Prediction of fatigue life and estimation of its reliability on the parts of an air suspension system

Air suspension systems have been implemented in various commercial vehicles, such as buses and special purpose trucks, because of the comfortable ride and easy height control. An evaluation of the durability of vehicle parts has been required for service life and safety starting in the early stages of design. The cyclic load applied to the vehicle can cause fatigue failure of parts, such as the suspension frame. This paper presents a method to predict the fatigue life of the suspension frame at the design stage of the air suspension system used in a heavy-duty vehicle. To estimate the fatigue life using the SN method, the Dynamic Stress Time History (DSTH) is necessary for the part of interest. DSTH can be obtained from the results of the flexible body dynamic analysis using the Belgian road simulation and the Modal Stress Recovery (MSR) method. Furthermore, the reliability of the predicted fatigue life can be evaluated by considering the variations in material properties. The probability and distribution of the expected life cycle can be obtained using experimental design with a minimum number of simulations. The advantage of using statistical methods to evaluate the life cycle is the ability to predict replacement time and the probability of failure of mass-produced parts. This paper proposes a rapid and simple method that can be effectively applied to the design of vehicle parts.     

佛山平胜大桥工程质量鉴定办法研究

结合佛山平胜大桥的建设实际,介绍自锚式悬索桥工程质量鉴定办法的研究思路及技术线路,特别是将结构可靠度指标用于工程质量鉴定的尝试,在桥梁工程竣(交)工时,可为工程质量的科学、准确鉴定提供一种新办法。     

Reliability analysis of repairable systems using stochastic point processes

In order to analyze the failure data from repairable systems, the homogeneous Poisson process(HPP) is usually used. In general, HPP cannot be applied to analyze the entire life cycle of a complex, re-pairable system because the rate of occurrence of failures (ROCOF) of the system changes over time rather thanremains stable. However, from a practical point of view, it is always preferred to apply the simplest methodto address problems and to obtain useful practical results. Therefore, we attempted to use the HPP model toanalyze the failure data from real repairable systems. A graphic method and the Laplace test were also usedin the analysis. Results of numerical applications show that the HPP model may be a useful tool for the entirelife cycle of repairable systems.     

基于单调关联系统的驾驶行为可靠度计算方法

为合理评估驾驶员驾驶行为的可靠性,提出了驾驶行为可靠度计算方法,将人机系统可靠性理论与驾驶行为链相结合,构建了基于感知、判断、操作元件及模块组的驾驶行为可靠性框图,确定了单项器官元件可靠度测试与计算方法,运用单调关联系统理论给出了功能模块可靠度及驾驶行为系统可靠度的量化模型,计算了模型中各生理、心理元件概率重要度,分析了其对驾驶行为的影响度。计算结果表明:事故组与非事故组间行为可靠性存在明显差异,非事故组的可靠性整体大于事故组,但整体可靠性呈下降趋势,事故组驾驶员整体操作稳定性较差;生理因素对驾驶行为可靠度影响度前期较大后期较小,而心理因素则相反。     

数控机床的可靠性研究

我国数控机床制造水平与国外先进水平相比还有很大差距,主要反映在可靠性差、故障率高上。本文通过对数控机床可靠性的分析,找出其可靠性的薄弱环节,进一步明确了其工作的改进方向。     

隧道衬砌可靠指标的优化求解方法

为解决JC法计算隧道衬砌可靠指标过程中极限状态选用方法的缺陷,通过随机有限元方法和Monte-Carlo法对时速350 km高速铁路双线隧道Ⅲa、Ⅳb型衬砌进行抽样计算,得到2种衬砌各截面偏心距平均值和变异系数; 通过对素混凝土和钢筋混凝土衬砌极限状态功能函数及其适用条件的分析,引入几何优化法,以约束函数表示功能函数的约束条件,建立可靠指标的优化求解模型; 选用寻优性能良好的Global Search函数,对2种衬砌各截面可靠指标进行优化求解,并与JC法进行对比,证明优化方法的优势。     

