混沌时间序列局域零阶预测法性能比较

利用计算机仿真比较了均值、距离加权和指数加权3种混沌局域零阶预测方法的预测精度、抗噪声及多步预测性能．在无噪声或噪声干扰较小时，距离加权预测法的性能最好；当噪声干扰较大时，指数加权预测法预测性能最优．指数加权与均值预测法几乎具有相同的多步预测能力，距离加权预测法的短期预测性能最佳．对于标准的离散混沌时间序列，3种预测方法多步预测误差达到一定值后，不再随预测步长的增加而增加；对于由连续系统抽样得到的混沌时间序列，多步预测误差呈现一定周期性变化．     

现代车用发动机冷却系统研究进展

简要分析了发动机冷却系统的发展现状、影响因素及存在的问题;介绍了目前国内外前沿的发动机冷却系统的设计理念和研究方法,如智能化电控冷却系统、精确冷却理念、分流式冷却、空气侧流动以及整车热管理研究等;展望了现代发动机冷却系统实现高效低耗的目标,指出采用电控冷却部件实现精确冷却和分流式冷却的有效整合是行之有效的手段,而整车热管理研究势必会成为全面提高冷却系统性能的主要方法。     

双车道二级公路纵坡段车辆运行速度预测模型

在分析双车道二级公路不同坡度、坡长纵坡的大量运行速度实测数据的基础上,得出车辆运行规律。通过研究纵断面要素(坡度、坡长)与车辆运行速度的关系,确定自变量参数后,利用SPSS软件进行回归分析,分别建立了小车上坡、大车上坡在坡中和坡顶以及小车下坡、大车下坡在坡中和坡底的运行速度预测模型,并对模型进行了检验。结果表明:车辆运行速度随坡度增加而减小,其变化的幅度受坡长影响;预测模型分别通过了回归等式的显著性检验、回归参数的显著性检验和回归等式应用准确度的检验,所有模型的相对预测误差平均值均小于5%,建立的回归模型精度满足要求。     

Neural network-based fuel consumption estimation for container ships in Korea

ABSTRACT

Due to the outstanding strength of advanced machine-learning techniques, they have become increasingly common in predictive studies in recent years, particularly in predicting ship energy performance. In constructing predictive models, prior studies have mostly employed vessels’ technical parameters to establish machine-learning algorithms. To bridge this research gap and enable wider applications, this paper presents the design of a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP ANN) as a machine-learning technique to estimate ship fuel consumption. We utilized the real operational data from 100–143 container ships to estimate fuel consumption for five different container ships grouped by size. We compared the performance of two ANN models and two multiple-regression models. Four input parameters (sailing time, speed, cargo weight, and capacity) were included in the first ANN and the first regression model, while the other two models only consider two inputs from physical function. The mean absolute percentage error of the ANN models with four inputs was the smallest and less than those in extended statistical models, demonstrating the MLP’s superiority over the statistical model. The MLP ANN model can thus be applied to confirm the effectiveness of the slow-steaming method for achieving energy efficiency.     

关于天津南港工业区东部港区生态环境的规划思考

南港东部港区作为一个新兴港区，将大力发展大宗干散货、石化类、散货物流以及与之配套的商务服务，在生态环保问题上应做到高起点、高标准、同时有所创新。本文从规划角度对东部港区生态环境问题进行分析，研究建设环境友好、可持续发展的新型港区的整体思路。     

Border crossing delay prediction using transient multi-server queueing models

As a result of the continued increase in travel demand coupled with the need for tighter security and inspection procedures after September 11, border crossing delay has recently become a critical issue with tremendous economic and social costs. The current paper develops multi-server queuing models to estimate border crossing delay in support of a predictive traveler information system for the crossings. Two classes of multi-server models are considered: (1) models with exponential inter-arrival times and Erlang service times; and (2) a more generic model with a Batch Markovian Arrival Process (BMAP) and phase types (PH) services. As a case study, the models are developed based on real-time traffic volume and inspection time data collected at one of the major US–Canada border crossings, the Peace Bridge, and their transient solution is obtained using heuristic methods. For validation, the queueing models’ estimates are compared to the results from a detailed microscopic traffic simulation model of the Peace Bridge border crossing. The comparison shows that the transient queueing model, along its heuristic solution algorithm, is capable of predicting border crossing delay. Finally, a set of sensitivity analysis tests are conducted, and the developed models are incorporated within an optimization framework to help inform border crossing management strategies.     

半承载/全承载客车混线生产工艺

分析半承载/全承载客车结构工艺特点，结合本公司成功经验，解决半承载/全承载客车混线生产影响生产组织及效率的问题。     

隧道围岩稳定性改进模糊概率模型及其应用研究

为更加准确有效地判别隧道围岩稳定性,引入RandWPSO-LSSVM(随机权重粒子群算法-最小二乘支持向量机)围岩极限位 移预测模型,对传统模型的隶属函数进行优化,建立围岩稳定性改进模糊概率模型。基于改进模型方法,由围岩位移预测值u、预测 位移标准差、围岩极限位移预测值U 及预测极限位移标准差即可求解隧道围岩稳定概率,并结合8 个工程算例对模型进行验证。 结果表明,改进模型解决了传统模型隶属函数存在的极限位移取值范围不合理的问题,且有效消除了隶属函数线性简化处理导致 的偏差,由其计算的稳定概率与实际情况吻合较好,围岩稳定性评价结果的可靠性更高; 将改进模型应用于实际工程的隧道围岩 稳定性判别中,计算结果能够较好地反映实际工程情况。     

某艇海损修理生产设计概述

文章通过对某快速艇严重毁损成功修复的设计总结，简要介绍了在艇体遭受大面积毁损、变形严重情况下的修理过程控制要点，并针对施工工艺中出现问题的解决途径进行论述。就船厂而言，在原设计资料缺失的情况下，如何利用工厂自身条件合理制定出既切实可行、又能恢复设计性能指标，为部队、军代表所接受的修理方案，具有一定的实际意义。     

电话交换网业务预测方法讨论

本文对电信规划中交换网业务预测的方法及应用进行了阐述。