公路交通事故多发位置鉴别新方法

在对国内外事故多发位置鉴别方法分析的基础上,提出了适合于中国道路交通特点的分级鉴别的步骤和用于微观评价的事故多发位置鉴别新方法——累计频率曲线法。     

两类弱非线性振动问题的新解法

用插值摄动法[1] 求解两类弱非线性振动问题 .其一是保守系统的非线性自由振动 ;其二是参数振动 .前者由于把求解微分方程的问题转化成为求解二次代数方程 ,计算过程十分简单 ;后者由于把一个二阶微分方程的求解转化成为两次积分问题 ,也使计算过程简化 .有算例、算例表明 ,本文结果是可靠的     

遗传算法在零极点辩识中的应用

介绍了遗传算法的基本愿理,给出了遗传算法在零极点辩识中系统时延、零极点辩识的实现步骤,在种群进化过程中采用基因流代替突变算子,仿真结果说明了该方法的有效性和实用性,并说明该方法能有效地避免算法早熟收敛.     

A trial application of FSA methodology to the hatchway watertight integrity of bulk carriers

Formal safety assessment (FSA) is a formal, structured and systematic methodology, aimed at enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, property and marine environment, by using risk and cost–benefit assessments. For the application of this methodology to the rule-making process, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) presented the Interim Guidelines, which describe procedures of FSA and inputs/outputs of each procedure in detail. This paper basically deals with an application of FSA methodology according to the IMO's Interim Guidelines to the hatchway watertight integrity of bulk carriers, which was carried out as a cooperative research between Korean Register of Shipping and Seoul National University. As results of this application study, 18 hazards are identified and 32 risk control measures are devised to reduce the associated risks. Potential risks, costs and benefits when some Risk Control Options are introduced are evaluated in monetary unit of US $. Finally, some discussions and recommendations based on experiences are also given for both future work and better application of this FSA methodology to the rule-making process.     

基于行程时间影响的关键路段识别与查找

从路段实际功能出发,提出基于路段与路径行程时间序列的相关性识别关键路段的方法.借鉴蒙特卡洛思想,以真实数据构造10万条随机路径验证该方法的可行性,并识别出对上海市路网行程时间有关键影响的路段集合.以上述集合为参照,利用模糊聚类及迭代累计平方和算法提取路段行程时间序列特征并构造两个新变量,结合基础属性建立二项Logit模型,从而主动查找关键路段.比较该模型与基础模型、随机分类器查找效果表明：基于最大归一化行程时间曲线聚类,其结果对关键路段识别模型的性能有提升效用;行程时间对数差分序列的结构性变点在路网和路段级别均有明显时间聚集特性,虽然其个数与路段关键性无明显关系,但其与常见波动程度指标相关性小,可保留用于描述行程时间波动常发性和聚集性.     

基于GERT网络的应急救援关键路段识别

为了及时识别出突发事件下城市道路的关键路段,以构建最短应急救援路径,本文提出了一套完整流程.首先,针对路网在应急条件下的贫信息环境特征,设计一种基于模糊综合评判的行程时间估算方法.然后,考虑救援人员的应急心理和经验选择行为,构建面向广义阻抗的GERT(Graph Evaluation and Review Technique)网络模型.最后,运用Dijkstra算法获得救援路径完成关键路段识别.以成都市某区域实际交通网络为算例进行验证,结果表明:基于2种模糊算子估算路段行程速度,其绝对误差为2.722 km/h,精度较高;与传统关键路段识别方法相比,GERT网络模型能更好地反映行程时间和路段拥挤度对路径选择行为的影响(拟合度80.95%),并将重要度识别技术从路网降低到路径层面,效果良好.     

基于朴素贝叶斯算法的船舶异常行为监测

随着海事事故与海上违法行为的不断增多,智能的监控方法成为降低海事事故,打击海上违法行为的有效手段.同时,船舶自动识别系统(Automatic Identification System,AIS)的普及及船舶交通管理系统(Vessel Traffic Service,VTS)的扩建,又为智能监控提供了数据支持.鉴于此,利用船舶自动识别系统提供的数据,分析通航水域船舶信息的分布情况,根据其概率分布采用朴素贝叶斯算法,从船舶航速、航向及距航道边界距离3个方面,构建船舶异常行为检测模型.最后,以成山角通航水域为例,检验模型的有效性.实验结果表明,构建的模型能够有效地完成异常行为监测,减少海事监管人员的工作强度,同时根据实验结果分析了成山角水域船舶航行的特点,并对成山角定线制提出合理化建议.     

公路收费系统车牌识别子系统监理

车牌识别系统是近年来用于公路收费管理,作为路费堵漏技术手段而推广的一项新技术,我国尚未对此制定相应标准和规范,国际上也没有可参照的技术协议或标准等。文章介绍了与之相关的背景,对该工程的监理实施从重点环节到测试方法进行了探讨,同时论述了开展监理工作的层次和规范化工作程序。     

大跨径连续梁实桥构件刚度模态识别方法

提出一种利用低阶测试模态对桥梁构件抗弯刚度进行有限权量平差的最小二乘解识别方法。通过对主跨110m的广州大桥主桥3跨变截面连续箱梁实桥梁体抗弯刚度进行数值模拟识别及结合桥梁现场动静载试验进行识别结果,表明此方法利用现有的测试技术对大跨径连续梁桥进行抗弯刚度识别误差是常规最小二乘解识别误差的1/8～1/10,识别精度得到了极大的改善。     

Regularization Method to the Parameter Identification of Interfacial Heat Transfer Coefficient and Properties during Casting Solidification

The accurate material physical properties, initial and boundary conditions are indispensable to the numerical simulation in the casting process, and they are related to the simulation accuracy directly. The inverse heat conduction method can be used to identify the mentioned above parameters based on the temperature measurement data. This paper presented a new inverse method according to Tikhonov regularization theory. A regularization functional was established and the regularization parameter was deduced, the Newton-Raphson iteration method was used to solve the equations. One detailed case was solved to identify the thermal conductivity and specific heat of sand mold and interfacial heat transfer coefficient (IHTC) at the meantime. This indicates that the regularization method is very efficient in decreasing the sensitivity to the temperature measurement data, overcoming the ill-posedness of the inverse heat conduction problem (IHCP) and improving the stability and accuracy of the results. As a general inverse method, it can be used to identify not only the material physical properties but also the initial and boundary conditions' parameters.