A methodological approach for developing and assessing business models for flexible transport systems

Flexible transport services include a wide range of demand responsive transport systems that provide non-conventional passenger and freight transportation services. Several alternative business models varying according to the local market conditions, the socio-economic, legal, and institutional framework may be developed for the provision of Flexible Transport Systems (FTS). The objective of this paper is twofold: first to present an integrated methodological framework for developing and assessing alternative FTS business models and second to demonstrate its applicability to a case study regarding the prioritization of alternative FTS business models for the provision of flexible passenger transport services in Helsinki.

Lane changing intention recognition based on speech recognition models

Poor driving habits such as not using turn signals when changing lanes present a major challenge to advanced driver assistance systems that rely on turn signals. To address this problem, we propose a novel algorithm combining the hidden Markov model (HMM) and Bayesian filtering (BF) techniques to recognize a driver’s lane changing intention. In the HMM component, the grammar definition is inspired by speech recognition models, and the output is a preliminary behavior classification. As for the BF component, the final behavior classification is produced based on the current and preceding outputs of the HMMs. A naturalistic data set is used to train and validate the proposed algorithm. The results reveal that the proposed HMM–BF framework can achieve a recognition accuracy of 93.5% and 90.3% for right and left lane changing, respectively, which is a significant improvement compared with the HMM-only algorithm. The recognition time results show that the proposed algorithm can recognize a behavior correctly at an early stage.     

Measuring community reaction to urban transportation impacts using Von Neumann‐Morgenstern utility theory

This paper attempts to measure the impacts of urban transportation system improvements or changes on the community. The community's perceptions of the impacts are represented by its utilities (or disutilities) over various ranges of values of the multiple attributes representing these impacts. The utility technique used in the evaluation is based upon von Neumann‐Morgenstern (vN‐M, 1947) Utility Theory, and is applied using Raiffa's (1970) Fractile Method.

The paper specifically applies the technique to model the perceptions of five subgroups within a community to the impact of a new light rail transit system that is being incorporated in the transportation system of the City of Calgary.

Results of the modeling indicate explicitly how the community changes its perception over ranges of values of the attributes evaluated. Biases of various subgroups within the community over these attributes are also shown. Statistical tests indicate that aggregated utility perceptions can represent the utility perceptions of the individual subgroups quite reasonably.     

Women’s mode and trip structure choices in daily activity-travel: a developing country perspective

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we analyze the travel patterns of Iranian women, where typical patriarchal views and specific social and cultural norms may differ from the patterns of those in western societies. In addition to inherent psycho-physical gender differences, women in Iran can face special constraints forcing them not to be involved in all activity-travel patterns that people in developed countries usually undertake. We pay special attention to the role of marital and employment status on women’s activity-travel patterns. To this end, we develop a joint mode and daily activity pattern (DAP) discrete choice model, which is a two-level mixed nested Logit. The upper nest of the proposed model embodies women’s DAP choices, and the lower nest belongs to the mode choices. In this paper, we try to show how different factors in a patriarchal Muslim society like Iran affect or restrict women’s type and structure of activity-travel patterns.     

The treatment of traffic in the Dutch environmental outlooks: the role of science in policy making and policy evaluation

The Dutch National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection publishes Environmental Outlooks in which 25‐year projections are made. These Outlooks quantifying the environmental problems, form the scientific basis for Dutch environmental policy. Traffic and transport is one of the main sectors causing environmental problems. The emissions and energy use of all relevant categories (road traffic, non‐road traffic) are based on model simulations with models. This paper describes the main models used.

If present policy is implemented only a minority of the environmental targets will be met.

If a sustainable transport system for the Netherlands means a large reducton in CO₂ emissions and energy use after 2010 a stronger emphasis on both technical and non‐technical measures (such as land‐use planning combined with public transport improvements) for the period until 2010 is needed than proposed in the Second Transport Structure Plan, unless a sustainable energy source becomes available.     

