The modified ACER (averaged conditional exceedance rate) method is presented in brief detail. Proposed methodology provides an accurate extreme value prediction, utilizing all available data efficiently. In this study the estimated return level values, obtained by ACER method, are compared to the corresponding return level values obtained by Gumbel method. Based on the overall performance of the proposed method, it is concluded that the improved ACER method can provide more robust and accurate prediction of the extreme hawser tension.Data declustering issue has been addressed. Paper highlights ability of ACER method to account for a set of varying sea state probabilities, as required in engineering long term statistical analysis.Described approach may be well used at the vessel design stage, while defining optimal vessel parameters that would minimize potential FPSO hawser tension.     

共享停车泊位数量可变下交通流逐日演化规律

为了揭示在共享停车泊位数量可变条件下的网络交通流逐日演化规律,首先构建了共享泊位交易系统,并考虑了交易市场中的共享泊位提供者可以选择2种异质性的价格预期方式,即理性预期方式和幼稚预期方式;而后对共享泊位的均衡价格、2种提供者的占比差、高峰时段公交和小汽车需求的演化规律进行了分析;其次,以2条平行路径的路网为例,对网络交通流量分配的最终演化结果进行了分析;最后,在对上述2个系统的最终演化状态给出定量判据后,以北京市实际路网为例进行了数值试验。理论分析和数值试验结果表明:①对于共享泊位交易系统,若供给曲线斜率小于需求曲线斜率,则共享泊位交易系统的唯一均衡解可实现无条件渐进稳定;否则若理性提供者的交易与预测成本之和大于幼稚提供者,则存在临界提供者选择强度,使得共享泊位交易系统在大于此临界值条件下出现分岔或混沌现象;②对于网络交通流系统,若出行成本对路径流量敏感度小,路径选择概率对出行成本敏感度小,小汽车需求量不大,则系统唯一的均衡解可能是渐进稳定的,否则系统会出现分岔或混沌状态;③当共享泊位交易系统处于渐进稳定状态时,若提供者对共享泊位的价格变动不敏感,用户对其价格变动敏感,潜在共享泊位需求量不大,理性提供者的交易与预测成本之和并非远大于幼稚提供者,提供者选择强度不大,则由于受到共享泊位交易总量的限制,高峰时段的均衡小汽车需求不大,导致网络交通流系统的最终演化状态容易趋向于渐进稳定;④当共享泊位交易系统处于混沌状态时,网络交通流系统会产生更加严重的分岔与混沌现象。     

新建本科院校市场营销专业模块化教学改革——基于岗位和能力导向的应用技术人才培养

通过行业论证和企业调查,明确市场营销职业岗位类别设置及特征,掌握这些职业岗位对应用技术性本科学生知识、能力和素质等方面的现实需求,通过问卷调查本校市场营销专业学生对专业教学的现状及建议,参考广东部分新建本科院校的做法,建立市场营销专业的岗位需求、工作内容、职业能力、模块教学和任务学习为一体的教学模式。     

Evaluating determinants of attractiveness and their cause-effect relationships for container ports in Taiwan: users’ perspectives

The attractiveness of ports is usually a pre-requisite and necessary condition for ports to achieve competitiveness, as well as the springboard to explore the competitive advantages of ports. To determine whether a port is competitive, it is necessary to explore whether it boasts certain factors that make the port attractive to users. The main purpose of this article is to apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique to evaluate key determinants of attractiveness and their cause/effect relationships for container ports in Taiwan. The empirical results showed that: (1) Top six determinates of attractiveness for container ports are ‘ample cargo sources,’ ‘favorable port charges,’ ‘dense ship network and routes,’ ‘low transshipment costs,’ ‘efficient wharf operations,’ and ‘adequate wharfs and back-line land,’ respectively. (2) Among the above six determinants of attractiveness, ‘ample cargo sources’ is the cause determinant. Three determinants of port attractiveness, ‘favorable port charges,’ ‘dense ship network and routes,’ ‘low transshipment costs,’ which are the effect determinants. They are affected by the determinants of attractiveness of ‘ample cargo sources’. In addition, this study discusses the above findings and expects to provide the study results to Taiwan’s port authorities for reference.     

