舵系锥轴锥孔连接受力分析

通过对船舶航行工况条件下锥面连接的受力分析,得出锥面连接的表面接触比压与其能传递的轴向摩擦力和摩擦扭矩关系的计算公式;并对压入安装工况条件下锥面连接的受力分析,得出装配时压入力与接触比压关系的计算公式。通过实例计算,证明该计算方法是可行的。     

波浪模型试验应当注意的一些问题

根据实践经验,按照波浪物理模型试验要求、工作大纲、试验条件、制作模型、试验过程和报告编写等环节,总结了容易疏忽的问题,并给出了解决这些问题的方法和建议,以促进模型试验成果的科学性和可靠性,提高工作效率,避免不必要地失误。可供从事此项工作人员特别是经验不多的年轻人借鉴和参考。     

基于元胞理论的船厂码头移泊作业问题算法

为了解决大规模船厂的码头移泊作业问题，基于船舶移动路径具有过程演进的特性，建立了码头移泊作业问题的元胞数学模型。按照问题元胞模型的演进特性和演变规则，采用蚁群智能算法来对模型进行求解，并论证了该算法的收敛性。通过实例计算，其结果与船厂实际操作安排进行比较和分析，验证了该算法的有效性和优越性。     

Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas

In today’s world of volatile fuel prices and climate concerns, there is little study on the relationship between vehicle ownership patterns and attitudes toward vehicle cost (including fuel prices and feebates) and vehicle technologies. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austin’s personal-fleet evolution.Opinion survey results suggest that most Austinites (63%, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are price, type/class, and fuel economy. Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would consider purchasing a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicle’s emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings.Twenty five-year simulations of Austin’s household vehicle fleet suggest that, under all scenarios modeled, Austin’s vehicle usage levels (measured in total vehicle miles traveled or VMT) are predicted to increase overall, along with average vehicle ownership levels (both per household and per capita). Under a feebate, HEVs, PHEVs and Smart Cars are estimated to represent 25% of the fleet’s VMT by simulation year 25; this scenario is predicted to raise total regional VMT slightly (just 2.32%, by simulation year 25), relative to the trend scenario, while reducing CO₂ emissions only slightly (by 5.62%, relative to trend). Doubling the trend-case gas price to $5/gallon is simulated to reduce the year-25 vehicle use levels by 24% and CO₂ emissions by 30% (relative to trend).Two- and three-vehicle households are simulated to be the highest adopters of HEVs and PHEVs across all scenarios. The combined share of vans, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and cross-over utility vehicles (CUVs) is lowest under the feebate scenario, at 35% (versus 47% in Austin’s current household fleet). Feebate-policy receipts are forecasted to exceed rebates in each simulation year.In the longer term, gas price dynamics, tax incentives, feebates and purchase prices along with new technologies, government-industry partnerships, and more accurate information on range and recharging times (which increase customer confidence in EV technologies) should have added effects on energy dependence and greenhouse gas emissions.     

Development and evaluation of a statistically reliable traffic counting program

This paper reviews the existing procedures to compute the seasonal factors, growth factors, and the number of automatic traffic recorder stations (ATRs) for developing a statistically reliable traffic counting program. The review is based on, (i) theoretical evaluation of the procedures, (ii) analysis of the results obtained from applying these procedures to extensive real life data, and (iii) experience of past researchers with these methods. The paper primarily deals with existing statistical procedures for determining seasonal factors, since it is believed that these factors play the most important role in estimating Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADTs) from short counts. The procedure of cluster analysis (which is most commonly used to determine seasonal factors) is critically reviewed. The shortcomings of this method motivated the development of a different statistical procedure, based on regression analysis, to determine seasonal factors. It is shown that this newly developed method gives better results than the cluster analysis techniques. Furthermore, separate sections are dedicated to a thorough analysis of determination of number of ATR stations and computation of growth factors.     

Evolving competition between Hong Kong and Shenzhen ports

Shenzhen Port (SZP), once a negligible local port, has risen dramatically to a world-leading container port and an “equal” player with Hong Kong Port (HKP). Will this market share reallocation continue, or will equilibrium be eventually realized for HKP to prosper continuously? We examine the relationship between these two ports to answer this question. We propose a new transformation method to describe the growth of container cargo transport demand, define the quantitative measures of the competition relationship and port competitiveness, and present a rigorous analytical framework with econometric tests and models to understand the true relationship between HKP and SZP. Direct empirical tests suggest that SZP complements HKP; however, the two ports exhibit strong competition when the effect of demand growth is excluded. Considering transshipment separately, we find that the impact of SZP on HKP is negative in transshipment but complementary in direct shipment. We may conclude that HKP does not affect SZP, whereas SZP has competitive power over HKP. These results are consistent with the findings of some previous theoretical studies.     

基于GRNN的GSM-R场强覆盖预测算法

在比较Hata模型修正方法和GRNN算法场强覆盖预测效果的基础上,仿真分析了训练集构成和平滑因子选择对GRNN算法预测效果的影响,给出了训练集构成和平滑因子选择的方法;提出了电波传播环境相似系数来表征GRNN模型在不同环境下的适用性。仿真结果表明,两种传播环境的相似系数越大,由一种环境下测试数据确定的GRNN在另一环境下的预测精度越高。     

Asymmetric response model for evaluating airline service quality: An empirical study in cross-strait direct flights

In this paper we propose a framework to investigate service quality asymmetrically. An asymmetric response model within structural equation framework is developed to study the relationship between service quality and the passenger’s behavioral intention in the cross-strait direct flight (Taiwan–Shanghai). The results reveal that service quality in the loss region has more impact on behavioral intention than service quality in the gain region. Hence, attention should be paid to the service quality of important attributes in the loss region and strategies should ensure service quality of those important attributes that meet passenger’s expectations.     

汽车无级变速器传动性能评价系统研究

根据无级变速器电子控制单元的控制算法,结合试验数据,建立了无级变速器(CVT)性能评价系统中的驾驶员模型、发动机模型、无级变速器模型与整车动力学模型。同时给出了各个模型在Simulink中具体的建模方法。最后,针对具体车型,建立了该车型的CVT传动性能的评价系统。     

拉压杆模型在预应力连续梁桥局部分析中的应用

在预应力深梁拉压杆模型的基础上,根据结构局部分析原理,研究提出了预应力连续梁局部等效转化成预应力深梁的局部拉压杆模型分析方法。利用此方法对某预应力连续梁桥局部梁段建立拉压杆模型,验算配筋和强度。结果表明:利用文中提出的方法建立拉压杆模型用于预应力连续梁桥局部分析是合理有效的。