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41.
短时交通流预测在城市交通控制和管理中起着十分重要的作用。然而,目前很多预测模型均假定模型的参数是不随时间变化的,这与实际不符,从而影响了预测的精度。本文提出采用多层建模与灰色建模的综合方法预测短时交通流。该方法把预测问题分为两部分:一是预测模型参数的预测;二是根据参数预测值的交通流预测。其中,对模型参数运用灰色理论预测方法。实例分析表明,本方法有较好的预测精度和实用价值。 相似文献
42.
［Objectives］As composite materials have varied internal structures, an in-depth analysis of the damage mechanisms of their component materials can provide a research foundation for the ultimate strength analysis of composite stiffened panels. ［Methods］The microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic mechanical analyses of marine glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP) composite stiffened panels are carried out using a multi-scale approach. Microscopic and mesoscopic representative volume element (RVE) models of chopped strand mat (CSM) and woven roving (WR) materials are established, and the macroscopic equivalent stiffness is obtained by homogenizing the RVE models. The ABAQUS VUMAT subroutine is used to code the progressive damage evolution model of the composite materials to derive the damage evolution mechanism of the microscopic and mesoscopic models respectively. The equivalent strength of macroscopic laminates is also obtained. ［Results］The multi-scale approach can be used to accurately evaluate the macroscopic mechanical properties of composite materials, and the ultimate strength of composite stiffened panels is mainly determined by fiber bundle failure. ［Conclusions］The obtained macroscopic material parameters can be used to calculate the ultimate strength of composite stiffened panels, while the parametric study of the mesomechanics of composite materials can provide an analysis tool for investigating the influence of material processing technology. © 2023 Chinese Journal of Ship Research. All rights reserved. 相似文献