基于AR模型的并靠两船相对运动预报研究

根据两船相对运动的特点,利用两船模相对运动的测量数据,运用基于自回归模型的时间序列分析法,建立了两船相对运动的数学模型,并给出了运动姿态的预报值.通过本方法的研究,可以得到满意的相对运动预报精度,为两船补给波浪、补偿装置的开发打下了理论基础.     

Forecasting current and next trip purpose with social media data and Google Places

Trip purpose is crucial to travel behavior modeling and travel demand estimation for transportation planning and investment decisions. However, the spatial-temporal complexity of human activities makes the prediction of trip purpose a challenging problem. This research, an extension of work by Ermagun et al. (2017) and Meng et al. (2017), addresses the problem of predicting both current and next trip purposes with both Google Places and social media data. First, this paper implements a new approach to match points of interest (POIs) from the Google Places API with historical Twitter data. Therefore, the popularity of each POI can be obtained. Additionally, a Bayesian neural network (BNN) is employed to model the trip dependence on each individual’s daily trip chain and infer the trip purpose. Compared with traditional models, it is found that Google Places and Twitter information can greatly improve the overall accuracy of prediction for certain activities, including “EatOut”, “Personal”, “Recreation” and “Shopping”, but not for “Education” and “Transportation”. In addition, trip duration is found to be an important factor in inferring activity/trip purposes. Further, to address the computational challenge in the BNN, an elastic net is implemented for feature selection before the classification task. Our research can lead to three types of possible applications: activity-based travel demand modeling, survey labeling assistance, and online recommendations.     

Driving cycle prediction model based on bus route features

Bus fuel economy is deeply influenced by the driving cycles, which vary for different route conditions. Buses optimized for a standard driving cycle are not necessarily suitable for actual driving conditions, and, therefore, it is critical to predict the driving cycles based on the route conditions. To conveniently predict representative driving cycles of special bus routes, this paper proposed a prediction model based on bus route features, which supports bus optimization. The relations between 27 inter-station characteristics and bus fuel economy were analyzed. According to the analysis, five inter-station route characteristics were abstracted to represent the bus route features, and four inter-station driving characteristics were abstracted to represent the driving cycle features between bus stations. Inter-station driving characteristic equations were established based on the multiple linear regression, reflecting the linear relationships between the five inter-station route characteristics and the four inter-station driving characteristics. Using kinematic segment classification, a basic driving cycle database was established, including 4704 different transmission matrices. Based on the inter-station driving characteristic equations and the basic driving cycle database, the driving cycle prediction model was developed, generating drive cycles by the iterative Markov chain for the assigned bus lines. The model was finally validated by more than 2 years of acquired data. The experimental results show that the predicted driving cycle is consistent with the historical average velocity profile, and the prediction similarity is 78.69%. The proposed model can be an effective way for the driving cycle prediction of bus routes.     

A hybrid deep learning based traffic flow prediction method and its understanding

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently demonstrated the capability to predict traffic flow with big data. While existing DNN models can provide better performance than shallow models, it is still an open issue of making full use of spatial-temporal characteristics of the traffic flow to improve their performance. In addition, our understanding of them on traffic data remains limited. This paper proposes a DNN based traffic flow prediction model (DNN-BTF) to improve the prediction accuracy. The DNN-BTF model makes full use of weekly/daily periodicity and spatial-temporal characteristics of traffic flow. Inspired by recent work in machine learning, an attention based model was introduced that automatically learns to determine the importance of past traffic flow. The convolutional neural network was also used to mine the spatial features and the recurrent neural network to mine the temporal features of traffic flow. We also showed through visualization how DNN-BTF model understands traffic flow data and presents a challenge to conventional thinking about neural networks in the transportation field that neural networks is purely a “black-box” model. Data from open-access database PeMS was used to validate the proposed DNN-BTF model on a long-term horizon prediction task. Experimental results demonstrated that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches.     

