公路运输统计工作存在的问题及改进措施

公路运输统计是整个社会经济统计的重要组成部分，也是道路运输管理的基础工作。公路运输统计为部门宏观调控、制定政策提供决策和依据。文章从统计指标、统计工作适应性、统计制度、协调运作、手段和技术及人员等方面论述了我国目前公路运输统计工作中存在的问题，并提出建议。     

Biofuel futures in road transport – A modeling analysis for Sweden

First and second generation biofuels are among few low-carbon alternatives for road transport that currently are commercially available or in an early commercialization phase. They are thus potential options for meeting climate targets in the medium term. For the case of Sweden, we investigate cost-efficient use of biofuels in road transport under system-wide CO₂ reduction targets to 2050, and the effects of implementation of targets for an almost fossil-free road transport sector to 2030. We apply the bottom-up, optimization MARKAL_Sweden model, which covers the entire Swedish energy system including the transport sector. For CO₂ reductions of 80% to 2050 in the Swedish energy system as a whole, the results of the main scenario show an annual growth rate for road transport biofuels of about 6% from 2010 to 2050, with biofuels accounting for 78% of road transport final energy use in 2050. The preferred biofuel choices are methanol and biomethane. When introducing additional fossil fuel phase-out policies in road transport (−80% to 2030), a doubling of the growth rate to 2030 is required and system CO₂ abatement costs increases by 6% for the main scenario. Results imply that second generation biofuels, along with energy-efficient vehicle technologies such as plug-in hybrids, can be an important part of optimized system solutions meeting stringent medium-term climate targets.     

Valuing crowding in public transport: Implications for cost-benefit analysis

This paper investigates the valuation of crowding in public transport trips and its implications in demand estimation and cost-benefit analysis. We use a choice-based stated preference survey where crowding levels are represented by means of specially designed pictures, and use these data to estimate flexible discrete choice models. We assume that the disutility associated with travelling under crowded conditions is proportional to travel time. Our results are consistent with and extend previous findings in the literature: passenger density has a significant effect on the utility of travelling by public transport; in fact, the marginal disutility of travel time in a crowded vehicle (6 standing-passengers/m²) is 2.5 times higher than in a vehicle with available seats. We also compare the effects of different policies for improving bus operations, and the effect of adding crowding valuation in cost-benefit analysis. In doing that, we endogenise the crowding level as the result of the equilibrium between demand and supplied bus capacity. Our results indicate that important benefits may be accrued from policies designed to reduce crowding, and that ignoring crowding effects significantly overestimate the bus travel demand the benefits associated with pure travel time reductions.     

楚雄市公共交通现状及对策研究

针对楚雄市城市交通的发展,通过实地调查、问卷调查、跟车调查等方法,在分析楚雄市公交现状概况、居民出行方式结构基本特征、公交线路网基本特征、公交客流基本特征的基础上,分析楚雄市公共交通发展存在的问题,并提出相应的对策.     

Editorial Comment

This article examines fundamental questions concerning the origins and evolution of academic transport studies and the dynamics of its historical development. These fundamental questions are generally little discussed, yet are vital in gaining a better understanding of how the subject is driven forward. This article therefore attempts to answer these questions by taking the UK as a case study, with the principal method being evidence from semi-structured interviews with 20 senior figures integrally involved in the development of the subject. The characterization of transport studies provided by Allsop is employed as an analytical framework, enabling the construction of a historical narrative that can provide salient insights. Thus, it is argued that for academic transport studies the degree of early cross-fertilization with public arenas has meant that subsequent developments have been shaped by the subject's contextual environment. Most prominent among these developments has been the trend towards wider disciplinary breadth. This article examines the evolution of these processes, while the concluding section discusses their implications for consequent strengths and limitations of the subject.     

面向传染病疫情防控的公共交通运行管理决策支持研究

近年来全球新发重大传染病疫情不断出现，已成为人类社会必须防范应对的重大风险。公共交通在传染病疫情防控过程中承担着阻断病毒传播和保障复工复产的功能，疫情期间公共交通运行管理的决策需求和技术支撑体系与日常情况有显著差异。现有研究多针对公交日常运行决策需求展开，虽有少量针对突发公共事件的应急管理决策支持的研究，但多针对自然灾害和事故灾难场景，无法迁移应用于传染病疫情防控。基于此，以新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情为例，综合考虑突发公共卫生事件应急管理流程和疫情防控实际情况，系统梳理疫情不同阶段的防控目标和决策需求，提出一种面向传染病疫情防控的公共交通运行管理决策支持系统框架，建立基于公共卫生事件案例库、多源数据融合库、公交数据分析技术库和公交防疫策略库的功能架构，并设计不同功能模块的算法模型。研究以厦门为例，对提出的决策支持系统的功能架构和算法模型进行验证。研究结果表明，构建公交乘客出行链的成功率为89.7%，并可应用于疫情不同阶段的关联客流分析、感染者同乘人员的追溯分析、医护人员等防疫人员的通勤出行识别、公交运行满载率监控等方面。研究成果不仅对传染病疫情防控有实用价值，而且对突发公共事件应急管理决策支持方法亦有理论贡献。     