混输原油管道优化运行技术研究

针对长吉输油管线采用混合输送方式输送俄罗斯原油和大庆原油及该管线的工程实际,以总运行费用最小为原则,以各站进站温度和开泵方案为决策变量,建立了该管线优化运行的数学模型,采用穷举法穷举出各种可能的开泵方案作为外层嵌套,将进站温度的优化作为内层嵌套求解该模型。通过某天实际运行方案和优化运行方案对比可以看出,优化运行方案总费用降低7%。     

基于频域分析的高速列车侧风倾覆机理

侧风作用下列车的动态环境以轮轨相互作用为主向,以空气动力作用为主演变,列车的侧风倾覆行为成为威胁列车行车安全性的主要诱因. 首先,采用精细化车-轨耦合模型开展列车侧风倾覆的频域特性分析,以明确侧风倾覆响应对列车模型的敏感性;基于考虑模态特性的频域分析框架,推导脉动风及轨道不平顺与列车倾覆动力响应间的传递函数,结合相应参数进行分析,以直观揭示列车的侧风倾覆机理. 结果表明：列车倾覆行为受绕车体下心侧滚模态和车体沉浮模态控制影响,其风荷载影响要明显大于轨道不平顺;在轨道不平顺激励下,第一阶模态贡献主要由轨向不平顺引起,第二阶模态贡献主要由高低不平顺引起,在脉动风荷载激励下,其顺风向脉动风分量起主要贡献;车速、风速和风向角的增大都会引起列车动力响应的增大,进而降低列车安全运营时的最大允许风速;失效概率的增大会降低动力响应的极值,进而提高安全运营风速.

     

融合视角下市域轨道交通线路规划模型

市域存在小时达与沿线通勤等多样化客流需求,而轨道交通线路结构性供给却不足。为解决多样化线路整合规划(融合)问题,以线路站点选择、发车频率、速度配置、站间客流分配量为决策变量,构建线路区间容量空余时数目标函数,以衡量系统运营成本这一较难计算的指标。同时,构建乘客总在车时间目标函数,考虑客流需求、线路容量、站间距与速度等级之间的约束关系,基于目标函数最小化原则,提出融合视角下的市域轨道交通线路规划模型。采用带模拟退火机制的自适应大邻域搜索算法(SA-ALNS)对模型进行求解,并通过与数学求解方法对比证明了算法寻优的速度优势,与不含模拟退火机制的ALNS求解性能的对比证明了算法在求解全局最优解上的优势。研究结果表明：与既有方案相比,模型规划的线路方案区间容量空余时数降低了16.5%,乘客总在车时间降低了32%,总目标优化了26.8%,证明了模型的有效性。模型在目标1与2冲突的情况下,能够找到系统的帕累托均衡解,证明了模型的多目标优化能力。同时模型对其他通道的线路规划方案也显著优于既有方案,证明了模型的适用性。该模型为市域轨道交通线路规划提供理论支撑,有助于加快市域轨道交通建设。     

基于拟合优度度量的交通方式选择决策树结构研究

Nested-Logit(ＮＬ)模型是交通方式划分的最重要的模型之一,在分析公共交通和个人交通划分方法的理论依据的基础上,根据人们在选择交通方式过程中首要考虑因素的不同,构造了不同于公共交通和个人交通的虚拟交通方式--高费用和低费用虚拟交通方式,并分析其内相关性. 在两个交通方式选择决策树结构都存在相关性和合理性的情况下,提出基于拟合优度度量比较两者的优劣,从而选定交通方式选择决策树结构. 根据实例旅客出行调查数据,利用SAS软件实现两个交通方式选择决策树结构的拟合度度量分析. 结果表明：基于拟合优度度量选定的高费用和低费用虚拟交通方式比公共交通和个人交通的虚拟交通方式更接近实际调查值,此方法具有一定的实用性.     

基于异构模型的铁路出发旅客衔接时间价值

旅客时间价值是开展区域综合交通一体化研究的重要参数.本文针对现有文献中铁路旅客衔接时间价值研究较少、异构模型计算结果的比较不够充分等问题,以成都铁路东客站出发旅客衔接方式选择SP数据为依托,建立了MNL、ML、LCL、Hybrid等异构模型,对异构模型所得旅客个体和样本总体的等候时间价值、车内时间价值进行了比较.结果表明：模型结构对时间价值求解有较大影响,ML中单侧三角分布模型求解结果较为合理;Hybrid模型在拟合效果上表现优良,但在个体等候时间价值求解结果中呈现出较为明显的偏态性,给总体统计描述带来一定的困难.由于目前尚无关于时间价值的明确比选方法,应用中可考虑取异构模型计算结果的均值.