基于协整理论的内河航运发展与区域经济增长关系的实证分析

为了揭示内河航运发展与区域经济增长之间的关系以及二者的作用机制,以重庆市"内河运输-区域经济"复合系统1985-2009年的数据为研究对象,建立了基于协整理论的自回归分布滞后模型和vAR模型,并进行了脉冲响应分析.研究结果表明,内河航运发展与区域经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系,内河航运的发展对区域经济增长具有较强的拉动作用,并且这种作用力度长期明显强于短期.区域经济的增长不能自发带动内河航运的发展,甚至对内河航运发展具有抑制效应.最后根据实证分析结论,给出了相应的政策建议.     

公路交通投资与经济增长的关系

区域公路交通投资与经济增长之间相互影响的课题是交通领域中未解决的问题之一.基于格兰杰因果关系检验的基本原理与回归分析方法建立数学模型研究区域公路交通投资与经济增长之间的内在依存关系.经济发展的不同阶段,区域的公路交通投资与GDP总量之间均存在着互为因果关系.相同阶段经济增长与公路交通投资的相互之间推动作用不同.1978...     

客运综合枢纽功能区布设与人性化设计研究

在考虑人的心理需求的前提下,对客运综合枢纽候车空间以及站前广场的人均使用面积新的推算,并得出了新的计算值。在分析客运综合枢纽功能区布设一般方法的基础上,给出了主要功能区布设的推荐方法;并对客运综合枢纽客流聚集空间以及信息诱导设施的人性化设计要点进行研究。提出使用基于AHP与DEA综合赋权的层次分析法对客运综合枢纽功能区布设与人性化设计的合理性进行评价。     

基于时刻表的公交网络随机用户均衡配流算法研究

提高公共交通规划管理及信息化水平,需要制定科学的公交规划管理策略,公交客流分配是公交规划与管理的核心内容之一。为促进公交配流理论研究,提高公交客流分配结果科学性,分析了国内外公交配流研究现状,对于城市广义公交网络,结合公交时刻表,定义了公交连接、连接片段以及吸引连接集合,建立了容量限制下基于时刻表的公交网络随机用户均衡配流算法（VRT-SUE）,对算法原理和求解步骤进行了探讨。构建实例公交网络进行分析测试,配流结果显示该模型能够很好的反映出出发时间、到达时间、换乘次数及费用等对乘客公交出行的影响,算法是合理和有效的。     

基于MNL模型的有轨电车出行选择行为研究

以现代有轨电车在上海建设试验线为背景,就市民出行方式的选择意愿进行了调查,在此基础上建立了多项Logit模型,研究了有轨电车的引入对市民出行方式选择的影响,明确了影响市民选择出行方式的关键因素为薪资收入、出行准点要求以及出行距离,进而指出了有轨电车在城市交通系统中的功能定位,并就如何提供现代有轨电车乃至城市公共交通的分担率提出了建议。     

When are subsidies to trans-European network projects justified?

The trans-European transport network (TEN-T) encompasses the major planned transport infrastructure in Europe, ranging from high speed rail to port infrastructure. Projects in this category are considered priority projects and receive European subsidies; but these have been insufficient to get these projects off the ground. This paper addresses two research questions. First, it sketches the basic economics of cross-boundary infrastructure projects: what pricing and investment policies can we expect, what is the role of through traffic and high fixed costs of infrastructure? Second, it examines briefly what lessons the EU could draw from the experience of other existing federal funding institutions like the US and Germany. These ideas are used to propose a new subsidy scheme for the TEN-T projects.     

Modal-split effects of climate change: The effect of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area

Future climate change is expected to affect inland waterway transport in most main natural waterways in Europe. For the river Rhine it is expected that, in summer, more and longer periods with low water levels will occur. In periods of low water levels inland waterway vessels have to reduce their load factors and, as a result, transport prices per tonne will increase. One possible consequence of these higher transport prices is a deterioration of the competitive position of inland waterway transport compared with rail and road transport, and thus a change in modal split. We study this issue using a GIS-based software model called NODUS which provides a tool for the detailed analysis of freight transportation over extensive multimodal networks. We assess the effect of low water levels on the costs of transport operations for inland waterway transport in North West Europe under several climate scenarios. It turns out, that the effect on the modal split is limited. Under the most extreme climate scenario, inland waterway transport would lose about 5.4% of the quantity that is currently being transported annually in the part of the European inland waterway transport market considered. The very dry year of 2003 can be seen as an analogue for this scenario.     

Autonomous vehicle control systems for safe crossroads

This article presents a cooperative manoeuvre among three dual mode cars – vehicles equipped with sensors and actuators, and that can be driven either manually or autonomously. One vehicle is driven autonomously and the other two are driven manually. The main objective is to test two decision algorithms for priority conflict resolution at intersections so that a vehicle autonomously driven can take their own decision about crossing an intersection mingling with manually driven cars without the need for infrastructure modifications. To do this, the system needs the position, speeds, and turning intentions of the rest of the cars involved in the manoeuvre. This information is acquired via communications, but other methods are also viable, such as artificial vision. The idea of the experiments was to adjust the speed of the manually driven vehicles to force a situation where all three vehicles arrive at an intersection at the same time.     

The melting Arctic and its impact on China’s maritime transport

The shrinking of Arctic ice triggers off a new round of competition and dispute in this region, among traditional Arctic states and non-Arctic actors. Like its East Asia neighbours, China sees the melting Arctic Ocean a unique opportunity for itself and international trade generally. The changing physical landscape of the Arctic region will certainly have a major impact on China’s economic future which is very dependent on international shipping. This paper assesses the impact of the ice-free Arctic on the development of marine transport industry in China. The author discusses the potential new routes with the Arctic’s melting and the opportunities that it brings to China’s maritime transportation industry. Challenges that China faces in future shipping through the Arctic will be also addressed from political, legal, economic and environmental dimensions, followed by a preliminary exploration of ways to solution of these challenges.     

汕头港广澳港区防波堤工程波浪输沙及对濠江河口影响研究

依据外海1 a期波浪观测资料,采用沿岸输沙公式及波浪数学模型方法对海湾内波浪沿岸输沙及岸线变形情况进行研究。计算结果表明,防波堤工程实施后,改变了濠江河口附近原有波浪动力条件和净输沙方向,西侧岬湾两头将发生淤积,岬湾中部发生侵蚀,约5 a后,岸线将会与河口西侧的两个小岛相连,形成连岛沙堤。