沉管隧道变截面管段浮运水流力及系缆桩可靠性分析

为探索沉管隧道变截面管段浮运过程的水流力与系缆桩可靠性,以广州洲头咀沉管隧道为依托,借助CFD软件建立流体动力学模型,计算管段横向浮运所受的水流力并探讨规范水流力公式的适用性;以此为基础,利用ANSYS开展管段浮运系缆桩可靠性分析。研究表明： 1) 规范水流力公式具备一定的适用性,采用结构形式为矩形梁时对应的水流阻力系数会导致与数值计算结果存在不容忽视的差别,通过CFD计算结果修正后两者吻合较好; 2) 系缆桩处于弹性受力状态,刚度与强度均未被削弱,设计方案可满足浮运安全要求; 3) 钢丝绳拉力作用下管段结构混凝土处于带裂缝工作状态,需基于计算结果对系缆桩预埋件锚固区做局部加强以抑制裂缝发展。     

Urban travel time reliability at different traffic conditions

The decision making of travelers for route choice and departure time choice depends on the expected travel time and its reliability. A common understanding of reliability is that it is related to several statistical properties of the travel time distribution, especially to the standard deviation of the travel time and also to the skewness. For an important corridor in Changsha (P.R. China) the travel time reliability has been evaluated and a linear model is proposed for the relationship between travel time, standard deviation, skewness, and some other traffic characteristics. Statistical analysis is done for both simulation data from a delay distribution model and for real life data from automated number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras. ANPR data give unbiased travel time data, which is more representative than probe vehicles. The relationship between the mean travel time and its standard deviation is verified with an analytical model for travel time distributions as well as with the ANPR travel times. Average travel time and the standard deviation are linearly correlated for single links as well as corridors. Other influence factors are related to skewness and travel time standard deviations, such as vehicle density and degree of saturation. Skewness appears to be less well to explain from traffic characteristics than the standard deviation is.     

二阶随机需求条件下公交网络的服务可靠性研究

引入服务可靠性这一概念,以乘客出行成本和车行运营成本最小为目标建立随机需求下的 公交网络模型,并提出固定需求的服务方案模型和改进的二阶随机方案模型。该模型体现了乘客 公交出行的选择策略并反映了公交网络中不确定需求和服务可靠性的相互联系。在分析公交出行 网络中的服务设计,包括常规服务和特别服务的基础上,运用二阶下降法通过规定不确定的随机 变量（服务可靠性参数） 来求解二阶随机方案：首先在一阶段减少混合整数规划的数量以节省计 算时间,随后在二阶段中模拟出一个线性规划,以便有效地求解二阶随机方案。最后,通过实例 模型验证了该方案的可行性。     

Logistical restructuring and road freight traffic growth

The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the close correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been rooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traffic growth in two ways: first, by analysing official data on the production, consumption and movement of food and drink products, and second, by conducting a survey of the changing freight transport requirements of 88 large British-based manufacturers.The analysis of secondary data shows how, in the food and drink sector, the relationship between the real value of output and road vehicle-kms hinges on four key parameters: value density, handling factor, average length of haul and consignment size. An attempt is made to explain variations in these parameters.The survey of manufacturers suggests that the growth of lorry traffic is the net result of a complex interaction between factors operating at four levels of logistical management: strategic planning of logistical systems, choice of suppliers and distributors, scheduling of product flow and the management of transport resources. Changes in the frequency and scheduling of freight deliveries in response to tightening customer service requirements and just-in-time management appear to have become a more prevalent cause of freight traffic growth than the physical restructuring of logistical systems. Manufacturers anticipate that their road freight demand will broadly increase in line with sales and be largely unaffected by road transport cost increases at the levels currently proposed. The paper concludes by examining their likely reactions to a much sharper increase in the cost of road freight movement.