Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

船舶操纵仿真中图谱数值化方法的研究

在船舶操纵仿真中涉及大量的图谱转换工作,传统的图谱处理方法在精度和工作量上存在着一对矛盾。本文试图通过应用正弦小波拟合方法来替代传统折线方法,并在某些图谱上得到验证,可望在类似图谱数值化上得到推广和应用,以提高计算精度和减少计算工作量。     

施工缝粘结面劈拉强度试验研究

施工缝或日工作缝,是指已硬化的混凝土与新浇筑的混凝之间所形成的水平或垂直的接缝。本文研究了不同的浇筑方式、水泥标号、混凝土强度等级对混凝土施工缝的粘结劈裂抗拉强度的影响,为实际工程中的应用提供依据。     

武器装备的可靠性管理和对策

介绍了可靠性工作发展的简史,详细叙述了可靠性管理的内涵及如何实施,提出了舰船武器装备开展人-机-环境系统的研究,提升可靠性管理水平的对策。     

高速铁路桥上无缝线路纵向附加力研究

采用实体单元模拟桥梁及桥梁墩台、空间梁单元模拟钢轨、弹簧单元模拟桥梁与墩台及轨道之间的连接,建立梁—轨纵向相互作用三维有限元空间力学模型。以丰沙线永定河单线铁路桥梁、秦沈线沙河双线铁路桥梁对其进行计算验证。以秦沈客运专线32 m多跨双线整孔简支箱型梁桥为例进行纵向力分析,研究结果表明:列车在桥上双线对开,钢轨挠曲附加力有明显增大;列车在桥上单线制动,四根钢轨的制动附加力有较大的差别;列车在桥上双线对向制动,相比单线制动,钢轨制动附加力有一定程度增大,但增大得并不多。     

浅埋大跨度隧道的合理施工工法

采用平面弹塑性有限单元法研究浅埋大跨度隧道的合理施工工法。以实际施工中拟定的双侧壁导坑加拱部跳挖法为基础,采用开挖分步相同、开挖顺序不同的三种施工工法。工法一和工法二均先开挖左侧壁导坑,再开挖右侧壁导坑,工法一先开挖两边,再开挖中间,工法二先开挖中间,再开挖两边;工法三的左、右两侧导坑同时开挖,拱部土体先开挖中间、再开挖两边。对三种施工工法产生的地面沉降、洞周塑性区及洞周变形通过有限元数值模拟对比分析,认为工法三最为不利,工法一是最优的。但考虑现有施工条件工法二为实际施工过程中拟采用的工法,该工法引起的地面沉降最大值可控制在30mm以内,满足沉降控制及对周围环境保护的要求。研究认为:若地面有建筑物需要保护,应先开挖邻近建筑物一侧的导坑,拱部也应先开挖邻近建筑物一侧的土体。     

船舶结构极限强度可靠性分析方法研究

针对船舶总纵极限强度极限状态方程不能以显式表达的实际情况，提出采用响应面与映射变换相结合的方法展开船舶总纵强度可靠性分析，指出相关随机变量在正态化前后相关系数的差异应予以考虑，并应用于实际船舶的计算，验证了理论的合理性。     

喷水推进泵空化预测原理和方法的研究

文章在介绍喷水推进在国内外的最新应用后,着重分析喷水推进系统在舰船上的应用所带来的新特点,即极易进入空化区。根据舰船动力装置机舱自动化的设计规范中的有关监测报警系统的设计要求,文章提出了喷水推进泵空化预测原理和方法研究的必要性。     

On the fresh balance of the Adriatic Sea

The long-term mean fresh water balance of the Adriatic Sea is studied by ananalysing evaporation, precipitation and river runoff. Evaporation is computed from May latent heat flux and by means of bulk formula. In the latter case two wind speed data sets are used, namely those from the NMC and May. The sea surface temperature is taken from a historical Adriatic data set, and the air temperature and relative humidity come from the NMC data set. Two precipitation data sets are considered, namely the Legates and Willmott climatology and a data set consisting of data measured at 62 rain-gauge stations located on the Adriatic coasts. Runoff contribution to the fresh water balance is estimated from the long-term average flow rates of 39 rivers and the horizontal distribution of salinity in the upper mixed layer.The spatial distribution of the fresh water balance, as well as of its components, is analysed by means of monthly objective maps, from which averages and standard deviations are computed. The results obtained from the different computations are not always univocal, particularly in the evaluation of Summer evaporation, and are affected by relatively large statistical errors. Significant spatial and seasonal variability occurs, with a noticeable fresh water gain along the coastline of the northern and middle basins, while small areas of fresh water loss are found in the middle and southern basins. Nevertheless, on an annual basis, the difference between the fresh water losses by evaporation and the gains by precipitation and runoff is clearly negative, indicating that, unlike the whole Mediterranean, the Adriatic Sea is generally a dilution basin.     

浅埋条件下并行立交隧道施工安全性的三维数值模拟

以长沙市营盘路湘江隧道东岸并行立交段施工为研究对象,对浅埋条件下并行立交隧道施工安全性进行三维数值模拟分析。研究结果表明：隧道施工结束后地表沉降最大值为39．66mm,并位于隧道上下立交区域,地表沉降不能满足安全要求,还需对地表采取加固措施,如采取地表锚杆、地表袖阀管注浆或旋喷桩加固;下部隧道初期支护变形及受力受上部隧道施工影响不大,安全系数均大于1,结构能满足安全要求,但施工中仍不能忽视对初期支护变形及内力的监测,视情况采取加固措施,或改变施工工艺,如可以先行贯通下部隧道二次衬砌。其研究结果可为类似地质条件和施工方法的同类工程提供借鉴。