Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

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为了适应经济发展，我国许多城市加快了轨道交通的建设步伐。私营公司与政府签订合作协议，共同参与运营管理，这打破了以往一家运营商的垄断局面。如何在保证高质量的运营效率的同时，兼顾各家运营商的收益分配，运费清分的研究显得十分重要。本文分析了影响清分的主要因素和原则，建立有效路径选择模型和基于概率的多路径选择模型。采用改进的遍历算法以保证有效路径集的完整性。利用c++程序计算出各条路径的分担比例和各家运营商的清分比例，给出了提高清分比例的研究结论和建议。     

桥墩主动防船撞系统的研究

为确保桥梁水域桥墩安全与船舶通航安全,通过对长江水域船舶通航环境与水域安全现状以及船撞桥事故统计分析,提出开展桥墩主动防船撞系统研究的必要性。利用船舶操纵理论与船间水动力干扰相关理论,建立了船间临界失控水动力干扰模型,并据此建立了桥墩主动防船撞系统,将桥墩由被动结构防船撞转变为非结构主动防船撞,并在此基础上开发出了桥墩主动防船撞系统原型。创新之处在于,首次利用船舶操纵理论与船间水动力干扰相关理论,建立了船间临界失控水动力干扰模型,首次将桥墩的被动防撞转变为桥墩主动防撞,并开发出桥墩主动防船撞系统原型。     

强迫布鲁塞尔振子相图的研究

针对强迫布鲁塞尔振子模型的Ｆａｒｅｙ序列与Ｍ．Ｓ．Ｓ序列进行了扩大区域的研究，表明单峰映中看成圆映象的近似，并建立了圆映象的相图，单峰映象的相图及符号动力学间的关系。     

舰舰导弹对敌水面舰艇突防能力评估模型初探

舰舰导弹是对水面舰艇攻击的主要武器之一,导弹突防能力是评价导弹性能的重要指标.根据反导武器系统的特点,建立了单发和多发导弹对敌舰攻击的突防能力模型.     

干扰功率控制技术在雷达抗干扰测试中的应用

研究基于等效模型的功率控制方法在雷达抗干扰性能测试中的技术应用。介绍了功率控制技术的提出背景和技术特点,重点分析了功率控制的等效模型和设计方法。详细叙述了功率控制技术在雷达抗干扰测试中的一个典型应用。     

不可压缩液体中自由气核分叉特性研究

空化气泡会引起强烈的声辐射和舰船壳体振动,自由气核振动的跨临界分叉研究对寻求空化气泡的生成机理具有重要意义.通过建立不可压缩液体中自由气核的振动模型,由中心流形定理对该振动模型进行约化,得出中心流形上的跨临界分叉方程,通过该振动模型的分叉研究,提出了产生气泡的新机理,并进行了仿真实验加以验证.仿真结果表明,跨临界分叉是自由气核产生气泡的一条途径.     

Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models

A hybrid approach for eutrophication assessment in estuarine and coastal ecosystems is presented. The ASSETS screening model (http://www.eutro.org) classifies eutrophication status into five classes: High (better), Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad (worse). This model was applied to a dataset from a shallow coastal barrier island system in southwest Europe (Ria Formosa), with a resulting score of Good. A detailed dynamic model was developed for this ecosystem, and the outputs were used to drive the screening model. Four scenarios were run on the research model: pristine, standard (simulates present loading), half and double the current nutrient loading. The Ria Formosa has a short water residence time and eutrophication symptoms are not apparent in the water column. However, benthic symptoms are expressed as excessive macroalgal growth and strong dissolved oxygen fluctuations in the tide pools. The standard simulation results showed an ASSETS grade identical to the field data application. The application of the screening model to the other scenario outputs showed the responsiveness of ASSETS to changes in pressure, state and response, scoring a grade of High under pristine conditions, Good for half the standard scenario and Moderate for double the present loadings. The use of this hybrid approach allows managers to test the outcome of measures against a set of well-defined metrics for the evaluation of state. It additionally provides a way of testing and improving the pressure component of ASSETS. Sensitivity analysis revealed that sub-sampling the output of the research model at a monthly scale, typical for the acquisition of field data, may significantly affect the outcome of the screening model, by overlooking extreme events such as occasional night-time anoxia in tide pools.     

Using a random displacement model to simulate turbulent particle motion in a baroclinic frontal zone: A new implementation scheme and model performance tests

Numerical artifacts can limit accurate simulation of turbulent particle motion when Lagrangian particle-tracking models are implemented in hydrodynamic models with stratified conditions like fronts. Yet, modeling of individual particle motion in frontal regions is critical for understanding sediment dynamics as well as the transport and retention of planktonic organisms. The objective of this research was to develop a numerical technique to accurately simulate turbulent particle motions in a particle-tracking model embedded within a hydrodynamic model of a frontal zone. A new interpolation scheme, the ‘water column profile’ scheme, was developed and used to implement a random displacement model for turbulent particle motions. A new interpolation scheme was necessary because linear interpolation schemes caused artificial aggregation of particles where abrupt changes in vertical diffusivity occurred. The new ‘water column profile’ scheme was used to fit a continuous function (a tension spline) to a smoothed profile of vertical diffusivities at the x–y particle location. The new implementation scheme was checked for artifacts and compared with a standard random walk model using (1) Well Mixed Condition tests, and (2) dye-release experiments. The Well Mixed Condition tests confirmed that the use of the ‘water column profile’ interpolation scheme for implementing the random displacement model significantly reduced numerical artifacts. In dye-release experiments, high concentrations of Eulerian tracer and Lagrangian particles were released at the same location up-estuary of the salt front and tracked for 4 days. After small differences in initial dispersal rates, tracer and particle distributions remained highly correlated (r = 0.84 to 0.99) when a random displacement model was implemented in the particle-tracking model. In contrast, correlation coefficients were substantially lower (r = 0.07 to 0.58) when a random walk model was implemented. In general, model performance tests indicated that the ‘water column interpolation’ scheme was an effective technique for implementing a random displacement model within a hydrodynamic model, and both could be used to accurately simulate diffusion in a highly baroclinic frontal region. The new implementation scheme has the potential to be a useful tool for investigating the influence of hydrodynamic variability on the transport of sediment particles and planktonic organisms in frontal zones.     

Changing accessibility, dwelling price and the spatial distribution of socio-economic activities

In this paper we present an activities-location choice model with endogenous price which simulates, based on Expected Random Utility principle, the behaviour of several agents of the urban system (e.g. the workers distinguished by income, the firms by economic sector) to estimate the spatial distribution of socio-economic activities within the study area as well as the impact of differential changes in accessibility on the dwelling price. The study area for this research is the metropolitan area of Napoli (South Italy), for which we show the results of the model estimation and the results of a “backcasting” analysis.