两船并靠状态下的运动响应数值模拟研究

针对两船并靠工况复杂,各种运动相互间存在耦合的情况,基于三维势流理论和波浪的辐射/衍射理论,应用多体水动力学软件,建立了船体、护舷和缆绳的模型,开展了两船在风、浪、流作用下的运动响应数值模拟。模拟结果可作为并靠方案设计和优化的参考依据,也可为两船并靠状态下的护舷力学性能计算提供支撑。     

高精度陀螺全站仪在长大铁路隧道CPⅡ平面控制网分段建网测量中的应用

为了确保隧道贯通前CPⅡ分段建网的精度,保障隧道的顺利施工,以格库铁路阿尔金山隧道为工程背景,采用高精度陀螺全站仪对洞内CPⅡ平面控制网加测多条陀螺边,并提出了陀螺定向精度观测精度内检核、多条陀螺边定向复核的方法,对陀螺定向边位置的选择、陀螺方位角观测中误差、陀螺方位角观测值的应用区间进行探讨。应用高精度陀螺定向成果对比分析洞内CPⅡ分段控制网成果,从理论上探讨了加测陀螺边对CPⅡ控制网贯通预计精度的影响,解决了隧道贯通前CPⅡ平面控制网精度无法验证的问题,确保了CPⅡ分段建网的精度,总结出一套高精度陀螺全站仪在长大铁路隧道CPⅡ平面控制网分段建网测量中的应用方法,其中包括陀螺定向边间距约2 km、陀螺定向边采用对向观测、每测站数不小于4测回且观测方向平均测角中误差应小于仪器精度(3.6″)、依据陀螺观测计算方位角与导线推算方位角较差值并将成果应用划为三个应用区间、依据陀螺定向观测精度变换权重降低贯通预计值、优化约束平差计算方案等。     

Strain prediction for critical positions of FPSO under different loading of stored oil using GAIFOA-BP neural network

FPSO (floating, production, storage and offloading) units are widely used in the offshore oil and gas industry. Generally, FPSOs have excellent oil storage capacity owing to their huge oil cargo holds. The volume and distribution of stored oil in the cargo holds influence the strain level of hull girder, especially at critical positions of FPSO. However, strain prediction using structural analysis tools is computationally expensive and time consuming. In this study, a prediction tool based on back-propagation (BP) neural network called GAIFOA-BP is proposed to predict the strain values of concerned positions of an FPSO model under different oil storage conditions. The GAIFOA-BP combines BP model and GAIFOA which is a combination of genetic algorithm (GA) and an improved fruit fly optimization algorithm (IFOA). Results from three benchmark tests show that the GAIFOA-BP model has a remarkable performance. Subsequently, a total of 81 sets of training data and 25 sets of testing data are obtained from experiment using fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors installed on the surface of an FPSO model. The numerical results show that the GAIFOA-BP is capable of predicting the strain values with higher accuracy as compared with other BP models. Finally, the reserved GAIFOA-BP model is utilized to predict the strain values under the inputs of a 10-day time series of volume and distribution of stored oil. The predicted strain results are further used to calculate the fatigue consumption of measurement points.     

基于时延特性建模的多断面短时交通流预测

针对现有交通流预测方法未充分考虑多断面车流演变规律，提出基于时延特性建模的时空相关性计算方法. 该方法采用对不同断面、不同时刻交通流的分布相似性度量，对输入的车辆到达数据序列进行切割构建时空相似度矩阵，得到相邻断面之间的时延参数. 基于时延特性建模，将多断面之间的流量信息进行融合，使用长短时记忆(LSTM)网络进行流量预测. 通过对实际路段数据的预测和结果分析，验证所提方法的有效性和实用性.     

提高TSP探测精度的途径

TSP作为目前最先进的隧道地质超前预报探测仪器，得到了广泛的应用。但是由于在现实中存在各种问题，从而导致该仪器的预测精度受到了极大限制，主要阐述如何提高其预测精度，更好地为隧道的建设服务。     

A methodology for evaluating the performance of model-based traffic prediction systems

Model-based traffic prediction systems (mbTPS) are a central component of the decision support and ICM (integrated corridor management) systems currently used in several large urban traffic management centers. These models are intended to generate real-time predictions of the system’s response to candidate operational interventions. They must therefore be kept calibrated and trustworthy. The methodologies currently available for tracking the validity of a mbTPS have been adapted from approaches originally designed for off-line operational planning models. These approaches are insensitive to the complexity of the network and to the amount and quality of the data available. They also require significant human intervention and are therefore not suitable for real-time monitoring. This paper outlines a set of criteria for designing tests that are appropriate for the mbTPS task. It also proposes a test that meets the criteria. The test compares the predictions of the mbTPS in question to those of a model-less alternative. A t-test is used to determine whether the predictions of the mbTPS are superior to those of the model-less predictor. The approach is applied to two different systems using data from the I-210 freeway in Southern California.