邻近建筑物条件下青岛地铁盾构施工风险评价

以往构建的邻近建筑条件下地铁盾构施工风险指标没有考虑指标间的相关性,且忽略专家的犹豫程度,首先从方法创新的角度利用决策实验室法（DEMATEL）确定准则层间综合影响关系,作为控制层结构关系构建网络层次结构模型,求出DEMATEL和ANP相结合的主观混合权重; 再以熵权法求解客观权重,采用主客观权重偏差平方和最小为目标函数求解组合权重; 最后考虑了专家犹豫程度,运用vague集法进行施工风险评价。通过计算得出青岛地铁1号线安安区段风险等级与工程实际相符合,进而验证了该评价方法的实用性。     

Rollover risk prediction of heavy vehicles by reliability index and empirical modelling

This paper focuses on a combination of a reliability-based approach and an empirical modelling approach for rollover risk assessment of heavy vehicles. A reliability-based warning system is developed to alert the driver to a potential rollover before entering into a bend. The idea behind the proposed methodology is to estimate the rollover risk by the probability that the vehicle load transfer ratio (LTR) exceeds a critical threshold. Accordingly, a so-called reliability index may be used as a measure to assess the vehicle safe functioning. In the reliability method, computing the maximum of LTR requires to predict the vehicle dynamics over the bend which can be in some cases an intractable problem or time-consuming. With the aim of improving the reliability computation time, an empirical model is developed to substitute the vehicle dynamics and rollover models. This is done by using the SVM (Support Vector Machines) algorithm. The preliminary obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

基于响应面法及有限元模拟的小半径弯管成形优化

结合响应面法分析与有限元模拟,研究多因子作用、多指标限制下的弯管成形,为船用弯管生产的模具配置提供技术支撑。针对某尺度的小半径弯管,基于四个设计因子,考察起皱率、减薄率及扁平度三个成形指标。利用"中心复合设计"制定试验方案,共进行25次有限元试验;得到指标响应模型,给出因子影响规律及推荐取值;获得主要限制指标及同时满足三重指标的合格区域;验证某优化点,成形指标均满足要求,且与响应面预测值吻合较好。     

Fisheries in Iwaki after the Fukushima Dai'ichi Nuclear Accident: Lessons for Coastal Management under Conditions of High Uncertainty?

This article evaluates factors driving perception of risk and uncertainty in fisheries in Iwaki City, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, following the Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear accident. Particular attention is paid to lessons that may be learned for managing uncertainties and risks in coastal management more generally. The 2011 accident has had profound effects on Fukushima fisheries. Commercial coastal fisheries have been stopped since, and efforts to understand and monitor the effects of marine radioactive contamination on produce from the sea continue. Small-scale trial fisheries have, however, re-commenced with a view to gradually re-starting Fukushima fisheries over time. Drawing on in-depth interviews, discussion groups, and field observations from Iwaki and Fukushima Prefecture more widely, three factors are discussed: the role of trusted local-level points of contact; the value of transparent monitoring and screening that acknowledges remaining limitations and uncertainties; and the importance of taking seriously the cultural dimensions of rapid and potentially irreversible environmental change.     

船舶空调负荷动态与稳态算法比较与分析

基于热反应系数法,重点考虑太阳辐射和航速的影响,构建了船舶空调动态负荷计算模型。以某远洋航线的典型工况,选取船舶居住舱室为研究对象,应用动态和稳态方法,分别计算分析了其空调负荷变化规律。结果表明,动态算法得出的围壁传热、窗户得热、人员和照明散热冷负荷、新风冷负荷、舱室总冷负荷仅分别为稳态算法数值的45.4%、35.2%、40.2%、39.7%和40.6%,用动态负荷计算模型可以实时掌握船舶空调负荷变化规律。     

水下转塔生产系统解脱过程中的水动力特性研究

考虑到南海的恶劣海况对系统立管以及锚链的水动力作用,通过数值计算与Orcaflex模拟了水下转塔生产系统在解脱过程中的动态响应,并分析了恶劣海况对系统解脱过程中各参数的影响,所得结果对水下转塔生产系统的实际应用具有指导性意义。     

自升式平台拖航工况下运动响应预报

拖航工况是自升式平台结构安全评估的重要工况之一,惯性载荷是拖航工况评估中必须考虑的载荷之一,其计算通常依靠假定平台做简谐运动来实现,而这种假定是否可靠是未知的。为确定拖航工况下自升式平台所遭受的惯性载荷,文中利用SESAM软件及线性势流理论直接数值求解平台的运动响应RAO,并对垂荡、横摇和纵摇进行预报,将预报结果与简谐运动的假定进行比较。根据比较可知,简谐运动的假定是非常保守的假定。     

定位桩式游艇码头在波浪及靠泊作用下的动力响应

游艇码头在国内是一种较新的结构形式,为便于上下游艇,游艇码头为浮动式结构,定位桩是应用较多的一种锚固形式。由于全直桩情况下水平荷载引起的位移较大,浮码头自身质量又较小,在受到简谐波浪荷载或船舶靠泊撞击的冲击荷载时,易引起码头结构的动力响应,从而增加了定位桩的内力、降低了结构安全性。在强迫动力响应理论基础上,结合有限元的方法分析定位桩式游艇码头在波浪荷载及靠泊撞击力下的动力响应,并推导出适合游艇码头结构段使用的简化计算方法,为设计工作提供了依据。     

国外海洋结构物安全性评估技术

通过对国外海上结构物安全性评估模式、评估实例及评估动向的调研,探究国外在以海上石油/燃气作业平台、浮式机场以及浮式风力发电装置为对象的海洋结构物安全性评估理念、思路及方法。     

空爆载荷下舱壁新型加筋结构形式研究

采用非线性瞬态动力学分析软件MSC.Dytran,以某舰船舱壁为研究对象,对其进行单层舱壁结构设计分析。根据结构加筋形式的不同,将舱壁结构分为三角管型舱壁、半圆管型舱壁及方管型舱壁3种。利用MSC.Dytran,对不同舱壁结构形式在空爆载荷作用下的能量吸收、变形和加速度等响应进行数值模拟研究。通过对新型设计的舱壁结构与传统板筋舱壁结构的动态响应分析比较发现,方管型舱壁的抗爆抗冲击效果相对较优。