基于时间序列法的舰船运动预报实验研究

采用线性自回归AR模型、具有首前波观测量的ARMA模型以及非线性自回归NAR模型三种方法分别对舰船运动进行预报,将得到的预报结果与实验测量结果进行验证比较,并对最佳预报模式进行讨论.     

Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models

A hybrid approach for eutrophication assessment in estuarine and coastal ecosystems is presented. The ASSETS screening model (http://www.eutro.org) classifies eutrophication status into five classes: High (better), Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad (worse). This model was applied to a dataset from a shallow coastal barrier island system in southwest Europe (Ria Formosa), with a resulting score of Good. A detailed dynamic model was developed for this ecosystem, and the outputs were used to drive the screening model. Four scenarios were run on the research model: pristine, standard (simulates present loading), half and double the current nutrient loading. The Ria Formosa has a short water residence time and eutrophication symptoms are not apparent in the water column. However, benthic symptoms are expressed as excessive macroalgal growth and strong dissolved oxygen fluctuations in the tide pools. The standard simulation results showed an ASSETS grade identical to the field data application. The application of the screening model to the other scenario outputs showed the responsiveness of ASSETS to changes in pressure, state and response, scoring a grade of High under pristine conditions, Good for half the standard scenario and Moderate for double the present loadings. The use of this hybrid approach allows managers to test the outcome of measures against a set of well-defined metrics for the evaluation of state. It additionally provides a way of testing and improving the pressure component of ASSETS. Sensitivity analysis revealed that sub-sampling the output of the research model at a monthly scale, typical for the acquisition of field data, may significantly affect the outcome of the screening model, by overlooking extreme events such as occasional night-time anoxia in tide pools.     

客车行业的市场现状及政策趋势

分析客车行业的市场现状及政策趋势；对客车行业应重点关注节能和安全标准的实施进行阐述。     

布袋注浆桩施工工艺及造价指标分析

根据布袋注浆桩施工情况，结合现场施工记录和收集的资料，对布袋注浆桩从施工工艺流程的设计到成孔设备的选择，从振动沉管机成孔施工步骤到注浆中注浆管及布袋绑扎、下放、拌制浆液及注浆都作了详细的分析。并根据人员组织、材料消耗和主要施工机械设备的消耗，对布袋注浆桩施工技术的造价成本指标进行了分析。     

机车乘务员出乘“三交三问”系统的开发与应用

介绍了机车乘务员出乘时“三交三问”培训、考试系统,系统有机地将“三交三问”培训考试、用户管理、题库管理、成绩查询、考试分析、数据备份与还原等模块集成在一起,充分利用了模块化的设计思想和开发方法,探索出机车乘务员班前针对性教育的新路子。     

提速车辆转向架橡胶球铰刚度分析

根据提速客车转向架橡胶球铰的结构特点，结合橡胶的本构模型及相关系数，利用ABAQUS软件对其径向刚度、轴向刚度、偏转刚度和扭转刚度进行了分析，并将计算结果和试验结果进行了比较。结果表明：计算结果和试验结果具有较好的一致性，利用有限元分析能指导橡胶球铰及同类产品的结构设计。     

钩尾销螺栓折断的原因分析与探讨

分析了钩尾销螺栓折断的原因,并提出了改进建议。     

襄渝铁路流水河右线大桥钢吊箱施工力学效应分析

以襄渝铁路流水河右线大桥4号墩为工程背景，运用有限元法对钢吊箱施工过程进行力学效应分析。主要研究钢吊箱施工过程的稳定状况和变形状态，为施工提供数据支持，优化施工控制方案。同时对钢吊箱进行试验研究，试验结果与计算结果基本相符，说明计算模型正确。所得结论可为实际工程的计算和设计提供一定的理论参考。     

京广线K950＋000～K950＋092路基病害成因分析及整治

分析了京广线第六次提速拨改地段路基病害原因，提出了静压注浆加固地基工程措施，详细介绍了路基加固方案及施工工艺。     

长征ⅢB-160型架桥铺轨机存在问题分析及改进措施

针对长征ⅢB-160型架桥铺轨机存在的问题进行了全面分析并提出了改进措施，该架桥铺轨机在以后的黎湛铁路、钦北铁路及浙赣铁路的铺架中安全优质地完成了施工任务，创造了较好的经济和社会效益，具有较大的推广应用价值。