不同形状质量块的声学超材料结构隔声特性研究

随着对舰船声隐身性能要求的不断提高,舰船隔声材料不仅要轻质还应具有优良的隔声性能。夹层板结构具有轻质,且在高频段具有良好的隔声性能,但其在中低频段隔声性能不是很理想。薄膜型声学超材料结构具有良好的低频带隔声性能,因此本文将薄膜型声学超材料引入传统蜂窝夹层板结构中,设计新的超材料蜂窝夹层板结构。通过数值方法对不同形状质量块超材料结构的隔声特性进行分析,并探讨蜂窝边框形状、质量块大小以及薄膜预应力对米字形质量块超材料结构隔声特性的影响。     

集装箱专用平车加装承载板实现滚装运输技术研究

为弥补应急情况下滚装运输所需平车数量缺口,同时为完善车辆自身应急保障能力,分析集装箱专用平车用于滚装运输需求,针对集装箱专用平车用于滚装运输存在的主要问题,提出在不改变车体结构前提下,通过加装承载板实现滚装运输的解决思路。结合集装箱专用平车结构特点,分析承载板的数量、尺寸、材质,设计承载板由承载面、横支撑架、渡板、斜支腿、受力面、绳拴构成,给出加装改造方法,并通过校核承载能力和研究适运范围,研究加装改造后的集装箱专用平车滚装运输能力,得出改造后的集装箱专用平车可以满足大部分滚装运输货物运输需要。     

The identification and empirical characterization of vehicular (Lagrangian) fundamental diagrams in multilane traffic flow

Traditional macroscopic traffic flow modeling framework adopts the spatial–temporal coordinate system to analyze traffic flow dynamics. With such modeling and analysis paradigm, complications arise for traffic flow data collected from mobile sensors such as probe vehicles equipped with mobile phones, Bluetooth, and Global Positioning System devices. The vehicle‐based measurement technologies call for new modeling thoughts that address the unique features of moving measurements and explore their full potential. In this paper, we look into the concept of vehicular fundamental diagram (VFD) and discuss its engineering implications. VFD corresponds to a conventional fundamental diagram (FD) in the kinematic wave (KW) theory that adopts space–time coordinates. Similar to the regular FD in the KW theory, VFD encapsulates all traffic flow dynamics. In this paper, to demonstrate the full potential of VFD in interpreting multilane traffic flow dynamics, we generalize the classical Edie's formula and propose a direct approach of reconstructing VFD from traffic measurements in the vehicular coordinates. A smoothing algorithm is proposed to effectively reduce the nonphysical fluctuation of traffic states calculated from multilane vehicle trajectories. As an example, we apply the proposed methodology to explore the next‐generation simulation datasets and identify the existence and forms of shock waves in different coordinate systems. Our findings provide empirical justifications and further insight for the Lagrangian traffic flow theory and models when applied in practice. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

面向生产管理信息化的涂装智能设计系统

研究分析涂装设计工艺流程、涂装生产管理流程及涂装机器人工艺参数，整理分析涂装工艺数据、生产管理信息和涂装机器人的工艺特征，对这些数据进行整理归纳，理清他们之间的逻辑关系，形成数据接口，通过数据库系统完成涂装规范化设计和生产管理以及涂装机器人的对接。     

A combined assessment of air and noise pollution on the High Line,New York City

The High Line is an elevated public park in New York City, transformed from an unused freight rail line. Pedestrians walking through Manhattan’s West Side can walk either on the High Line or on a footpath below. Using Manhattan as a laboratory, this paper offers a combined assessment of noise and particulate matter pollution for its pedestrians. Noise and PM_2.5 levels were recorded simultaneously for two cases (i) pedestrians walking on a footpath alongside road traffic and (ii) pedestrians walking on the elevated High Line. Testing took places over three days in autumn 2014. Results were analysed to investigate if pedestrians using the High Line would have a lower pollution exposure to those using the footpath below. Results showed statistically significant differences between the upper and lower levels in exposure to both pollution types. In order to quantify the overall impact, results are expressed through a combined air–noise pollution index. This index indicates that the average reduction in PM_2.5 and noise pollution along the High Line compared to the footpath below is approximately 37%.