The impact of the Polar Code on risk mitigation in Arctic waters: a “toolbox” for underwriters?

The existing risk weighing on vessel, crew and ecosystem in the Arctic and more globally in Polar waters promoted the adoption of the Polar Code (PC) early 2017, a mandatory international legal framework intended for enhanced safety and environmental protection. While the substance of the PC has been extensively analyzed, few studies have focused on the underlying relationships between the PC and underwriters. Based on an extensive literature review, documentary materials and interviews with insurance companies, this article conceptualizes the PC as a “toolbox” and analyzes how underwriters can exploit it in their work within the emerging Arctic market. The PC does not only regulate the navigation in Arctic waters in legal terms, but is also aimed at mitigating risks in the Polar areas through the identification of hazard sources and proceduralization of risk assessment. As a result we observe a certain “Polar Code paradox”. Even though the PC is a risk-based instrument and constitutes a key step for improving ship insurability, it has only limited capacity to assist underwriters in assessing risks and insuring vessels. Marine insurers still face a lack of data and high pending uncertainties leading them to exercise extreme caution with Arctic risks appraisal.     

浅埋大跨隧道下穿建筑物时的变形控制标准

厦门市机场路一期梧村山隧道,设计为浅埋大跨结构,并要求下穿密集浦南建筑物片区。为控制该区严峻的环境风险,特别是建筑物的变形风险,建立相应的建筑物变形控制标准,通过施工现场试验段、先期施工、开挖、辅助工法的实施,以及全方位的变形监控量测结果,对该控制标准进行工程验证与反馈分析,从而形成可靠、可操作的变形过程控制综合指标,作为下穿建筑物项目风险管理体系的核心要素。研究成果已得到专家组的认可,并在现场开始付诸实施,其控制效果良好。     

海上风机基础防撞设计初探

从分析风机基础可能遭遇的船舶撞击的风险出发,提出了船舶撞击风机基础的概率计算方法。在此基础上提出通过防护成本和撞击损失的比较分析确定撞击标准的方法。进而提出了海上风机基础防撞设计的基本思路,并就风机基础防撞设计所涉及的船舶撞击力的计算方法和风机基础防撞设施的设计和使用进行了阐述。初步阐明了海上风机基础防撞标准的确定方法和海上风机基础防撞设计的思路,可供海上风机基础设计参考。     

工程项目设计风险控制

风险在工程项目中是一个极普遍的现象,随着项目进展的变化,项目的风险源随时间延续和决策问题的减少呈递减规律。设计阶段在整个工程项目建设中属于中前期,因此对设计风险进行控制的重要性便可想而知了。此文对设计阶段的风险因素作了识别与评价,并提出了控制这些风险的具体措施,以期能给设计参与各方在控制设计风险时起到一定的借鉴作用。     

考虑不确定性因素的路径优化(英文)

A route optimization methodology in the frame of an onboard decision support/guidance system for the ship’s master has been developed and is presented in this paper.The method aims at the minimization of the fuel voyage cost and the risks related to the ship’s seakeeping performance expected to be within acceptable limits of voyage duration.Parts of this methodology were implemented by interfacing alternative probability assessment methods,such as Monte Carlo,first order reliability method(FORM) and second order reliability method(SORM),and a 3-D seakeeping code,including a software tool for the calculation of the added resistance in waves of NTUA-SDL.The entire system was integrated within the probabilistic analysis software PROBAN.Two of the main modules for the calculation of added resistance and the probabilistic assessment for the considered seakeeping hazards with respect to exceedance levels of predefined threshold values are herein elaborated and validation studies proved their efficiency in view of their implementation into an on-board optimization system.     

基于熵满意度的多信息协同决策方法

为解决协同决策过程中决策者判断及不同形式信息转化的不确定性,针对决策者给出的区间互反判断矩阵与区间互补判断矩阵2种形式的偏好信息,构造相应群体的满意度函数,建立了以满意度为目标的线性规划模型,并应用熵理论对各群体决策结果进行综合协同,得到决策最优解.实例表明该方法简单易行,可为最终决策提供参考.     

一种改进的快速压缩跟踪算法

为研究目标跟踪问题,构造多种不同尺度的滤波器对目标进行滤波,生成目标高维特征;利用符合有限等距性质要求的稀疏矩阵对高维特征进行采样,获得目标低维特征.采用朴素贝叶斯分类器输出与Bhattacharyya系数乘积的形式作为目标与候选目标之间的相似性度量,并选择最大值所对应的候选目标作为下一帧中的目标.文中提出了一种改进的快速压缩跟踪算法.实验表明,该改进的算法能够对目标进行有效跟踪.     

某型自航半潜船轴系校中分析和安装工艺

根据中国船级社对轴系校中的要求,用传递矩阵法对某自航半潜船轴系进行直线校中、合理校中、安装状态校中计算,并根据计算结果提出轴系校中安装工艺和轴系校中计算的验证方法.     

印尼建筑工程的承包与管理

印尼建筑市场的再次升温为中资企业在印尼建筑市场提供了机遇。结合案例,全面分析印尼市场的特征,剖析印尼建筑工程的承包及风险,以确定印尼建筑工程的管理方向。分析结果表明:印尼建筑市场正在逐步健全,项目的实施总体在可控范围之内,相信印尼市场将成为公司海外战略发展的主导力量。     

船舶推进轴系纵振计算方法及影响因素分析

根据船舶推进轴系纵向振动的运动微分方程,推导了组成推进轴系的刚性均质圆盘、推力轴承以及轴段单元的传递矩阵,给出了利用传递矩阵求解推进轴系纵向振动固有频率和固有振型的方法.为进一步分析推进轴系正常运行时各轴段的纵向振幅和交变轴向力,对刚性均质圆盘、推力轴承以及轴段单元的传递矩阵进行了扩展,进而给出了基于扩展传递矩阵的推进...