基于优化灰色神经网络模型预测公交换乘需求量的换乘枢纽选址

根据公交换乘枢纽换乘量的生成特点和影响交通换乘量的主要组成因素,研究发现交通换乘量具有“小样本、贫信息”的灰色特征,为此提出了一种基于灰色软计算的换乘需求量预测方法.该方法利用灰色系统原理建立灰色神经网络系统预测模型,通过采用遗传算法改进神经网络的性能,提高系统预测的精度.以兰州市市区公共交通枢纽规划为例,结合实际的道路交通调查数据,运用该方法对提出的交通枢纽方案进行了实证分析与评价.结果表明:改进的灰色神经网络能有效地改善预测精度;运用GA-GNN模型求解道路交通中的非线性问题对提高决策水平具有较大的现实意义.     

城市出租客运行业特性与政府规制分析

针对当前出租客运行业存在的群体性事件多发、打车难、经营行为不规范等问题,重点研究如何构建完善的政府规制体系.为阐述出租客运行业结构和市场特征,更加真实地揭示行业运行规律,对出租客运的服务对象进行了分类,并结合对政府规制的理论研究和规制效果的经验式观察,论证了不同的规制策略在出租客运行业的效果、效率和成本.在对出租客运行业管理中,数量、价格、服务和行为是政府规制的4个关键环节.对此4方面的规制原则、类型、手段和范围进行深入的探讨与评析,有助于构建完善合理的出租汽车规制体系.研究结果表明,信息和规则等因素决定了巡游式出租客运市场不具备完全竞争条件,在诸方面进行适度的规制是出租客运行业的合理选择.     

BRT and BHLS around the world: Explosive growth,large positive impacts and many issues outstanding

A survey of Bus Rapid Transit BRT and Bus of High Level of Service BHLS around the world indicates that there are about 120 cities with bus corridors, with 99 of the cities entering into the list in the last 12 years. The existing bus corridors comprise about 280 corridors, 4300 km, 6700 stations and use 30,000 buses, serving about 28 million passengers per day. In 2010–2011, 19 cities completed new systems − 16 in the developing world – and seven cities expanded their current systems. By late 2011, about 49 new cities were building systems, 16 cities were expanding their corridors, and 31 cities were in initial planning. This impressive growth may be attributed in part to the successes of Curitiba, Bogotá, México City, Istanbul, Ahmedabad and Guangzhou. These cities show low cost, rapid implementation and high performance BRTs, with significant positive externalities. Interesting trends are emerging, such as the implementation of citywide integrated bus systems, improved processes for private participation in operations, increased funding from national governments, and growth of bus manufacturers and technology providers. Despite the growth, there are some outstanding issues: BRT and BHLS do not have a single meaning and image and are often regarded as a “second best” as compared to rail alternatives. In addition several systems in the developing world suffer problems resulting from poor planning, implementation and operation, due to financial, institutional and regulatory constraints. The BRT and BHLS Industry are in their “infancy” and there is need for consolidation and concerted effort.     

Part 1. National road safety performance: Data,the emergence of two single-outcome modeling streams and public health

This first part of the state-of-the art focuses on the origins of road safety modeling, covering data, early models and the public health context of model formulation and use.     

Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance

The third part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the future of road safety modeling and on conjectures concerning the evolution of national safety indicators. In the absence of econometric developments specific to road safety modeling, the research future must rely on pre-existing statistical procedures of econometrics applied to discrete/count and to aggregate data. In terms of contents, growing interest in the heterogeneity of road accident outcomes by category of victims could lead to treatments of this issue across research streams, say by top-down and bottom-up developments, but this speculation does not rest on extant adequate formulations of the issue of road user class and victim analysis. But understanding the time profile of aggregate national performance indicators is quite another matter.     

The impact of the application of new technology on public transport service provision and the passenger experience: A focus on implementation in Australia

The emergence of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) has been recognised with many initiatives during the last 20 years. In Europe, the “ITS Action Plan” identifies a number of applications as key elements contributing to the efficient co-ordination of the overall transport chain. The context and experience surrounding the recent widespread development of technological tools and ICT platforms to support the emergence of ITS are notable for the way in which they permeate the transport and logistics chain. But a key question remains: to what extent is the public transport sector able to exploit the wider benefits of ITS?     

TransMilenio BRT system in Bogota,high performance and positive impact – Main results of an ex-post evaluation

The paper presents the main characteristics, costs and impacts of TransMilenio, the bus based mass transit system of Bogotá, using BRT corridors and feeder services. An ex-post cost-benefit analysis is done, including monetary valuation of direct impacts on travel time and travel cost and externalities, such as improved road safety and air quality. Impacts on crime, land values, employment and tax revenue are also presented. The results are positive and robust; nevertheless, it is important to recognize that user perception has declined and there is urgent need to introduce service improvements. The paper also includes an ex-ante evaluation of the projected expansion using current costs, which indicates the need to limit construction capital costs. The results are an indication of the potential of BRT, and the evaluation methodology is applicable to other transit projects.     

Rail and multi-modal transport

This paper elaborates on the definitions of inter and multi-modal transport, as well as their differences in terms of performance. A survey of the barriers, both internal and external, to an efficient intermodal transport is included followed by an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of combining rail transport with the other transport modes. Transhipment technologies for efficient freight service and some examples of freight rail corridors between sea and inland terminals are presented. The integration between air and rail transport is discussed and the potential synergies between air and high-speed rail services are emphasised. The paper concludes with a discussion on energy use for sustainable rail performance.     

Comparisons of urban transport sustainability: Lessons from West and North Africa

The diagnosis for urban transport sustainability depends on the context of different regions worldwide. We focus in this paper on West and North Africa which reveal similarities but also structural differences which are explored further. The importance of paratransit in its various forms is strongly observed in sub-Saharan Africa and to a lesser extent in North Africa. The attempts to regulate and organise this sector have been difficult; one interesting experience in Dakar occurred during a programme of fleet renewal. In parallel it is observed that there are positive but insufficient experiences of public transport authorities in some cities (Dakar, Abidjan) and similar projects postponed in other cities because of the institutional problems. One also observes the constant difficulties of designing sustainable schemes for bus companies. An answer to this crisis has been found in North Africa, through investment in new mass transport systems. However, mass transport projects in West Africa are very weak in comparison. The gap between public transport costs and income levels there remains a major obstacle to sustainable mobility exacerbated by the poverty of a significant part of the urban population in West Africa. Two other critical factors are also identified affecting sustainable mobility requirements, namely, the urban sprawl and increasing energy costs. Finally the conclusion recommends the use of research and expertise networks in order to help the design and the implementation of suited solutions.     

干散货航运企业是“去库存”或“去产能”

证实了干散货运输是国际贸易的派生需求,并根据派生需求理论,建立了干散货市场与国际贸易过原点的回归模型.通过引用联合国统计数据,利用社会科学统计软件包(SPSS软件),计算获得国际贸易与干散货船舶运输需求的相关性系数.并根据该相关系数计算知,2012-2014年间,干散货市场的供给与需求之间存在较大缺口,即干散货市场的船舶供给过剩达到14％左右.到2014年之前,干散货市场很难消化已有的存量船舶.因而对于干散货市场的航运企业在未来几年的策略是“去产能”.