Is equilibrium in transport pure Nash,mixed or Stochastic?

The classical theory of transport equilibrium is based on the Wardrop’s first principle that describes a Nash User Equilibrium (UE), where in no driver can unilaterally change routes to improve his/her travel times. A growing number of economic laboratory experiments aiming at testing Nash-Wardrop equilibrium have shown that the Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium (PSNE) is not able to explain the observed strategic choices well. In addition even though Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium (MSNE) has been found to fit better the observed aggregate choices, it does not explain the variance in choices well. This study analyses choices made by users in three different experiments involving strategic interactions in endogenous congestion to evaluate equilibrium prediction. We compare the predictions of the PSNE, MSNE and Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE). In SUE, the observed variations in choices are assumed to be due to perception errors. The study proposes a method to iteratively estimate SUE models on choice data with strategic interactions. Among the three sets of experimental data the SUE approach was found to accurately predict the average choices, as well as the variances in choices. The fact that the SUE model was found to accurately predict variances in choices, suggests its applicability for transport equilibrium models that attempt to evaluate reliability in transportation systems. This finding is fundamental in the effort to determining a behaviourally consistent paradigm to model equilibrium in transport networks. The study also finds that Fechner error which is the inverse of the scale parameter in the SUE model is affected by the group sizes and the complexity of the cost function. In fact, the larger group sizes and complexity of cost functions increased the variability in choices. Finally, from an experimental design standpoint we show that it is not possible to estimate a noise parameter associate to Fechner error in the case when the choices are equally probable.     

地铁车站结构随机振动响应分析

基于地震反应的随机非确定性,运用基于概率统计方法的随机振动理论进行结构抗震分析,考察结构的动力可靠度,是一种合理的设计方法。运用虚拟激励法对青岛地铁五四广场站进行随机振动分析,避免了传统方法计算的冗繁,得到了具有统计意义的结构动力响应。考虑x向功率谱输入时,弯矩分布较为均匀;地铁结构体型变化较大的部位剪力明显增大;柱底剪力较小,边跨柱剪力小于中跨柱底剪力。考虑y向功率谱函数输入时,沿梁轴向剪力值逐渐增大,柱底剪力明显大于x向输入时的柱底剪力,边跨柱柱底剪力大于中跨柱底剪力。所得结论为地铁站这一复杂结构形式进行基于可靠度理论的设计提供了依据,可以作为同类设计的参考指导。     

解析法预计平面贯通测量误差应用

在交通工程的隧道和矿山井下建设中，由于预计贯通平面测量误差的传统图解法存在缺陷，提出用误差椭圆和坐标变换2种解析法来预计贯通测量平面误差，并通过实例证明，这2种新方法过程简单，不仅可以提高平面贯通测量的精度，还可以节省时间，提高工作效率。     

瞬态统计能量分析法中动态响应误差分析

统计能量分析方法能够有效预示舰船和车辆等结构的高频振动及噪声。本文通过建立两子结构耦合模型，利用差分法研究了瞬态统计能量分析中参数误差对子结构响应能量的影响，同时给出了参数误差与所导致能量误差的关系函数。结果表明：对于外载荷直接激励的子结构，内损耗因子和耦合损耗因子的误差都会导致被预示总能量的减小。对于外载荷间接激励的子结构，内损耗因子的误差会导致峰值能量的减小，而耦合损耗因子的误差会导致峰值能量的增加。本文内容对改进动力学系统数值模型以及提高结构振动和噪声预示精度有一定的帮助。     

VoIP中的丢帧补偿策略研究的概况

VoIP由于其分组交换方式及实时性特点,不能保证分组的可靠传输.阐述了造成VoIP质量不高的原因,比较了几种丢帧补偿策略的优缺点,介绍了G.723.1的插值补偿算法.     

测站偏移对变形监测结果的影响分析

在使用全站仪对大型建筑结构的变形进行实时监测时,受建筑结构、地形等客观因素的影响,有时某些测站点不得不布置在变形区内。在实时监测过程中,当变形区内测站点发生偏移时,该点的设站数据仍然是偏移之前的,这必然对监测数据的精度造成不利影响。为解决这一问题,推导出测点偏移对监测数据影响的定量公式,并对该不利影响给予实时改正。进行了模拟实验。实验结果表明:在动态实时监测系统中,这种方法可完全消除测站点不稳定带来的误差,并且简单易行。     

随机响应约束下的桁架结构拓扑优化

研究随机响应约束下的桁架结构拓扑优化问题具有重要的工程应用前景.文章采用自适应遗传算法(AGA)求解了随机响应约束下的桁架结构拓扑优化问题.通过引入海明距离生成高质量的初始种群、采用自适应的交叉和变异算子以及对适应度函数进行线性标定这三个步骤改进了遗传算法的搜索效率以及收敛性.在拓扑优化列式中考虑杆件以及各自由度的拓扑变量以精确地模拟优化过程中杆件和结点的删除.建立了随机载荷作用下结构均方响应的表达式,并以此作为拓扑优化问题的约束条件.另外,提出了一些启发式算法来引导杆件和结点的删除.最后,通过对随机激励下的二维桁架以及三维桁架进行拓扑优化计算,证明了本文方法的实用性和有效性.     

Adaptive neuron control using an integrated error approach with application to active suspensions

This paper proposes a new neuron control strategy for an active vehicle suspension system, with the emphasis on the study of multivariable and uncertain suspension characteristics. The novelty of this strategy is in the use of integrated error, which consists of multiple output errors in the regulated plant. By combining the integrated error approach with the traditional neuron control (TNC), integrated error neuron control (IENC) is presented. It provides a direct control to the multiple outputs of the control plant simultaneously. Taking a quarter-car model as an example, the proposed control strategy is applied and comparative simulations are carried out with various vehicle parameters and road input conditions. Simulation results prove the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed IENC method. In addition, the newly proposed neuron scheme provides a simple yet efficient new possibility for the control of a class of uncertain multivariable systems similar to an active vehicle suspension.     

不确定性视阈下的战略管理

由于存在各种不确定性,企业不可能寻找到一种最好的战略管理办法,因此企业应当寻求适度管理,以避免出现管理刚性,失去对不确定性的应变能力。企业应该确立这样的观念,即管理不确定性将成为企业家的主要职能;正确地认识不确定性、化解不确定性,乃至创造并利用不确定性,将是企业家必修的内功;驾驭不确定性将成为企业的核心竞争能力。本文首先归纳提炼出不确定性的五种类型,在此基础上给出了管理不确定性的认知理念,提出了在战略管理中需要特别重视的不断试错、应急和学习及激活右脑等问题,最后指证了突变式变革与创新的主张。     

Improvement of the second order approximation of the smoothed particle hydrodynamics

The smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH), as a fully Lagrangian particle method, has been successfully applied to astrophysical problems and extended to elastic dynamics and computational fluid dynamics.High order derivatives have to be approximated when elastic dynamics problems are modeled. However, the approximation errors in SPH could lead to computational failure in the case that the order of derivative is high.A novel method was proposed in order to improve the accuracy of SPH method, which shows the relationship between the selected functions and their SPH approximations. The entire involved system was represented by a finite number of particles that carry individual mass and occupy individual space, and the integral interpolation was approximated by a summation interpolation. In addition, error comparison was made between SPH method with and without the present improvement.