沉管隧道变截面管段浮运水流力及系缆桩可靠性分析

为探索沉管隧道变截面管段浮运过程的水流力与系缆桩可靠性,以广州洲头咀沉管隧道为依托,借助CFD软件建立流体动力学模型,计算管段横向浮运所受的水流力并探讨规范水流力公式的适用性;以此为基础,利用ANSYS开展管段浮运系缆桩可靠性分析。研究表明： 1) 规范水流力公式具备一定的适用性,采用结构形式为矩形梁时对应的水流阻力系数会导致与数值计算结果存在不容忽视的差别,通过CFD计算结果修正后两者吻合较好; 2) 系缆桩处于弹性受力状态,刚度与强度均未被削弱,设计方案可满足浮运安全要求; 3) 钢丝绳拉力作用下管段结构混凝土处于带裂缝工作状态,需基于计算结果对系缆桩预埋件锚固区做局部加强以抑制裂缝发展。     

Urban travel time reliability at different traffic conditions

The decision making of travelers for route choice and departure time choice depends on the expected travel time and its reliability. A common understanding of reliability is that it is related to several statistical properties of the travel time distribution, especially to the standard deviation of the travel time and also to the skewness. For an important corridor in Changsha (P.R. China) the travel time reliability has been evaluated and a linear model is proposed for the relationship between travel time, standard deviation, skewness, and some other traffic characteristics. Statistical analysis is done for both simulation data from a delay distribution model and for real life data from automated number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras. ANPR data give unbiased travel time data, which is more representative than probe vehicles. The relationship between the mean travel time and its standard deviation is verified with an analytical model for travel time distributions as well as with the ANPR travel times. Average travel time and the standard deviation are linearly correlated for single links as well as corridors. Other influence factors are related to skewness and travel time standard deviations, such as vehicle density and degree of saturation. Skewness appears to be less well to explain from traffic characteristics than the standard deviation is.     

二阶随机需求条件下公交网络的服务可靠性研究

引入服务可靠性这一概念,以乘客出行成本和车行运营成本最小为目标建立随机需求下的 公交网络模型,并提出固定需求的服务方案模型和改进的二阶随机方案模型。该模型体现了乘客 公交出行的选择策略并反映了公交网络中不确定需求和服务可靠性的相互联系。在分析公交出行 网络中的服务设计,包括常规服务和特别服务的基础上,运用二阶下降法通过规定不确定的随机 变量（服务可靠性参数） 来求解二阶随机方案：首先在一阶段减少混合整数规划的数量以节省计 算时间,随后在二阶段中模拟出一个线性规划,以便有效地求解二阶随机方案。最后,通过实例 模型验证了该方案的可行性。     

钱江隧道火灾疏散可靠性分析

为评估钱江隧道火灾疏散的可靠性,从而为钱江隧道逃生通道设置方案决策提供参考依据,基于改进的公路隧道需用安全疏散时间RSET计算法,采用Monte Carlo随机数值试验方法,针对钱江隧道的特点,对3种不同的逃生通道方案进行公路隧道火灾人群疏散随机性仿真模拟,从而可计算不同疏散逃生方案、不同人群疏散荷载下疏散的失效概率.通过对计算结果分析可得:不考虑隧道各项火灾控制与疏散的有利因素,可用安全疏散时间取规范值时,横通道疏散可靠性相对最高,纵横结合逃生方案次之.     

基于嵌入式单片机的角度自动控制系统的可靠性设计

从方案设计、硬件设计、重要件设计、控制软件设计等几个方面,对某型基于单片机的角度自动控制系统的可靠性设计内容进行了介绍.     

城市轨道网络抗毁可靠性定义及评价指标模型研究

从可靠性理论出发,结合城市轨道网络特点,提出了城市轨道网络系统抗毁可靠性的定义——整个轨道交通网络在受到外界破坏作用后正常运营的能力。将抗毁可靠度定义为抗毁可靠性的度量值。根据网络的拓扑结构及客流分布特点,从运输量分配入手,把从路网中单独隔离出子系统后所影响的客流量作为评价子系统抗毁可靠性的依据,建立子系统抗毁可靠性的评价,并应用矩阵逻辑或运算计算相应的评价指标。在评价子系统抗毁可靠性基础上,提出了5个网络系统抗毁可靠性特征值,从不同角度评价路网系统的抗毁可靠性。最后,用一算例验证了该模型及相应评价指标的可行性和有效性。     

Structural safety assessment of a pontoon-type VLFS considering damage to the breakwater

 A structural safety assessment of a pontoon-type very large floating structure (VLFS) surrounded by a gravity-type breakwater was carried out for extreme wave conditions by considering the damage to the breakwater. Bending and shear collapses are considered to be a failure mode of the floating structure, while overturning damages the breakwater. The probability of the breakwater overturning, and the transmitted wave height before and after damage to the breakwater, are evaluated using design formulae for port and harbor facilities in Japan. The ultimate bending and shear strengths of the floating structure are calculated by the idealized structural unit method (ISUM) and FEM, respectively. The calculated failure probability for the floating structure is compared with the specified target safety level. It was found that the floating structure under consideration is most likely to fail by bending in transverse waves, and that the corresponding failure probability satisfies the target level. Received: September 12, 2002 / Accepted: October 4, 2002 Acknowledgment. The authors are grateful to Dr. Shigeo Ohmatsu, National Maritime Research Institute, Japan, for allowing us to use the program of hydroelastic response analysis. Address correspondence to: M. Fujikubo (e-mail: fujikubo@naoe.hiroshima-u.ac.jp) Updated from the Japanese original, which won the 2002 SNAJ prize (J Soc Arthit Jpn 2002;190:337–345)     

基于蒙特卡罗的软件可靠性测试技术研究

为了缩短软件测试周期,提出了运用蒙特卡罗(Monte-Carlo)方法进行软件可靠性测试的基本技术,通过实例介绍了这一技术在软件测试中的应用过程.这一技术较好地解决了2个问题:测试用例的优化;使用新的评判准则分析测试结果.     

靠船墩可靠性设计方法

通过对靠船墩三维结构随机力学分析,提出基于可靠度理论下的靠船墩设计方法,可直接应用于工程实践     

基于构件的软件可靠性设计技术研究

在大型指挥控制系统的软件开发中，其可靠性问题是一个核心问题。以指挥控制系统软件系统为研究对象，进行软件可靠性分析，推导出指控系统软件可靠性计算公式。结合构件化技术和软件可靠性工程过程，提出基于构件生产的指控系统可靠性工程过程模型。