Classification of Livebus arrivals user behavior

With the increasing use of Intelligent Transport Systems, large amounts of data are created. Innovative information services are introduced and new forms of data are available, which could be used to understand the behavior of travelers and the dynamics of people flows. This work analyzes the requests for real-time arrivals of bus routes at stops in London made by travelers using Transport for London's LiveBus Arrivals system. The available dataset consists of about one million requests for real-time arrivals for each of the 28 days under observation. These data are analyzed for different purposes. LiveBus Arrivals users are classified based on a set of features and using K-Means, Expectation Maximization, Logistic regression, One-level decision tree, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) by Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO). The results of the study indicate that the LiveBus Arrivals requests can be classified into six main behaviors. It was found that the classification-based approaches produce better results than the clustering-based ones. The most accurate results were obtained with the SVM-SMO methodology (Precision of 97%). Furthermore, the behavior within the six classes of users is analyzed to better understand how users take advantage of the LiveBus Arrivals service. It was found that the 37% of users can be classified as interchange users. This classification could form the basis of a more personalized LiveBus Arrivals application in future, which could support management and planning by revealing how public transport and related services are actually used or update information on commuters.     

新冠肺炎疫情下城市公共交通非常规防疫策略——以宁波市为例

在国家重大突发疫情面前，城市公共交通具有保障出行与阻断疫情的双重责任。面对新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎（简称新冠肺炎，COVID-19）疫情，城市公共交通既要保证有效运输，又要降低疫情扩散的风险。地铁和常规公交是城市公共交通系统不可缺少的一部分，在城市公共交通中占据重要地位。针对宁波市城市公共交通系统中存在的防疫问题，提出了基于问题驱动的城市公共交通非常规防疫策略。研究结果表明：新冠肺炎疫情形势下，城市公共交通系统防疫需要启动应急响应机制，遵循分区分类防控的基本原则，在保障人们刚性出行需求的同时，必须阻断疫情传播，减少通过公共交通运输造成的交叉感染，实现疫情可防可控。除体温检测、佩戴口罩与洗手消毒等防疫措施之外，还应结合地方实际和风险评估等级采取非常规的组合防疫策略，即：①面向城市常规公交，建议采取网格化运营策略、需求响应式运营策略以及应急公交接驳策略；②面向城市轨道交通，建议采取3级组合防疫策略，即暂停运营策略、车厢隔离防疫策略以及需求响应式防疫策略。以上常规公交与轨道交通的多种组合防疫策略需根据疫情的发展情况动态调整，及时启动相应级别的公共交通应急预案，被动防御与主动防控相结合，积极发挥城市公共交通在疫情时期的交通骨干作用和应急保障作用。     

Gantry crane operations to transfer containers between trains: A simulation study of a Spanish terminal

Freight transfer operations are critical in combined transport networks. In this paper a simulation model and modelling approach to the transfer of cargo between trains at rail terminals is presented. The model is used to study the Port-Bou terminal, the main intermodal terminal at the Spanish-French frontier. Four different gantry crane operation modes to interchange containers between trains are evaluated. These operation rules are tested in several scenarios to examine the critical factors of the system and the best operation rule for each situation. Latest generation software is used to develop the model that incorporates modular programming and enhanced graphic systems for output representation. It allows a dynamic display of the simulated system and, likewise, the possibility of developing modules that can be reused in other studies. The research shows how simulation can be a useful planning tool in the rail transportation context.     

Energy savings in transport

A decade of increasing Federal attention to urban transportation needs has culminated in the 1970 Urban Mass Transportation Assistance Act. This Act is intended to provide 10 thousand million dollars over the next 12 years in Federal assistance money to urban public transportation systems. This paper examines the needs of selected U.S. cities as a basis for (1) understanding the vast, various and complex transportation needs of urban areas throughout the country, and (2) assessing the sufficiency of these funds. The sample cities have been placed into three broad categories based on the state of development of their transportation systems. In Category I cities, the essential need is to ensure the survival of bus systems for the use of non‐drivers, or to provide some other viable alternative to the automobile; in Category II cities, the primary needs are to relieve auto congestion and to improve public transportation components, while in Category III cities, the primary need is massive investment to improve and to extend public transportation facilities. It is concluded that the presently intended Federal funding level for transportation will not meet the financial requirements of the Category III cities.